The longevity of expansions

As the current expansion nears its eighth anniversary, it becomes tempting to wonder whether the second-longest expansion in U.S. economic history is nearing an end. The only U.S expansion to last longer was a nearly nine-year expansion that occurred during the Vietnam War. Thus, the current expansion is heading into uncharted territory as the longest peacetime expansion in U.S. history. The length of the current expansion might be viewed by some analysts as worrisome.> Haimowitz examines whether there has been a systematic shift in the behavior and length of expansions in the post-World War II period. Understanding whether there has been such a shift may help policymakers, businesses, and consumers evaluate the upside and downside risks to the economic outlook. The author argues that the length of the current expansion does not signal a downside risk to the economy. When viewed in the context of all other postwar expansions, the length of the current expansion should not be seen as worrisome.Economic history

Should Transportation Output be Included as Part of the Coincident Indicators System?

With the increasing importance of the service-providing sectors, information from these sectors has become essential to the understanding of contemporary business cycles. This paper explores the usefulness of the transportation services output index (TSI) as an additional coincident indicator in determining the peaks and troughs of U.S. economy. The index represents a service sector that plays a central role in facilitating economic activities between sectors and across regions, and can be useful in monitoring the current state of the economy. We evaluate the marginal contribution of the TSI in identifying cyclical turning points in the context of four currently used NBER indicators. The TSI is found to have advantages over the composite index of coincident indicators in identifying turning points, and has been of critical importance in recent recessions.transportation services index (TSI), business cycles, coincident indicators

The lender of last resort : alternative views and historical experience

Four views on the proper role of the lender of last resort are defined. Historical evidence is given on the causes of banking panics in the U.S. and other countries and the roles lenders of last resort played in resolving them.Banks and banking - History ; Lenders of last resort ; Banks and banking, Central

Foreign experience of public administration in the context of the economic equilibrium of synthetic economic crisis

This article identify catalysts of synthetic economic crisis. These catalysts are the subject of transnational corporations, international financial, trade organizations, regional integration groupings. Generalized mechanism for the flow of synthetic economic crisis and their types. This article also proves that the response of governments to the process flow of synthetic economic crisis with the help of the classical fiscal, monetary and administrative-legislative instruments are not effective

The Lender of Last Resort: Some Historical Insights

This paper discusses the role for a lender of last resort (LLR) in preventing banking panics (section I) , then briefly considers classical and more recent concepts of the LLR (section II). Section III examines historical evidence for the U.S. and other countries on the incidence of banking panics and LLR actions, and the record of alternative LLR arrangements in the U.S., Scotland and Canada, as well as the historical record on ailouts. Section IV offers some lessons from history.

The UK recession in context — what do three centuries of data tell us?

The Quarterly Bulletin has a long tradition of using historical data to help analyse the latest developments in the UK economy. To mark the Bulletin’s 50th anniversary, this article places the recent UK recession in a long-run historical context. It draws on the extensive literature on UK economic history and analyses a wide range of macroeconomic and financial data going back to the 18th century. The UK economy has undergone major structural change over this period but such historical comparisons can provide lessons for the current economic situation.

Econometric Studies of Business Cycles in the History of Econometrics

This study examines the evolution of econometric research in business cycle analysis during the 1960-90 period. It shows how the research was dominated by an assimilation of the tradition of NBER business cycle analysis by the Haavelmo-Cowles Commission approach, catalysed by time-series statistical methods. Methodological consequences of the assimilation are critically evaluated in light of the meagre achievement of the research in predicting the current global recession.Business cycles, NBER, Forecasting

The Development and Role of the National Bureau's Business Cycle Chronologies

A working definition, first formulated in the 1920's by Mitchell and revised in the 1940's, has been in use at the National Bureau for over fifty years and is still employed to identify and date business cycles. The NBER historical chronologies for England, France, and Germany as well as the United States have been intensively in economic research and are widely accepted. The U.S. chronology, which is being updated as promptly as the data allow, also have the important practical function of aiding the analysis of current business conditions and forecasting near-term cyclical developments. This paper discusses the main aspects of the NBER concept of business cycles; the early views and developments bearing on the construction of the chronologies; the problems and procedures involved; the characteristics and dependability of the historical reference dates; and the National Bureau's work in this field since World War II. Some recent uses of the U.S. dates to measure the duration, amplitudes, and diffusion of business expansions and contractions are illustrated. Finally, we show and discuss chronologies of growth cycles,' i.e., trend-adjusted business cycles, for 13 countries in the post-World War II period.