Complex systems science: expert consultation report

Executive SummaryA new programme of research in Complex Systems Science must be initiated by FETThe science of complex systems (CS) is essential to establish rigorous scientific principles on which to develop the future ICT systems that are critical to the well-being, safety and prosperity of Europe and its citizens. As the “ICT incubator and pathfinder for new ideas and themes for long-term research in the area of information and communication technologies” FET must initiate a significant new programme of research in complex systems science to underpin research and development in ICT. Complex Systems Science is a “blue sky” research laboratory for R&D in ICT and their applications. In July 2009, ASSYST was given a set of probing questions concerning FET funding for ICT-related complex systems research. This document is based on the CS community’s response.Complex systems research has made considerable progress and is delivering new scienceSince FET began supporting CS research, considerable progress has been made. Building on previous understanding of concepts such as emergence from interactions, far-from-equilibrium systems, border of chaos and self-organised criticality, recent CS research is now delivering rigorous theory through methods of statistical physics, network theory, and computer simulation. CS research increasingly demands high-throughput data streams and new ICT-based methods of observing and reconstructing, i.e. modelling, the dynamics from those data in areas as diverse as embryogenesis, neuroscience, transport, epidemics, linguistics, meteorology, and robotics. CS research is also beginning to address the problem of engineering robust systems of systems of systems that can adapt to changing environments, including the perplexing problem that ICT systems are too often fragile and non-adaptive.Recommendation: A Programme of Research in Complex Systems Science to Support ICTFundamental theory in Complex Systems Science is needed, but this can only be achieved through real-world applications involving large, heterogeneous, and messy data sets, including people and organisations. A long-term vision is needed. Realistic targets can be set. Fundamental research can be ensured by requiring that teams include mathematicians, computer scientists, physicists and computational social scientists.One research priority is to develop a formalism for multilevel systems of systems of systems, applicable to all areas including biology, economics, security, transportation, robotics, health, agriculture, ecology, and climate change. Another related research priority is a scientific perspective on the integration of the new science with policy and its implementation, including ethical problems related to privacy and equality.A further priority is the need for education in complex systems science. Conventional education continues to be domain-dominated, producing scientists who are for the most part still lacking fundamental knowledge in core areas of mathematics, computation, statistical physics, and social systems. Therefore:1. We recommend that FET fund a new programme of work in complex systems science as essential research for progress in the development of new kinds of ICT systems.2. We have identified the dynamics of multilevel systems as the area in complex systems science requiring a major paradigm shift, beyond which significant scientific progress cannot be made.3. We propose a call requiring: fundamental research in complex systems science; new mathematical and computational formalisms to be developed; involving a large ‘guinea pig’ organisation; research into policy and its meta-level information dynamics; and that all research staff have interdisciplinary knowledge through an education programme.Tangible outcomes, potential users of the new science, its impact and measures of successUsers include (i) the private and public sectors using ICT to manage complex systems and (ii) researchers in ICT, CSS, and all complex domains. The tangible output of a call will be new knowledge on the nature of complex systems in general, new knowledge of the particular complex system(s) studied, and new knowledge of the fundamental role played by ICT in the research and implementation to create real systems addressing real-world problems. The impact of the call will be seen through new high added-value opportunities in the public and private sectors, new high added-value ICT technologies, and new high added-value science to support innovation in ICT research and development. The measure of success will be through the delivery of these high added-value outcomes, and new science to better understand failures

Do Information and Communication Technologies Empower Female Workers? Firm-Level Evidence from Viet Nam

This paper studies the effects of firms’ investments in information and communication technologies (ICT) on their demand for female and skilled workers. Using the gradual liberalization of the broadband Internet sector across provinces from 2006 to 2009 as a source of exogenous variation to identify the causal impacts of ICT, we find evidence from the country’s comprehensive enterprise survey data that firms’ adoption of broadband Internet and other related ICT increased their relative demand for female and college-educated workers. The effect of ICT on firms’ female employment is particularly strong among the college-educated workers, and is stronger in industries that are more dependent on highly manual and physical tasks. These results suggest that ICT can lower gender inequality in the labor market by shifting the labor demand from highly manual, routine tasks in which men have a comparative advantage toward more nonroutine, interactive tasks in which women hold a comparative advantage. However, the effect of ICT is weaker in industries relying more on complex and interactive tasks, suggesting that gender differences in education may have limited female labor supply for the most innovative industries that require highly technical skills to complement ICT

The Role of ICT in Women's Empowerment in Rural\ud Bangladesh

Rural women in Bangladesh have limited access to resources and public\ud spheres due to socio-cultural restrictions. Women suffer from severe\ud discrimination, and it is thought this is heightened due to a lack of access to\ud information. Information communication and technology (ICT) is a potential tool\ud that can reach rural women and enrich their knowledge. This paper discusses\ud women‟s empowerment in terms of perceptual change in rural villages in\ud Bangladesh after ICT intervention has been introduced by Non-Government\ud Organizations (NGOs). Since empowerment is a complex phenomenon to measure\ud because of its multidimensional aspects and its relationship with time as a process,\ud the methodology used in this research was an integration of qualitative and\ud quantitative methods. Using a structured questionnaire, data was collected from\ud women in two different villages where ICT projects have been introduced. The\ud change in women‟s perception after using ICT was compared with changes in\ud women who did not use ICT. The results indicate that ICT intervention changed\ud women‟s perception in a positive direction in one village but it did not change in\ud the other village

ICT, Skills and Organisational Change: Evidence from a Panel of Italian Manufacturing Firms

This paper explores the complementarity between skills, organizational change and investments in information and communication technology (ICT). Our work contributes to the literature on the effects of ICT by testing the hypothesis of complementarity in a panel of 540 Italian manufacturing firms during the period 1995-2000. Our analysis provides strong support to the hypothesis of complementarity between skills and ICT (which is at the core of the skill-biased technical change theory). We also find some evidence in favour of the skill-biased organizational change hypothesis. The results obtained by drawing on different statistical methods suggest that interactions among ICT, skills and organizational change are complex and non-linear and difficult to explain.Organisational Change, ICT Investment, Workplace Organization, Human Capital, Productivity

Will Broadband Networks Make the World Greener? Evaluating Pros and Cons of Broadband Development

The environmental issue has generally received much attention from the public for decades, especially as a result of heavy industry - electrical energy, oil and gas, mining, steel and metals. Recently, attention has been paid to Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and its effect on the knowledge and related industries. Broadband, both fixed and mobile, is not an exception. Even though it has been recognized as a factor that has contributed to social and economic development, anegative effect can also be seen in particular regarding the environment. This paper provides a review of how government policy, in particular by the EU and Japan, are moving towards the transition to sustainability by utilizing ICT, as well as an evaluation of the pros and cons of broadband development. There are many complex effects on sustainability due to ICT. Since ICT can have environmental effects both as enabling energy efficiency and causing rebound effects, the policies should respond to both direct and indirect effects. To facilitate policy analysis and recommendations, this paper categorizes ICT impacts by five orders of aggregation. These five orders of aggregation may contribute both positively and negatively to sustainability, and each level will need targeted policies. The five orders of aggregation suggest a comprehensive and long term view of policy development, encompassing even policies that seek to improve the quality of decision making in our societies, by utilizing ICTs.broadband, sustainable development, green ICT.

Women IT Technicians: moving through the glass partition

A study of the lives and careers of women ICT technicians offers a different perspective to other research which focuses on traditional educational routes into computing professions. As part of the JIVE Partners project funded by the European Equal programme, we have recently completed a research study using a qualitative longitudinal approach that followed 20 women ICT technicians who were training to become Microsoft Certified Systems Engineers. We found that their routes into ICT were complex and varied and had often involved crossing boundaries between jobs which are usually gender segregated. Rather than reaching a glass ceiling that blocked their upward progression, these women found ways to make a lateral transition through a ‘glass partition’ into areas of work that have traditionally been dominated by men. Whilst women form significant numbers of those studying and working with ICTs, they are usually concentrated in administrative contexts rather than in technical occupations. Although precise figures are difficult to ascertain, there are few women working as ICT technicians or support staff and those that do work in these fields find that their career prospects are limited due to the attitudes and practices within this sector. Women in the study had a range of technical job roles some of which spanned traditional gender boundaries. The majority of the women did not choose ICT as their first profession, and for many of them there was an element of luck or chance in their entry into their current job roles. While formal careers advice had been minimal, family members (male and female) were important influencers, either as role models or as a source of information and encouragement. Prior to entering work in technical areas of ICT, these women had a range of educational backgrounds; they were often quite highly qualified but not in ICT subjects. Career decisions and future plans were strongly influenced by work life balance consideration

Definitions and Measures of ICT Impact on Growth: What is Really at Stake?

Many innovations have been introduced in national accounts in order to better gauge the information and communication technologies (ICT) diffusion impact: new ICT definitions; recognition of business and government software expenditures as fixed investment; hedonic price index. Nevertheless, there still does not exist any clear consensus about the magnitude of the ICT impact on growth. Our aim is to propose some explanations of this relative failure and also show that the debate should not be exclusively centered on quantitative methods. To this end, we take a close look at the two main questions concerning the debate surrounding the measure of the ICT impact: 1) Are there any substantial total factor productivity (TFP) gains generated by ICT diffusion or is it only a classic story of capital deepening increase ? 2) If there are indeed TFP gains, are they limited to ICT producers, as Robert J.Gordon claims, or is there any diffusion to ICT users ? The answer to the first question is really important only if it determines the length and the extent of an eventual growth cycle impulsed by ICT. The possibility that productivity gains mainly due to capital deepening generate strong and durable growth has been theoritically demonstrated by Greenwood and Jovanovic (1998), thanks to a vintage capital model. We precise the conditions under which this result can be obtained and discuss their empirical relevance. According to this approach, the true debate concerns the durability of the present technological shock, instead of its capacity to generate an autonomous technical progress. The answer to the second question is crucial because it could guide industrial policy choices. If TFP gains are limited to ICT producers, should a country always be an ICT producer, or will it anyway grow at a strong pace thanks to the fall of ICT prices ? The relevance of this economic debate is unfortunately poised by the shortcomings of available statistical tools. On one hand, the distinction between ICT users and producers is purely discretionary. On the other hand, TFP measure is completely distorted by the method used to evaluate the value of capital (cost-based prices against adjusted-quality prices). That is why we argue that the international diffusion of growth gains due to ICT essentially depends on the capacity of ICT producers' countries to stay in a rent keeping situation. The text is divided into two parts. The first one first makes a quick assessment of the adaptation of american national accounts to the " new economy ", and then underlines the limits of these changes. The second one shows that the economic debate on the importance of TFP gains acceleration and where they occur, although more complex because of these limits, can quite ignore them thanks to the implications of some endogeneous growth and international trade models.ICT; multifactor productivity; national accounts; hedonic prices

'Fitting it in' : a study exploring ICT use in a UK primary school

This paper presents a case study of a primary school which was seen as using ICT effectively to support teaching and learning. Research was carried out over two years (2003-2005) and included observation of lessons, document analysis, interviews, and questionnaires with staff at the school. It was found that 'fitting ICT in', rather than 'effective use of ICT', provided a more accurate description of the complex decisions and actions that were made regarding ICT use in the school. Using a grounded theory framework the paper describes the causal conditions; the contextual conditions; the intervening conditions and the consequences for staff and pupils associated with 'fitting ICT in'. The study argues for an approach to research which seeks to develop collaboration and understanding between researchers and practitioners

Study of TADF Emitters in OLEDs

Delayed fluorescence through thermally activated delayed fluorescence (TADF) has great potential for the creation of inexpensive and highly efficient white lighting applications, with superior colour rendering. Currently the highest external quantum efficiencies are achieved with small donor-acceptor-donor molecules utilising intramolecular charge transfer (ICT) states, and these molecules require a suitable host matrix to reside in. This thesis studies the effect of host material on the model molecule 2d, a proven efficient TADF emitter through diligent photophysical investigation. A combination of steady state and nanosecond time resolved spectroscopic studies confirm the importance of a high host triplet level to ensure that the ICT state is the lowest energy excited state to avoid high levels of quenching. More interestingly it is shown that the functional group combination of emitter and host is crucial in achieving efficient TADF in OLED devices. In particular combinations where both the host and dopant are carbazole-based should be avoided due to the formation of carbazole dimer. The effect of such dimerisation is to lower the host triplet level significantly, and further to deactivate the ability of the 2d dopant to produce the ICT state required for TADF by locking the 2d dopant in the ‘planar’ configuration. It is therefore clear that the chemical composition of the host is of critical importance for the design of future OLED devices. Experiment also suggests that there is a complex interplay between exciplex and ICT emission in 2d systems in the solid state, insofar as CT emission of any description has so far only been observed in conditions where exciplex can and does occur