Sensitivity of estuaries to compound flooding.

Fluvial and surge-tide extremes can occur synchronously resulting in compound flooding in estuaries, greatly intensifying the hazard. This flood risk has the potential to increase in the future as the frequency, phasing and/or intensity of these drivers change. Improved understanding of how extreme fluvial discharge and surge-tides interact will help inform future flood mitigation methodology. In this paper, therefore, we resolve for the first time intra-estuary sensitivities to fluvial and surge-tide extremes, for two contrasting UK estuaries (Humber and Dyfi). Model simulations at hyper-spatial resolution (< 50 m) using a 2D hydrodynamic model predicted compound flooding hazards based on: (1) present-day extreme events (worst on record); (2) present-day extreme events with shifted timings of the drivers to maximise flooding; and (3) modified drivers representing projected climate change. We found that in a small estuary with short-duration, high-intensity fluvial inputs (Dyfi), flood extent is sensitive to the relative timing of the fluvial and surge-tide drivers. In contrast, the relative timing of these drivers did not affect flooding in a larger estuary with a slower fluvial response to rainfall (Humber). In the Humber, extreme fluvial inputs during a compound hazard actually reduced maximum water depths in the outer estuary, compared with a surge-tide-only event. Projected future changes in these drivers by 2100 will increase compound flooding hazards: simulated sea-level rise scenarios predicted substantial and widespread flooding in both estuaries. However, projected increases in surge-tide behaved differently to sea-level rise of the same magnitude, resulting in a greater seawater influx and more flooding. Increased fluvial volumes were the weakest driver of estuarine flooding. In this paper we show how these interactions are complex and how the hydrodynamics vary considerably between different estuaries and sites within estuaries, making it difficult to generalise, use probabilistic or use 1D approaches for assessing compound flooding hazards. Hence, we contribute new knowledge and methods for catchment-to-coast impact modelling used for flood mitigation strategies

Timescales of Global Tidal Flooding

Millions of people in low-lying areas are already affected by flooding, and the number will increase substantially in the future. Tidal flooding, the form of flooding caused by a combination of high tides and sea level rise to overcome protection levels, can cause damage and inconveniences such as road closures, overwhelmed drainage systems, and infrastructure deterioration from water damage. Tidal flooding already occurs annually in cities along the U.S. east coast, most notably Miami. However, the time it will take for other regions globally to begin to experience tidal flooding has not yet been assessed. Therefore, there is a limited understanding of how and when human populations will be exposed to this type of flooding. Tide gauge data from the GESLA-2 data base are used to obtain information about the highest astronomical tide (HAT) and extreme value statistics for 571 locations globally. For a complete spatial analysis, modelled water levels from the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) are also used. Estimated protection levels are extracted from the DIVA database and translated to absolute heights based on the extreme value statistics of high water levels. This analysis is based on calculating the difference between the existing protection level and HAT, which indicates how much sea levels can rise before tidal flooding occurs, and evaluating in what decade this is expected to happen under different sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Tidal trends from the nodal and perigean are also taken account and used to modify 1000 different sea level rise scenarios to provide a more comprehensive analysis of possible tidal flooding years. Our results indicate that tidal flooding may occur within a few decades in many locations (under the assumption that no adaptation will take place), and therefore awareness should be heightened so that actions can be taken to minimize the impacts

The Effect of Harbor Developments on Future High-Tide Flooding in Miami, Florida

Little is known about the effect of tidal changes on minor flooding in most lagoonal estuaries, often due to a paucity of historical records that predate landscape changes. In this contribution, we recover and apply archival tidal range data to show that the mean tidal range in Miami, Florida, has almost doubled since 1900, from 0.32 to 0.61&nbsp;m today. A likely cause is the dredging of a ∼15&nbsp;m deep, 150&nbsp;m wide harbor entrance channel beginning in the early 20th century, which changed northern Biscayne Bay from a choked inlet system to one with a tidal range close to coastal conditions. To investigate the implications for high-tide flooding, we develop and validate a tidal-inference based methodology that leverages estimates of pre-1900 tidal range to obtain historical tidal predictions and constituents. Next, water level predictions that represent historical and modern water level variations are projected forward in time using different sea level rise scenarios. Results show that the historical increase in tidal range hastened the occurrence of present-day flooding, and that the total integrated number of days with high-tide floods in the 2020–2100 period will be approximately O(103) more under present day tides compared to pre-development conditions. These results suggest that tidal change may be a previously under-appreciated factor in the increasing prevalence of high-tide flooding in lagoonal estuaries, and our methods open the door to improving our understanding of other heavily-altered systems

Assessment of coastal flooding and associated hydrodynamic processes on the south-eastern coast of Mexico, during Central American cold surge events

Coastal flooding in the northern Yucatán Peninsula is mainly associated with storm surge events triggered by high-pressure cold front systems. This study evaluates the hydrodynamic processes of the Chelem lagoon, Mexico and the flooding threat from cold fronts for the neighbouring town of Progreso. A 30-year water-level hindcast (excluding wave set-up) was performed because of the lack of long-term tide gauge records. In order to assess the relative contribution from wave set-up and residual and astronomical tides to total flooding, the two worst storm scenarios in terms of maximum residual tide (Event A) and maximum water level (Event B) were simulated. Numerical results suggest that during Event A the wave set-up contribution reaches 0.35 at the coast and 0.17 m inside the lagoon, and these values are smaller for Event B (0.30 and 0.14 m, respectively). Results of the effect of the tidal phase on wave set-up and residual sea level show that (i) the wave set-up contribution increases during ebb tide and decreases during flood tide at the Chelem inlet, (ii) the residual tide is larger (smaller) near low (high) or receding (rising) tide, and (iii) maximum flooding occurs when the storm peak coincides with rising or high tide. The numerical results confirm the important role of wave set-up on the assessment of coastal flooding in micro-tidal coastal environments

A century of sea level data and the UK's 2013/14 storm surges: an assessment of extremes and clustering using the Newlyn tide gauge record

For the UK's longest and most complete sea level record (Newlyn), we assess extreme high waters and their temporal clustering; prompted by the 2013/2014 winter of storms and flooding. These are set into context against this almost 100-year record. We define annual periods for which storm activity and high sea levels can be compared on a year-by-year basis. Amongst the storms and high tides which affected Newlyn, the recent winter produced the largest recorded high water level (3 February 2014) and five other high water events above a 1 in 1-year return period. The large magnitude of tide and mean sea level, and the close inter-event spacings (of large return period high waters), suggests that the 2013/2014 extreme high water level "season" can be considered the most extreme on record. However, storm and sea level events may be classified in different ways. For example, in the context of sea level rise (which we calculate linearly as 1.81 ± 0.1 mm yr?1 from records between 1915 to 2014), a lower probability combination of surge and tide occurred on 29 January 1948, whilst the 1995/1996 storm surge season saw the most high waters of ? the 1 in 1-year return period. We provide a basic categorisation of the four types of extreme high water level cluster, ranging from consecutive tidal cycles to multiple years. The assessment is extended to other UK sites (with shorter sea level records and different tide-surge characteristics), which suggests 2013/2014 was particularly unusual. Further work will assess clustering mechanisms and flood system "memory"

Chesapeake Bay Plume Dynamics from LANDSAT

Examination of 81 dates of Landsat images with enhancement and density slicing has shown that the Chesapeake Bay plume usually frequents the Virginia coast south of the Bay mouth. Southwestern (compared to northern) winds spread the plume easterly over a large area. Ebb tide images (compared to flood tide images) show a more dispersed plume. Flooding waters produce high turbidity levels over the shallow northern portion of the Bay mouth.https://scholarworks.wm.edu/vimsbooks/1129/thumbnail.jp

Chronic flooding events due to sea-level rise in French Guiana

As sea levels are rising, the number of chronic flooding events at high tide is increasing across the world coastlines. Yet, many events reported so far either lack observational evidence of flooding, or relate to coastal areas where ground subsidence or oceanic processes often enhance climate change-induced sea-level rise (SLR). Here we present observational and modelling evidence of high-tide flooding events that are unlikely to occur without SLR in French Guiana, where sea-level rise rates are close to the global average and where there is no significant ground subsidence. In particular, on 16 October 2020, a well-documented flooding event happened in Cayenne under calm weather conditions. Our probabilistic assessment of daily maximum water levels superimposed on SLR shows that this event can be modelled and is a consequence of SLR. As sea levels will continue to rise, we show that the number, severity and extent of such high-tide flooding events will increase across several urban areas of French Guiana, with an evolution depending on the topography. As concerns are growing regarding the economic impacts and adaptation challenges of high-tide chronic events across the world, our study provides new evidence that this early impact of SLR is emerging now

A user-friendly database of coastal flooding in the United Kingdom from 1915–2014

Coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels can be devastating, with long-lasting and diverse consequences. Historically, the UK has suffered major flooding events, and at present 2.5 million properties and £150 billion of assets are potentially exposed to coastal flooding. However, no formal system is in place to catalogue which storms and high sea level events progress to coastal flooding. Furthermore, information on the extent of flooding and associated damages is not systematically documented nationwide. Here we present a database and online tool called ‘SurgeWatch’, which provides a systematic UK-wide record of high sea level and coastal flood events over the last 100 years (1915-2014). Using records from the National Tide Gauge Network, with a dataset of exceedance probabilities and meteorological fields, SurgeWatch captures information of 96 storms during this period, the highest sea levels they produced, and the occurrence and severity of coastal flooding. The data are presented to be easily assessable and understandable to a range of users including, scientists, coastal engineers, managers and planners and concerned citizens

Using remarkability to define coastal flooding thresholds.

Coastal flooding is increasingly common in many areas. However, the degree of inundation and associated disruption depend on local topography as well as the distribution of people, infrastructure and economic activity along the coast. Local measures of flooding that are comparable over large areas are difficult to obtain. Here we use the remarkability of flood events, measured by flood-related posts on social media, to estimate county-specific flood thresholds for shoreline counties along the east coast of the United States. While thresholds in most counties are statistically-indistinguishable from minor flood thresholds of nearby tide gauges, we find evidence that several areas experience noticeable flooding at tide heights lower than existing flood thresholds. These 22 counties include several major cities such as Miami, New York, and Boston, with a total population over 13 million. Our analysis implies that large populations might currently be exposed to nuisance flooding not identified via standard measures

A Preliminary Assessment of Tidal Flooding along the New Hampshire Coast: Past, Present and Future

This report presents the results of a preliminary study that examines several critical coastal issues for New Hampshire including sea level fluctuations (past, present and future), shoreline migrations, and tidal flooding. Included are: 1) an analysis of sea level changes over the Holocene and resulting shoreline migrations, 2) an assessment of low-lying areas with elevations below selected tidal flooding datums in coastal areas, and 3) an assessment of increases in low-lying areas that are potentially at risk to tidal flooding over the next century due to sea level rise