A Point Decision For Partially Identified Auction Models

This paper proposes a decision theoretic method to choose a single reserve price for partially identified auction models, such as Haile and Tamer, 2003, using data on transaction prices from English auctions. The paper employs Gilboa and Schmeidler, 1989 for inference that is robust with respect to the prior over unidentified parameters. It is optimal to interpret the transaction price as the highest value, and maximize the posterior mean of the seller’s revenue. The Monte Carlo study shows substantial gains relative to the average revenues of the Haile and Tamer interval.

Optimal pricing using online auction experiments: A P\'olya tree approach

We show how a retailer can estimate the optimal price of a new product using observed transaction prices from online second-price auction experiments. For this purpose we propose a Bayesian P\'olya tree approach which, given the limited nature of the data, requires a specially tailored implementation. Avoiding the need for a priori parametric assumptions, the P\'olya tree approach allows for flexible inference of the valuation distribution, leading to more robust estimation of optimal price than competing parametric approaches. In collaboration with an online jewelry retailer, we illustrate how our methodology can be combined with managerial prior knowledge to estimate the profit maximizing price of a new jewelry product.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS503 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Maximum Weight Matching via Max-Product Belief Propagation

Max-product "belief propagation" is an iterative, local, message-passing algorithm for finding the maximum a posteriori (MAP) assignment of a discrete probability distribution specified by a graphical model. Despite the spectacular success of the algorithm in many application areas such as iterative decoding, computer vision and combinatorial optimization which involve graphs with many cycles, theoretical results about both correctness and convergence of the algorithm are known in few cases (Weiss-Freeman Wainwright, Yeddidia-Weiss-Freeman, Richardson-Urbanke}. In this paper we consider the problem of finding the Maximum Weight Matching (MWM) in a weighted complete bipartite graph. We define a probability distribution on the bipartite graph whose MAP assignment corresponds to the MWM. We use the max-product algorithm for finding the MAP of this distribution or equivalently, the MWM on the bipartite graph. Even though the underlying bipartite graph has many short cycles, we find that surprisingly, the max-product algorithm always converges to the correct MAP assignment as long as the MAP assignment is unique. We provide a bound on the number of iterations required by the algorithm and evaluate the computational cost of the algorithm. We find that for a graph of size $n$, the computational cost of the algorithm scales as $O(n^3)$, which is the same as the computational cost of the best known algorithm. Finally, we establish the precise relation between the max-product algorithm and the celebrated {\em auction} algorithm proposed by Bertsekas. This suggests possible connections between dual algorithm and max-product algorithm for discrete optimization problems.Comment: In the proceedings of the 2005 IEEE International Symposium on Information Theor