Optimization-based Calibration of Simulation Input Models

Studies on simulation input uncertainty often built on the availability of input data. In this paper, we investigate an inverse problem where, given only the availability of output data, we nonparametrically calibrate the input models and other related performance measures of interest. We propose an optimization-based framework to compute statistically valid bounds on input quantities. The framework utilizes constraints that connect the statistical information of the real-world outputs with the input-output relation via a simulable map. We analyze the statistical guarantees of this approach from the view of data-driven robust optimization, and show how the guarantees relate to the function complexity of the constraints arising in our framework. We investigate an iterative procedure based on a stochastic quadratic penalty method to approximately solve the resulting optimization. We conduct numerical experiments to demonstrate our performance in bounding the input models and related quantities

Simulation optimization: A review of algorithms and applications

Simulation Optimization (SO) refers to the optimization of an objective function subject to constraints, both of which can be evaluated through a stochastic simulation. To address specific features of a particular simulation---discrete or continuous decisions, expensive or cheap simulations, single or multiple outputs, homogeneous or heterogeneous noise---various algorithms have been proposed in the literature. As one can imagine, there exist several competing algorithms for each of these classes of problems. This document emphasizes the difficulties in simulation optimization as compared to mathematical programming, makes reference to state-of-the-art algorithms in the field, examines and contrasts the different approaches used, reviews some of the diverse applications that have been tackled by these methods, and speculates on future directions in the field

Robust Analysis in Stochastic Simulation: Computation and Performance Guarantees

Any performance analysis based on stochastic simulation is subject to the errors inherent in misspecifying the modeling assumptions, particularly the input distributions. In situations with little support from data, we investigate the use of worst-case analysis to analyze these errors, by representing the partial, nonparametric knowledge of the input models via optimization constraints. We study the performance and robustness guarantees of this approach. We design and analyze a numerical scheme for solving a general class of simulation objectives and uncertainty specifications. The key steps involve a randomized discretization of the probability spaces, a simulable unbiased gradient estimator using a nonparametric analog of the likelihood ratio method, and a Frank-Wolfe (FW) variant of the stochastic approximation (SA) method (which we call FWSA) run on the space of input probability distributions. A convergence analysis for FWSA on non-convex problems is provided. We test the performance of our approach via several numerical examples

Granger Causality Networks for Categorical Time Series

We present a new framework for learning Granger causality networks for multivariate categorical time series, based on the mixture transition distribution (MTD) model. Traditionally, MTD is plagued by a nonconvex objective, non-identifiability, and presence of many local optima. To circumvent these problems, we recast inference in the MTD as a convex problem. The new formulation facilitates the application of MTD to high-dimensional multivariate time series. As a baseline, we also formulate a multi-output logistic autoregressive model (mLTD), which while a straightforward extension of autoregressive Bernoulli generalized linear models, has not been previously applied to the analysis of multivariate categorial time series. We develop novel identifiability conditions of the MTD model and compare them to those for mLTD. We further devise novel and efficient optimization algorithm for the MTD based on the new convex formulation, and compare the MTD and mLTD in both simulated and real data experiments. Our approach simultaneously provides a comparison of methods for network inference in categorical time series and opens the door to modern, regularized inference with the MTD model

Derivative-free optimization methods

In many optimization problems arising from scientific, engineering and artificial intelligence applications, objective and constraint functions are available only as the output of a black-box or simulation oracle that does not provide derivative information. Such settings necessitate the use of methods for derivative-free, or zeroth-order, optimization. We provide a review and perspectives on developments in these methods, with an emphasis on highlighting recent developments and on unifying treatment of such problems in the non-linear optimization and machine learning literature. We categorize methods based on assumed properties of the black-box functions, as well as features of the methods. We first overview the primary setting of deterministic methods applied to unconstrained, non-convex optimization problems where the objective function is defined by a deterministic black-box oracle. We then discuss developments in randomized methods, methods that assume some additional structure about the objective (including convexity, separability and general non-smooth compositions), methods for problems where the output of the black-box oracle is stochastic, and methods for handling different types of constraints

Improvement of PSO algorithm by memory based gradient search - application in inventory management

Advanced inventory management in complex supply chains requires effective and robust nonlinear optimization due to the stochastic nature of supply and demand variations. Application of estimated gradients can boost up the convergence of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm but classical gradient calculation cannot be applied to stochastic and uncertain systems. In these situations Monte-Carlo (MC) simulation can be applied to determine the gradient. We developed a memory based algorithm where instead of generating and evaluating new simulated samples the stored and shared former function evaluations of the particles are sampled to estimate the gradients by local weighted least squares regression. The performance of the resulted regional gradient-based PSO is verified by several benchmark problems and in a complex application example where optimal reorder points of a supply chain are determined.Comment: book chapter, 20 pages, 7 figures, 2 table

Simultaneous Perturbation Methods for Adaptive Labor Staffing in Service Systems

Service systems are labor intensive due to the large variation in the tasks required to address service requests from multiple customers. Aligning the staffing levels to the forecasted workloads adaptively in such systems is nontrivial because of a large number of parameters and operational variations leading to a huge search space. A challenging problem here is to optimize the staffing while maintaining the system in steady-state and compliant to aggregate service level agreement (SLA) constraints. Further, because these parameters change on a weekly basis, the optimization should not take longer than a few hours. We formulate this problem as a constrained Markov cost process parameterized by the (discrete) staffing levels. We propose novel simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) based SASOC (Staff Allocation using Stochastic Optimization with Constraints) algorithms for solving the above problem. The algorithms include both first order as well as second order methods and incorporate SPSA based gradient estimates in the primal, with dual ascent for the Lagrange multipliers. Both the algorithms that we propose are online, incremental and easy to implement. Further, they involve a certain generalized smooth projection operator, which is essential to project the continuous-valued worker parameter tuned by SASOC algorithms onto the discrete set. We validated our algorithms on five real-life service systems and compared them with a state-of-the-art optimization tool-kit OptQuest. Being 25 times faster than OptQuest, our algorithms are particularly suitable for adaptive labor staffing. Also, we observe that our algorithms guarantee convergence and find better solutions than OptQuest in many cases

Constrained Bayesian Optimization with Noisy Experiments

Randomized experiments are the gold standard for evaluating the effects of changes to real-world systems. Data in these tests may be difficult to collect and outcomes may have high variance, resulting in potentially large measurement error. Bayesian optimization is a promising technique for efficiently optimizing multiple continuous parameters, but existing approaches degrade in performance when the noise level is high, limiting its applicability to many randomized experiments. We derive an expression for expected improvement under greedy batch optimization with noisy observations and noisy constraints, and develop a quasi-Monte Carlo approximation that allows it to be efficiently optimized. Simulations with synthetic functions show that optimization performance on noisy, constrained problems outperforms existing methods. We further demonstrate the effectiveness of the method with two real-world experiments conducted at Facebook: optimizing a ranking system, and optimizing server compiler flags

Using models to improve optimizers for variational quantum algorithms

Variational quantum algorithms are a leading candidate for early applications on noisy intermediate-scale quantum computers. These algorithms depend on a classical optimization outer-loop that minimizes some function of a parameterized quantum circuit. In practice, finite sampling error and gate errors make this a stochastic optimization with unique challenges that must be addressed at the level of the optimizer. The sharp trade-off between precision and sampling time in conjunction with experimental constraints necessitates the development of new optimization strategies to minimize overall wall clock time in this setting. In this work, we introduce two optimization methods and numerically compare their performance with common methods in use today. The methods are surrogate model-based algorithms designed to improve reuse of collected data. They do so by utilizing a least-squares quadratic fit of sampled function values within a moving trusted region to estimate the gradient or a policy gradient. To make fair comparisons between optimization methods, we develop experimentally relevant cost models designed to balance efficiency in testing and accuracy with respect to cloud quantum computing systems. The results here underscore the need to both use relevant cost models and optimize hyperparameters of existing optimization methods for competitive performance. The methods introduced here have several practical advantages in realistic experimental settings, and we have used one of them successfully in a separately published experiment on Google's Sycamore device.Comment: 22 pages, 10 figures. Added Model Policy Gradient optimizer and changed titl

Efficient Approximation of Channel Capacities

We propose an iterative method for approximately computing the capacity of discrete memoryless channels, possibly under additional constraints on the input distribution. Based on duality of convex programming, we derive explicit upper and lower bounds for the capacity. The presented method requires $O(M^2 N \sqrt{\log N}/\varepsilon)$ to provide an estimate of the capacity to within $\varepsilon$, where $N$ and $M$ denote the input and output alphabet size; a single iteration has a complexity $O(M N)$. We also show how to approximately compute the capacity of memoryless channels having a bounded continuous input alphabet and a countable output alphabet under some mild assumptions on the decay rate of the channel's tail. It is shown that discrete-time Poisson channels fall into this problem class. As an example, we compute sharp upper and lower bounds for the capacity of a discrete-time Poisson channel with a peak-power input constraint.Comment: 32 pages, 3 figures, revised versio