Rational Shapley Values

Explaining the predictions of opaque machine learning algorithms is an important and challenging task, especially as complex models are increasingly used to assist in high-stakes decisions such as those arising in healthcare and finance. Most popular tools for post-hoc explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) are either insensitive to context (e.g., feature attributions) or difficult to summarize (e.g., counterfactuals). In this paper, I introduce \emph{rational Shapley values}, a novel XAI method that synthesizes and extends these seemingly incompatible approaches in a rigorous, flexible manner. I leverage tools from decision theory and causal modeling to formalize and implement a pragmatic approach that resolves a number of known challenges in XAI. By pairing the distribution of random variables with the appropriate reference class for a given explanation task, I illustrate through theory and experiments how user goals and knowledge can inform and constrain the solution set in an iterative fashion. The method compares favorably to state of the art XAI tools in a range of quantitative and qualitative comparisons.Comment: 20 pages, 3 figures, 7 table

Intrinsically Motivated Reinforcement Learning based Recommendation with Counterfactual Data Augmentation

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has been proven its efficiency in capturing users' dynamic interests in recent literature. However, training a DRL agent is challenging, because of the sparse environment in recommender systems (RS), DRL agents could spend times either exploring informative user-item interaction trajectories or using existing trajectories for policy learning. It is also known as the exploration and exploitation trade-off which affects the recommendation performance significantly when the environment is sparse. It is more challenging to balance the exploration and exploitation in DRL RS where RS agent need to deeply explore the informative trajectories and exploit them efficiently in the context of recommender systems. As a step to address this issue, We design a novel intrinsically ,otivated reinforcement learning method to increase the capability of exploring informative interaction trajectories in the sparse environment, which are further enriched via a counterfactual augmentation strategy for more efficient exploitation. The extensive experiments on six offline datasets and three online simulation platforms demonstrate the superiority of our model to a set of existing state-of-the-art methods

Does Misclassifying Non-confounding Covariates as Confounders Affect the Causal Inference within the Potential Outcomes Framework?

The Potential Outcome Framework (POF) plays a prominent role in the field of causal inference. Most causal inference models based on the POF (CIMs-POF) are designed for eliminating confounding bias and default to an underlying assumption of Confounding Covariates. This assumption posits that the covariates consist solely of confounders. However, the assumption of Confounding Covariates is challenging to maintain in practice, particularly when dealing with high-dimensional covariates. While certain methods have been proposed to differentiate the distinct components of covariates prior to conducting causal inference, the consequences of treating non-confounding covariates as confounders remain unclear. This ambiguity poses a potential risk when conducting causal inference in practical scenarios. In this paper, we present a unified graphical framework for the CIMs-POF, which greatly enhances the comprehension of these models' underlying principles. Using this graphical framework, we quantitatively analyze the extent to which the inference performance of CIMs-POF is influenced when incorporating various types of non-confounding covariates, such as instrumental variables, mediators, colliders, and adjustment variables. The key findings are: in the task of eliminating confounding bias, the optimal scenario is for the covariates to exclusively encompass confounders; in the subsequent task of inferring counterfactual outcomes, the adjustment variables contribute to more accurate inferences. Furthermore, extensive experiments conducted on synthetic datasets consistently validate these theoretical conclusions.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

Less is Better: Recovering Intended-Feature Subspace to Robustify NLU Models

Datasets with significant proportions of bias present threats for training a trustworthy model on NLU tasks. Despite yielding great progress, current debiasing methods impose excessive reliance on the knowledge of bias attributes. Definition of the attributes, however, is elusive and varies across different datasets. Furthermore, leveraging these attributes at input level to bias mitigation may leave a gap between intrinsic properties and the underlying decision rule. To narrow down this gap and liberate the supervision on bias, we suggest extending bias mitigation into feature space. Therefore, a novel model, Recovering Intended-Feature Subspace with Knowledge-Free (RISK) is developed. Assuming that shortcut features caused by various biases are unintended for prediction, RISK views them as redundant features. When delving into a lower manifold to remove redundancies, RISK reveals that an extremely low-dimensional subspace with intended features can robustly represent the highly biased dataset. Empirical results demonstrate our model can consistently improve model generalization to out-of-distribution set, and achieves a new state-of-the-art performance.Comment: Acceptted by COLING 202

De-confounding Representation Learning for Counterfactual Inference on Continuous Treatment via Generative Adversarial Network

Counterfactual inference for continuous rather than binary treatment variables is more common in real-world causal inference tasks. While there are already some sample reweighting methods based on Marginal Structural Model for eliminating the confounding bias, they generally focus on removing the treatment's linear dependence on confounders and rely on the accuracy of the assumed parametric models, which are usually unverifiable. In this paper, we propose a de-confounding representation learning (DRL) framework for counterfactual outcome estimation of continuous treatment by generating the representations of covariates disentangled with the treatment variables. The DRL is a non-parametric model that eliminates both linear and nonlinear dependence between treatment and covariates. Specifically, we train the correlations between the de-confounded representations and the treatment variables against the correlations between the covariate representations and the treatment variables to eliminate confounding bias. Further, a counterfactual inference network is embedded into the framework to make the learned representations serve both de-confounding and trusted inference. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets show that the DRL model performs superiorly in learning de-confounding representations and outperforms state-of-the-art counterfactual inference models for continuous treatment variables. In addition, we apply the DRL model to a real-world medical dataset MIMIC and demonstrate a detailed causal relationship between red cell width distribution and mortality.Comment: 15 pages,4 figure

Advancing Counterfactual Inference through Quantile Regression

The capacity to address counterfactual "what if" inquiries is crucial for understanding and making use of causal influences. Traditional counterfactual inference usually assumes a structural causal model is available. However, in practice, such a causal model is often unknown and may not be identifiable. This paper aims to perform reliable counterfactual inference based on the (learned) qualitative causal structure and observational data, without a given causal model or even directly estimating conditional distributions. We re-cast counterfactual reasoning as an extended quantile regression problem using neural networks. The approach is statistically more efficient than existing ones, and further makes it possible to develop the generalization ability of the estimated counterfactual outcome to unseen data and provide an upper bound on the generalization error. Experiment results on multiple datasets strongly support our theoretical claims