Volatility Prediction using Financial Disclosures Sentiments with Word Embedding-based IR Models

Volatility prediction--an essential concept in financial markets--has recently been addressed using sentiment analysis methods. We investigate the sentiment of annual disclosures of companies in stock markets to forecast volatility. We specifically explore the use of recent Information Retrieval (IR) term weighting models that are effectively extended by related terms using word embeddings. In parallel to textual information, factual market data have been widely used as the mainstream approach to forecast market risk. We therefore study different fusion methods to combine text and market data resources. Our word embedding-based approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods. In addition, we investigate the characteristics of the reports of the companies in different financial sectors

Stock market prediction using machine learning classifiers and social media, news

Accurate stock market prediction is of great interest to investors; however, stock markets are driven by volatile factors such as microblogs and news that make it hard to predict stock market index based on merely the historical data. The enormous stock market volatility emphasizes the need to effectively assess the role of external factors in stock prediction. Stock markets can be predicted using machine learning algorithms on information contained in social media and financial news, as this data can change investors’ behavior. In this paper, we use algorithms on social media and financial news data to discover the impact of this data on stock market prediction accuracy for ten subsequent days. For improving performance and quality of predictions, feature selection and spam tweets reduction are performed on the data sets. Moreover, we perform experiments to find such stock markets that are difficult to predict and those that are more influenced by social media and financial news. We compare results of different algorithms to find a consistent classifier. Finally, for achieving maximum prediction accuracy, deep learning is used and some classifiers are ensembled. Our experimental results show that highest prediction accuracies of 80.53% and 75.16% are achieved using social media and financial news, respectively. We also show that New York and Red Hat stock markets are hard to predict, New York and IBM stocks are more influenced by social media, while London and Microsoft stocks by financial news. Random forest classifier is found to be consistent and highest accuracy of 83.22% is achieved by its ensemble

Prediction of Stock Market Volatility Utilizing Sentiment from News and Social Media Texts : A study on the practical implementation of sentiment analysis and deep learning models for predicting day-ahead volatility

This thesis studies the impact of sentiment on the prediction of volatility for 100 of the largest stocks in the S&P500 index. The purpose is to find out if sentiment can improve the forecast of day-ahead volatility wherein volatility is measured as the realized volatility of intraday returns. The textual data has been gathered from three different sources: Eikon, Twitter, and Reddit. The data consists of respectively 397 564 headlines from Eikon, 35 811 098 tweets, and 4 109 008 comments from Reddit. These numbers represent the uncleaned data before filtration. The data has been collected for the period between 01.08.2021 and 31.08.2022. Sentiment is calculated by the FinBERT model, an NLP model created by further pre-training of the BERT model on financial text. To predict volatility with the sentiment from FinBERT, three different deep learning models have been applied: A feed forward neural network, a recurrent neural network, and a long short-term memory model. They are used to solve both regression and classification problems. The inference analysis shows significant effects from the computed sentiment variables, and it implies that there exists a correlation between the number of text items and volatility. This is in line with previous literature on sentiment and volatility. The results from the deep learning models show that sentiment has an impact on the prediction of volatility. Both in terms of lower MSE and MAE for the regression problem and higher accuracy for the classification problem. Moreover, this thesis looks at potential weaknesses that could influence the validity of the results. Potential weaknesses include how sentiment is represented, noise in the data, and the Absftarcatc tthat the FinBERT model is not trained on financial oriented text from social media.nhhma