An overview of the goodness-of-fit test problem for copulas

We review the main "omnibus procedures" for goodness-of-fit testing for copulas: tests based on the empirical copula process, on probability integral transformations, on Kendall's dependence function, etc, and some corresponding reductions of dimension techniques. The problems of finding asymptotic distribution-free test statistics and the calculation of reliable p-values are discussed. Some particular cases, like convenient tests for time-dependent copulas, for Archimedean or extreme-value copulas, etc, are dealt with. Finally, the practical performances of the proposed approaches are briefly summarized

The nested structure of urban business clusters

Although the cluster theory literature is bountiful in economics and regional science, there is still a lack of understanding of how the geographical scales of analysis (neighbourhood, city, region) relate to one another and impact the observed phenomenon, and to which extent the clusters are industrially bound or geographically consistent. In this paper, we cluster spatial economic activities through a multi-scalar approach following percolation theory. We consider both the industrial similarity and the geographical proximity of firms, through their joint probability function which is constructed as a copula. This gives rise to an emergent nested hierarchy of geoindustrial clusters, which enables us to analyse the relationships between the different scales, and specific industrial sectors. Using longitudinal business microdata from the Office for National Statistics, we look at the evolution of clusters which spans from very local groups of businesses to the metropolitan level, in 2007 and in 2014, so that the changes stemming from the financial crisis can be observed.Comment: 20 pages, 10 figure

Stochastic cosmic ray sources and the TeV break in the all-electron spectrum

Despite significant progress over more than 100 years, no accelerator has been unambiguously identified as the source of the locally measured flux of cosmic rays. High-energy electrons and positrons are of particular importance in the search for nearby sources as radiative energy losses constrain their propagation to distances of about 1 kpc around 1 TeV. At the highest energies, the spectrum is therefore dominated and shaped by only a few sources whose properties can be inferred from the fine structure of the spectrum at energies currently accessed by experiments like AMS-02, CALET, DAMPE, Fermi-LAT, H.E.S.S. and ISS-CREAM. We present a stochastic model of the Galactic all-electron flux and evaluate its compatibility with the measurement recently presented by the H.E.S.S. collaboration. To this end, we have MC generated a large sample of the all-electron flux from an ensemble of random distributions of sources. We confirm the non-Gaussian nature of the probability density of fluxes at individual energies previously reported in analytical computations. For the first time, we also consider the correlations between the fluxes at different energies, treating the binned spectrum as a random vector and parametrising its joint distribution with the help of a pair-copula construction. We show that the spectral break observed in the all-electron spectrum by H.E.S.S. and DAMPE is statistically compatible with a distribution of astrophysical sources like supernova remnants or pulsars, but requires a rate smaller than the canonical supernova rate. This important result provides an astrophysical interpretation of the spectrum at TeV energies and allows differentiating astrophysical source models from exotic explanations, like dark matter annihilation. We also critically assess the reliability of using catalogues of known sources to model the electron-positron flux.Comment: 30 pages, 12 figures; extended discussion; accepted for publication in JCA