Explaining Machine Learning Classifiers through Diverse Counterfactual Explanations

Post-hoc explanations of machine learning models are crucial for people to understand and act on algorithmic predictions. An intriguing class of explanations is through counterfactuals, hypothetical examples that show people how to obtain a different prediction. We posit that effective counterfactual explanations should satisfy two properties: feasibility of the counterfactual actions given user context and constraints, and diversity among the counterfactuals presented. To this end, we propose a framework for generating and evaluating a diverse set of counterfactual explanations based on determinantal point processes. To evaluate the actionability of counterfactuals, we provide metrics that enable comparison of counterfactual-based methods to other local explanation methods. We further address necessary tradeoffs and point to causal implications in optimizing for counterfactuals. Our experiments on four real-world datasets show that our framework can generate a set of counterfactuals that are diverse and well approximate local decision boundaries, outperforming prior approaches to generating diverse counterfactuals. We provide an implementation of the framework at https://github.com/microsoft/DiCE.Comment: 13 page

Active Learning based on Data Uncertainty and Model Sensitivity

Robots can rapidly acquire new skills from demonstrations. However, during generalisation of skills or transitioning across fundamentally different skills, it is unclear whether the robot has the necessary knowledge to perform the task. Failing to detect missing information often leads to abrupt movements or to collisions with the environment. Active learning can quantify the uncertainty of performing the task and, in general, locate regions of missing information. We introduce a novel algorithm for active learning and demonstrate its utility for generating smooth trajectories. Our approach is based on deep generative models and metric learning in latent spaces. It relies on the Jacobian of the likelihood to detect non-smooth transitions in the latent space, i.e., transitions that lead to abrupt changes in the movement of the robot. When non-smooth transitions are detected, our algorithm asks for an additional demonstration from that specific region. The newly acquired knowledge modifies the data manifold and allows for learning a latent representation for generating smooth movements. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on generalising elementary skills, transitioning across different skills, and implicitly avoiding collisions with the environment. For our experiments, we use a simulated pendulum where we observe its motion from images and a 7-DoF anthropomorphic arm.Comment: Published on 2018 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Syste

Hospital efficiency analysis through individual effects: A Bayesian approach

Monte Carlo Technique;Hospitals;Bayesian Statistics;Markov Chains;Panel Data