Biologically inspired evolutionary temporal neural circuits

Biological neural networks have always motivated creation of new artificial neural networks, and in this case a new autonomous temporal neural network system. Among the more challenging problems of temporal neural networks are the design and incorporation of short and long-term memories as well as the choice of network topology and training mechanism. In general, delayed copies of network signals can form short-term memory (STM), providing a limited temporal history of events similar to FIR filters, whereas the synaptic connection strengths as well as delayed feedback loops (ER circuits) can constitute longer-term memories (LTM). This dissertation introduces a new general evolutionary temporal neural network framework (GETnet) through automatic design of arbitrary neural networks with STM and LTM. GETnet is a step towards realization of general intelligent systems that need minimum or no human intervention and can be applied to a broad range of problems. GETnet utilizes nonlinear moving average/autoregressive nodes and sub-circuits that are trained by enhanced gradient descent and evolutionary search in terms of architecture, synaptic delay, and synaptic weight spaces. The mixture of Lamarckian and Darwinian evolutionary mechanisms facilitates the Baldwin effect and speeds up the hybrid training. The ability to evolve arbitrary adaptive time-delay connections enables GETnet to find novel answers to many classification and system identification tasks expressed in the general form of desired multidimensional input and output signals. Simulations using Mackey-Glass chaotic time series and fingerprint perspiration-induced temporal variations are given to demonstrate the above stated capabilities of GETnet

Data Science for Finance: Targeted Learning from (Big) Data to Economic Stability and Financial Risk Management

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor in Information Management, specialization in Statistics and EconometricsThe modelling, measurement, and management of systemic financial stability remains a critical issue in most countries. Policymakers, regulators, and managers depend on complex models for financial stability and risk management. The models are compelled to be robust, realistic, and consistent with all relevant available data. This requires great data disclosure, which is deemed to have the highest quality standards. However, stressed situations, financial crises, and pandemics are the source of many new risks with new requirements such as new data sources and different models. This dissertation aims to show the data quality challenges of high-risk situations such as pandemics or economic crisis and it try to theorize the new machine learning models for predictive and longitudes time series models. In the first study (Chapter Two) we analyzed and compared the quality of official datasets available for COVID-19 as a best practice for a recent high-risk situation with dramatic effects on financial stability. We used comparative statistical analysis to evaluate the accuracy of data collection by a national (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention) and two international (World Health Organization; European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control) organizations based on the value of systematic measurement errors. We combined excel files, text mining techniques, and manual data entries to extract the COVID-19 data from official reports and to generate an accurate profile for comparisons. The findings show noticeable and increasing measurement errors in the three datasets as the pandemic outbreak expanded and more countries contributed data for the official repositories, raising data comparability concerns and pointing to the need for better coordination and harmonized statistical methods. The study offers a COVID-19 combined dataset and dashboard with minimum systematic measurement errors and valuable insights into the potential problems in using databanks without carefully examining the metadata and additional documentation that describe the overall context of data. In the second study (Chapter Three) we discussed credit risk as the most significant source of risk in banking as one of the most important sectors of financial institutions. We proposed a new machine learning approach for online credit scoring which is enough conservative and robust for unstable and high-risk situations. This Chapter is aimed at the case of credit scoring in risk management and presents a novel method to be used for the default prediction of high-risk branches or customers. This study uses the Kruskal-Wallis non-parametric statistic to form a conservative credit-scoring model and to study its impact on modeling performance on the benefit of the credit provider. The findings show that the new credit scoring methodology represents a reasonable coefficient of determination and a very low false-negative rate. It is computationally less expensive with high accuracy with around 18% improvement in Recall/Sensitivity. Because of the recent perspective of continued credit/behavior scoring, our study suggests using this credit score for non-traditional data sources for online loan providers to allow them to study and reveal changes in client behavior over time and choose the reliable unbanked customers, based on their application data. This is the first study that develops an online non-parametric credit scoring system, which can reselect effective features automatically for continued credit evaluation and weigh them out by their level of contribution with a good diagnostic ability. In the third study (Chapter Four) we focus on the financial stability challenges faced by insurance companies and pension schemes when managing systematic (undiversifiable) mortality and longevity risk. For this purpose, we first developed a new ensemble learning strategy for panel time-series forecasting and studied its applications to tracking respiratory disease excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. The layered learning approach is a solution related to ensemble learning to address a given predictive task by different predictive models when direct mapping from inputs to outputs is not accurate. We adopt a layered learning approach to an ensemble learning strategy to solve the predictive tasks with improved predictive performance and take advantage of multiple learning processes into an ensemble model. In this proposed strategy, the appropriate holdout for each model is specified individually. Additionally, the models in the ensemble are selected by a proposed selection approach to be combined dynamically based on their predictive performance. It provides a high-performance ensemble model to automatically cope with the different kinds of time series for each panel member. For the experimental section, we studied more than twelve thousand observations in a portfolio of 61-time series (countries) of reported respiratory disease deaths with monthly sampling frequency to show the amount of improvement in predictive performance. We then compare each country’s forecasts of respiratory disease deaths generated by our model with the corresponding COVID-19 deaths in 2020. The results of this large set of experiments show that the accuracy of the ensemble model is improved noticeably by using different holdouts for different contributed time series methods based on the proposed model selection method. These improved time series models provide us proper forecasting of respiratory disease deaths for each country, exhibiting high correlation (0.94) with Covid-19 deaths in 2020. In the fourth study (Chapter Five) we used the new ensemble learning approach for time series modeling, discussed in the previous Chapter, accompany by K-means clustering for forecasting life tables in COVID-19 times. Stochastic mortality modeling plays a critical role in public pension design, population and public health projections, and in the design, pricing, and risk management of life insurance contracts and longevity-linked securities. There is no general method to forecast the mortality rate applicable to all situations especially for unusual years such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In this Chapter, we investigate the feasibility of using an ensemble of traditional and machine learning time series methods to empower forecasts of age-specific mortality rates for groups of countries that share common longevity trends. We use Generalized Age-Period-Cohort stochastic mortality models to capture age and period effects, apply K-means clustering to time series to group countries following common longevity trends, and use ensemble learning to forecast life expectancy and annuity prices by age and sex. To calibrate models, we use data for 14 European countries from 1960 to 2018. The results show that the ensemble method presents the best robust results overall with minimum RMSE in the presence of structural changes in the shape of time series at the time of COVID-19. In this dissertation’s conclusions (Chapter Six), we provide more detailed insights about the overall contributions of this dissertation on the financial stability and risk management by data science, opportunities, limitations, and avenues for future research about the application of data science in finance and economy

Ensemble classification of incomplete data – a non-imputation approach with an application in ovarian tumour diagnosis support

Wydział Matematyki i InformatykiW niniejszej pracy doktorskiej zająłem się problemem klasyfikacji danych niekompletnych. Motywacja do podjęcia badań ma swoje źródło w medycynie, gdzie bardzo często występuje zjawisko braku danych. Najpopularniejszą metodą radzenia sobie z tym problemem jest imputacja danych, będąca uzupełnieniem brakujących wartości na podstawie statystycznych zależności między cechami. W moich badaniach przyjąłem inną strategię rozwiązania tego problemu. Wykorzystując opracowane wcześniej klasyfikatory można przekształcić je do formy, która zwraca przedział możliwych predykcji. Następnie, poprzez zastosowanie operatorów agregacji oraz metod progowania, można dokonać finalnej klasyfikacji. W niniejszej pracy pokazuję jak dokonać ww. przekształcenia klasyfikatorów oraz jak wykorzystać strategie agregacji danych przedziałowych do klasyfikacji. Opracowane przeze mnie metody podnoszą jakość klasyfikacji danych niekompletnych w problemie wspomagania diagnostyki guzów jajnika. Dodatkowa analiza wyników na zewnętrznych zbiorach danych z repozytorium uczenia maszynowego Uniwersytetu Kalifornijskiego w Irvine (UCI) wskazuje, że przedstawione metody są komplementarne z imputacją.In this doctoral dissertation I focus on the problem of classification of incomplete data. The motivation for the research comes from medicine, where missing data phenomena are commonly encountered. The most popular method of dealing with data missingness is imputation; that is, inserting missing data on the basis of statistical relationships among features. In my research I choose a different strategy for dealing with this issue. Classifiers of a type previously developed can be transformed to a form which returns an interval of possible predictions. In the next step, with the use of aggregation operators and thresholding methods, one can make a final classification. I show how to make such transformations of classifiers and how to use aggregation strategies for interval data classification. These methods improve the quality of the process of classification of incomplete data in the problem of ovarian tumour diagnosis. Additional analysis carried out on external datasets from the University of California, Irvine (UCI) Machine Learning Repository shows that the aforementioned methods are complementary to imputation

Political Arabic Articles Orientation Using Rough Set Theory with Sentiment Lexicon

Sentiment analysis is an emerging research field that can be integrated with other domains, including data mining, natural language processing and machine learning. In political articles, it is difficult to understand and summarise the state or overall views due to the diversity and size of social media information. A number of studies were conducted in the area of sentiment analysis, especially using English texts, while Arabic language received less attention in the literature. In this study, we propose a detection model for political orientation articles in the Arabic language. We introduce the key assumptions of the model, present and discuss the obtained results, and highlight the issues that still need to be explored to further our understanding of subjective sentences. The main purpose of applying this new approach based on Rough Set (RS) theory is to increase the accuracy of the models in recognizing the orientation of the articles. We present extensive simulation results, which demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model over other algorithms. It is shown that the performance of the proposed approach significantly improves by adding discriminating features. To summarize, the proposed approach demonstrates an accuracy of 85.483%, when evaluating the orientation of political Arabic datasets, compared to 72.58% and 64.516% for the Support Vector Machines and Naïve Bayes methods, respectively

Data mining in computational finance

Computational finance is a relatively new discipline whose birth can be traced back to early 1950s. Its major objective is to develop and study practical models focusing on techniques that apply directly to financial analyses. The large number of decisions and computationally intensive problems involved in this discipline make data mining and machine learning models an integral part to improve, automate, and expand the current processes. One of the objectives of this research is to present a state-of-the-art of the data mining and machine learning techniques applied in the core areas of computational finance. Next, detailed analysis of public and private finance datasets is performed in an attempt to find interesting facts from data and draw conclusions regarding the usefulness of features within the datasets. Credit risk evaluation is one of the crucial modern concerns in this field. Credit scoring is essentially a classification problem where models are built using the information about past applicants to categorise new applicants as ‘creditworthy’ or ‘non-creditworthy’. We appraise the performance of a few classical machine learning algorithms for the problem of credit scoring. Typically, credit scoring databases are large and characterised by redundant and irrelevant features, making the classification task more computationally-demanding. Feature selection is the process of selecting an optimal subset of relevant features. We propose an improved information-gain directed wrapper feature selection method using genetic algorithms and successfully evaluate its effectiveness against baseline and generic wrapper methods using three benchmark datasets. One of the tasks of financial analysts is to estimate a company’s worth. In the last piece of work, this study predicts the growth rate for earnings of companies using three machine learning techniques. We employed the technique of lagged features, which allowed varying amounts of recent history to be brought into the prediction task, and transformed the time series forecasting problem into a supervised learning problem. This work was applied on a private time series dataset

Improved techniques for phishing email detection based on random forest and firefly-based support vector machine learning algorithms.

Master of Science in Computer Science. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 2014.Electronic fraud is one of the major challenges faced by the vast majority of online internet users today. Curbing this menace is not an easy task, primarily because of the rapid rate at which fraudsters change their mode of attack. Many techniques have been proposed in the academic literature to handle e-fraud. Some of them include: blacklist, whitelist, and machine learning (ML) based techniques. Among all these techniques, ML-based techniques have proven to be the most efficient, because of their ability to detect new fraudulent attacks as they appear.There are three commonly perpetrated electronic frauds, namely: email spam, phishing and network intrusion. Among these three, more financial loss has been incurred owing to phishing attacks. This research investigates and reports the use of MLand Nature Inspired technique in the domain of phishing detection, with the foremost objective of developing a dynamic and robust phishing email classifier with improved classification accuracy and reduced processing time.Two approaches to phishing email detection are proposed, and two email classifiers are developed based on the proposed approaches. In the first approach, a random forest algorithm is used to construct decision trees,which are,in turn,used for email classification. The second approach introduced a novel MLmethod that hybridizes firefly algorithm (FFA) and support vector machine (SVM). The hybridized method consists of three major stages: feature extraction phase, hyper-parameter selection phase and email classification phase. In the feature extraction phase, the feature vectors of all the features described in Section 3.6 are extracted and saved in a file for easy access.In the second stage, a novel hyper-parameter search algorithm, developed in this research, is used to generate exponentially growing sequence of paired C and Gamma (γ) values. FFA is then used to optimize the generated SVM hyper-parameters and to also find the best hyper-parameter pair. Finally, in the third phase, SVM is used to carry out the classification. This new approach addresses the problem of hyper-parameter optimization in SVM, and in turn, improves the classification speed and accuracy of SVM. Using two publicly available email datasets, some experiments are performed to evaluate the performance of the two proposed phishing email detection techniques. During the evaluation of each approach, a set of features (well suited for phishing detection) are extracted from the training dataset and used to constructthe classifiers. Thereafter, the trained classifiers are evaluated on the test dataset. The evaluations produced very good results. The RF-based classifier yielded a classification accuracy of 99.70%, a FP rate of 0.06% and a FN rate of 2.50%. Also, the hybridized classifier (known as FFA_SVM) produced a classification accuracy of 99.99%, a FP rate of 0.01% and a FN rate of 0.00%

Trajectory prediction of moving objects by means of neural networks

Thesis (Master)--Izmir Institute of Technology, Computer Engineering, Izmir, 1997Includes bibliographical references (leaves: 103-105)Text in English; Abstract: Turkish and Englishviii, 105 leavesEstimating the three-dimensional motion of an object from a sequence of object positions and orientation is of significant importance in variety of applications in control and robotics. For instance, autonomous navigation, manipulation, servo, tracking, planning and surveillance needs prediction of motion parameters. Although "motion estimation" is an old problem (the formulations date back to the beginning of the century), only recently scientists have provided with the tools from nonlinear system estimation theory to solve this problem eural Networks are the ones which have recently been used in many nonlinear dynamic system parameter estimation context. The approximating ability of the neural network is used to identifY the relation between system variables and parameters of a dynamic system. The position, velocity and acceleration of the object are estimated by several neural networks using the II most recent measurements of the object coordinates as input to the system Several neural network topologies with different configurations are introduced and utilized in the solution of the problem. Training schemes for each configuration are given in detail. Simulation results for prediction of motion having different characteristics via different architectures with alternative configurations are presented comparatively

Adaptive Cognitive Interaction Systems

Adaptive kognitive Interaktionssysteme beobachten und modellieren den Zustand ihres Benutzers und passen das Systemverhalten entsprechend an. Ein solches System besteht aus drei Komponenten: Dem empirischen kognitiven Modell, dem komputationalen kognitiven Modell und dem adaptiven Interaktionsmanager. Die vorliegende Arbeit enthält zahlreiche Beiträge zur Entwicklung dieser Komponenten sowie zu deren Kombination. Die Ergebnisse werden in zahlreichen Benutzerstudien validiert