Improving Estimation in Functional Linear Regression with Points of Impact: Insights into Google AdWords

The functional linear regression model with points of impact is a recent augmentation of the classical functional linear model with many practically important applications. In this work, however, we demonstrate that the existing data-driven procedure for estimating the parameters of this regression model can be very instable and inaccurate. The tendency to omit relevant points of impact is a particularly problematic aspect resulting in omitted-variable biases. We explain the theoretical reason for this problem and propose a new sequential estimation algorithm that leads to significantly improved estimation results. Our estimation algorithm is compared with the existing estimation procedure using an in-depth simulation study. The applicability is demonstrated using data from Google AdWords, today's most important platform for online advertisements. The \textsf{R}-package \texttt{FunRegPoI} and additional \textsf{R}-codes are provided in the online supplementary material

Rec4Ad: A Free Lunch to Mitigate Sample Selection Bias for Ads CTR Prediction in Taobao

Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction serves as a fundamental component in online advertising. A common practice is to train a CTR model on advertisement (ad) impressions with user feedback. Since ad impressions are purposely selected by the model itself, their distribution differs from the inference distribution and thus exhibits sample selection bias (SSB) that affects model performance. Existing studies on SSB mainly employ sample re-weighting techniques which suffer from high variance and poor model calibration. Another line of work relies on costly uniform data that is inadequate to train industrial models. Thus mitigating SSB in industrial models with a uniform-data-free framework is worth exploring. Fortunately, many platforms display mixed results of organic items (i.e., recommendations) and sponsored items (i.e., ads) to users, where impressions of ads and recommendations are selected by different systems but share the same user decision rationales. Based on the above characteristics, we propose to leverage recommendations samples as a free lunch to mitigate SSB for ads CTR model (Rec4Ad). After elaborating data augmentation, Rec4Ad learns disentangled representations with alignment and decorrelation modules for enhancement. When deployed in Taobao display advertising system, Rec4Ad achieves substantial gains in key business metrics, with a lift of up to +6.6\% CTR and +2.9\% RPM

COPR: Consistency-Oriented Pre-Ranking for Online Advertising

Cascading architecture has been widely adopted in large-scale advertising systems to balance efficiency and effectiveness. In this architecture, the pre-ranking model is expected to be a lightweight approximation of the ranking model, which handles more candidates with strict latency requirements. Due to the gap in model capacity, the pre-ranking and ranking models usually generate inconsistent ranked results, thus hurting the overall system effectiveness. The paradigm of score alignment is proposed to regularize their raw scores to be consistent. However, it suffers from inevitable alignment errors and error amplification by bids when applied in online advertising. To this end, we introduce a consistency-oriented pre-ranking framework for online advertising, which employs a chunk-based sampling module and a plug-and-play rank alignment module to explicitly optimize consistency of ECPM-ranked results. A $\Delta NDCG$-based weighting mechanism is adopted to better distinguish the importance of inter-chunk samples in optimization. Both online and offline experiments have validated the superiority of our framework. When deployed in Taobao display advertising system, it achieves an improvement of up to +12.3\% CTR and +5.6\% RPM

Capacity-building activities related to climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment and economic valuation for Fiji

The Terms of Reference for this work specified three objectives to the Fiji component: Objective 1a: to provide a prototype FIJICLIM model (covered under PICCAP funding) Objective 1b: to provide training and transfer of FIJICLIM Objective 1c: to present and evaluate World Bank study findings and to identify future directions for development and use of FIJICLIM (2-day workshop) Proceedings of the training course and workshop were prepared by the Fiji Department of Environment. The summaries from these proceedings reflect a very high degree of success with the contracted activities