Diagnostic reasoning approaches and success rates in bomb disposal

As professions, medicine and bomb disposal have many similarities, with one easily recognizable commonality being that practitioners in both disciplines rely on decision-making that is objective, dispassionate, and to the largest extent possible, grounded in scientific theory. Using research methodologies honed over decades in the medical community, this study investigates diagnostic reasoning approaches and success rates in the bomb disposal community, as viewed through the lens of improvised explosive device (IED) circuit analysis, which includes component identification, hazard assessment, and circuit type-by-function determination. The population for this study consisted of current and former military and civilian bomb technicians, and factors such as years of bomb disposal experience, length of initial training, and specialized IED training were analyzed to determine effects on success rates. A convergent mixed-methods design with a pragmatistic worldview was used, and the data gathered suggests that overall, no variables assessed had any effect on a bomb technician’s ability to successfully perform component identification, assessment of associated hazards, and determination of circuit type-by-function. Quantitatively, average success rates for study participants, by independent variable, showed no statistically significant differences, except for those who attended specific bomb disposal schools for their initial training, and only for circuit type-by-function determinations. Average success rates for study participants were 20% for component identification; 16% for associated hazards; and 51% for circuit type-by-function. Qualitatively, over 90% of participants used Type 1 decision-making (i.e., heuristics and pattern matching) as their diagnostic reasoning approach, and focused on component identification and circuit configurations in determining hazards associated with devices, and circuit type-by-function. Additionally, an analysis of component and hazard selections clearly suggests that bomb technicians key in on specific components, and these selections drive their further analysis. Self-assessed confidence-level data also suggests that study participants significantly over-rated their ability to recognize components, assess hazards, and determine circuit type-by-function. The results of this study can be used by thought leaders and trainers in the bomb disposal community to push for fostering and improving diagnostic reasoning skills, problem-solving, and critical thinking, which in turn should lead to a reduction in operational errors during IED response operations