The Effectiveness of Central Bank Forward Guidance Under Inflation and Price-level Targeting

This paper examines the effectiveness of central bank forward guidance under inflation and price-level targeting monetary policies. The results show that the beneficial effects of forward guidance increase if a central bank pursues price-level targeting instead of inflation targeting. Output and inflation respond more favorably to forward guidance with price-level targeting than inflation targeting. A monetary policy rule that aggressively reacts to inflation and includes interest rate inertia narrows the performance gap between the two policy regimes. However, forward guidance with price-level targeting is still preferred to forward guidance with inflation targeting after performing multiple robustness checks

One decade of inflation targeting in the world : What do we know and what do we need to know?

One decade of inflation targeting in the world offers lessons on the design and implementation of inflation targeting, the conduct of monetary policy, and country performance under inflation targeting. This paper reviews briefly the main design features of 18 inflation targeting experiences, analyzes statistically if countries under inflation targeting are structurally different from non-inflation targeting industrial countries, and reviews existing evidence about the success of inflation targeting. The interaction of inflation targeting design features and the conduct of monetary policy during transition to low inflation are tackled next. The paper ends by focusing on unresolved issues on design and implementation of inflation targeting and their relation to the conduct of monetary policy – open issues that have to be addressed in the next decade of inflation targeting.

One Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?

One decade of inflation targeting in the world offers lessons on the design and implementation of inflation targeting, the conduct of monetary policy, and country performance under inflation targeting. This paper reviews briefly the main design features of 18 inflation targeting experiences, analyzes statistically if countries under inflation targeting are structurally different from non-inflation targeting industrial countries, and reviews existing evidence about the success of inflation targeting. The interaction of inflation targeting design features and the conduct of monetary policy during transition to low inflation are tackled next. The paper ends by focusing on unresolved issues on design and implementation of inflation targeting and their relation to the conduct of monetary policy open issues that have to be addressed in the next decade of inflation targeting.

Inflation Forecast Targeting in an Overlapping Generations Model

In the framework of a standard overlapping generations model, it is shown that active inflation forecast targeting reinforces mechanisms that lead to indeterminacy of the monetary steady state and to countercyclical behavior of young-age consumption. The inflation forecast targeting rule which minimizes the volatility of inflation can be active or passive, depending on the characteristics of shocks and the risk aversion of households. Inflation forecast errors are always greater under active inflation forecast targeting than under passive inflation forecast targeting or strict money growth targeting. The monetary steady state is more likely to be indeterminate under an active rule of inflation forecast targeting than under the corresponding backward-looking rule (inflation targeting), but backward-looking rules can render the monetary steady state unstable.Monetary policy, Inflation forecast targeting, Overlapping generations model

Monetary policy and inflation targeting in the United States.

Should monetary policymakers in the U.S. adopt explicit inflation targeting? After all, the Fed has steadily reduced inflation over the past 25 years without resorting to an explicit inflation target. But having achieved price stability, we must now deal with the matter of maintaining it. In "Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting in the United States," President Anthony Santomero returns to the topic of inflation targeting, which he first discussed in the spring of 2003. This time, he expands that discussion by proposing a specific inflation targeting programMonetary policy ; Inflation (Finance)

Inflation targeting and inflation persistence

This paper argues that the adoption of an inflation target reduces the persistence of inflation. We develop the theoretical literature on inflation persistence by introducing a Taylor rule for monetary policy into a model of persistence and showing that inflation targets reduce inflation persistence. We investigate changes in the time series properties of inflation in seven countries that introduced inflation targets in the late 1980s or early 1990s. We find that the persistence of inflation is greatly reduced or eliminated following the introduction of inflation targets

Degree of Openness and Inflation Targeting Policy: Model of a Small Open Economy

In this paper, we present the dynamics of a Neo-Keynesian model applied to a small open economy in order to study the impact of openness on the choice of the appropriate inflation targeting policy. In the event of exogenous shocks, we can use either a CPI inflation targeting policy or a domestic inflation targeting policy. We conclude that there is a relation between the degree of openness of the economy and the type of infation targeting policy. By considering a domestic shock, when the economy is more open towards outside, we may find that the adoption of CPI inflation targeting is benefical. Whereas in the event of foreign shock, the optimal rule would be the domestic inflation targeting. By considering the criteria of social welfare, we find that for an important degree of openness, the policy of CPI inflation targeting remains the optimal monetary rule.Monetary policy, Domestic Inflation, CPI Inflation, Pass-Through, Degree of Openness

Inflation Targeting and Regional Inflation Persistence: Evidence from Korea

The adoption of a credible monetary policy regime such as inflation targeting is known to reduce the persistence of inflation fluctuations. This conclusion, however, is derived from aggregate inflation or sectoral inflation rates, not from regional inflation data. This paper studies the regional dimension of inflation targeting, i.e. the consequences of inflation targeting for regional inflation persistence. Based on data for Korean cities and provinces it is shown that the adoption of inflation targeting leads (i) to a fall in inflation persistence at the regional level and (ii) to a reduction in the cross-regional heterogeneity in inflation persistence. A common factor model lends further support to the role of the common component, and hence monetary policy, for regional inflation persistence.inflation targeting, inflation persistence, monetary policy regime, regional inflation, factor model

Inflation Target Fulfillment in the Czech Republic in 1998–2007: Some Stylized Facts

This paper provides some stylized facts of inflation target fulfillment in the Czech Republic in 1998–2007. In the first part, it discusses briefly the general macroeconomic conditions of the Czech inflation targeting regime, including an identification of the main shocks affecting its performance. The second part compares the extent of inflation target non-fulfillment in the Czech Republic with the experience of other inflation targeting countries. It turns out that the success rate in terms of inflation target fulfillment has changed over time. While in the early phase of inflation targeting the deviations of inflation from the CNB’s targets were high by international comparison, more recently the CNB has converged to the track record of relatively successful inflation targeting central banks.monetary policy, inflation targeting

Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule

The purpose of the paper is to survey and discuss inflation targeting in the context of monetary policy rules. The paper provides a general conceptual discussion of monetary policy rules, attempts to clarify the essential characteristics of inflation targeting, compares inflation targeting to the other monetary policy rules, and draws some conclusions for the monetary policy of the European system of Central Banks