16,018 research outputs found
Causal Inference in Disease Spread across a Heterogeneous Social System
Diffusion processes are governed by external triggers and internal dynamics
in complex systems. Timely and cost-effective control of infectious disease
spread critically relies on uncovering the underlying diffusion mechanisms,
which is challenging due to invisible causality between events and their
time-evolving intensity. We infer causal relationships between infections and
quantify the reflexivity of a meta-population, the level of feedback on event
occurrences by its internal dynamics (likelihood of a regional outbreak
triggered by previous cases). These are enabled by our new proposed model, the
Latent Influence Point Process (LIPP) which models disease spread by
incorporating macro-level internal dynamics of meta-populations based on human
mobility. We analyse 15-year dengue cases in Queensland, Australia. From our
causal inference, outbreaks are more likely driven by statewide global
diffusion over time, leading to complex behavior of disease spread. In terms of
reflexivity, precursory growth and symmetric decline in populous regions is
attributed to slow but persistent feedback on preceding outbreaks via
inter-group dynamics, while abrupt growth but sharp decline in peripheral areas
is led by rapid but inconstant feedback via intra-group dynamics. Our proposed
model reveals probabilistic causal relationships between discrete events based
on intra- and inter-group dynamics and also covers direct and indirect
diffusion processes (contact-based and vector-borne disease transmissions).Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1711.0635
Spatial interactions in agent-based modeling
Agent Based Modeling (ABM) has become a widespread approach to model complex
interactions. In this chapter after briefly summarizing some features of ABM
the different approaches in modeling spatial interactions are discussed.
It is stressed that agents can interact either indirectly through a shared
environment and/or directly with each other. In such an approach, higher-order
variables such as commodity prices, population dynamics or even institutions,
are not exogenously specified but instead are seen as the results of
interactions. It is highlighted in the chapter that the understanding of
patterns emerging from such spatial interaction between agents is a key problem
as much as their description through analytical or simulation means.
The chapter reviews different approaches for modeling agents' behavior,
taking into account either explicit spatial (lattice based) structures or
networks. Some emphasis is placed on recent ABM as applied to the description
of the dynamics of the geographical distribution of economic activities, - out
of equilibrium. The Eurace@Unibi Model, an agent-based macroeconomic model with
spatial structure, is used to illustrate the potential of such an approach for
spatial policy analysis.Comment: 26 pages, 5 figures, 105 references; a chapter prepared for the book
"Complexity and Geographical Economics - Topics and Tools", P. Commendatore,
S.S. Kayam and I. Kubin, Eds. (Springer, in press, 2014
How can innovation economics benefit from complex network analysis?
There is a deficit in economics of theories and empirical data on complex networks, though mathematicians, physicists, biologists, computer scientists, and sociologists are actively engaged in their study. This paper offers a focused review of prominent concepts in contemporary thinking in network research that may motivate further theoretical research and stimulate interest of economists. Possible avenues for modelling innovation, considered the driving force behind economic change, have been explored. A transition is needed from the analysis in economics of the transaction to the explicit examination of market structure and how it processes, or is processed by, innovation.Network; statistics; economy; innovation; modelling
From Network Structure to Dynamics and Back Again: Relating dynamical stability and connection topology in biological complex systems
The recent discovery of universal principles underlying many complex networks
occurring across a wide range of length scales in the biological world has
spurred physicists in trying to understand such features using techniques from
statistical physics and non-linear dynamics. In this paper, we look at a few
examples of biological networks to see how similar questions can come up in
very different contexts. We review some of our recent work that looks at how
network structure (e.g., its connection topology) can dictate the nature of its
dynamics, and conversely, how dynamical considerations constrain the network
structure. We also see how networks occurring in nature can evolve to modular
configurations as a result of simultaneously trying to satisfy multiple
structural and dynamical constraints. The resulting optimal networks possess
hubs and have heterogeneous degree distribution similar to those seen in
biological systems.Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, to appear in Proceedings of "Dynamics On and Of
Complex Networks", ECSS'07 Satellite Workshop, Dresden, Oct 1-5, 200
The Spontaneous Emergence of Social Influence in Online Systems
Social influence drives both offline and online human behaviour. It pervades
cultural markets, and manifests itself in the adoption of scientific and
technical innovations as well as the spread of social practices. Prior
empirical work on the diffusion of innovations in spatial regions or social
networks has largely focused on the spread of one particular technology among a
subset of all potential adopters. It has also been difficult to determine
whether the observed collective behaviour is driven by natural influence
processes, or whether it follows external signals such as media or marketing
campaigns. Here, we choose an online context that allows us to study social
influence processes by tracking the popularity of a complete set of
applications installed by the user population of a social networking site, thus
capturing the behaviour of all individuals who can influence each other in this
context. By extending standard fluctuation scaling methods, we analyse the
collective behaviour induced by 100 million application installations, and show
that two distinct regimes of behaviour emerge in the system. Once applications
cross a particular threshold of popularity, social influence processes induce
highly correlated adoption behaviour among the users, which propels some of the
applications to extraordinary levels of popularity. Below this threshold, the
collective effect of social influence appears to vanish almost entirely in a
manner that has not been observed in the offline world. Our results demonstrate
that even when external signals are absent, social influence can spontaneously
assume an on-off nature in a digital environment. It remains to be seen whether
a similar outcome could be observed in the offline world if equivalent
experimental conditions could be replicated
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