Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling for Tailoring Metric Thresholds

Software is highly contextual. While there are cross-cutting `global' lessons, individual software projects exhibit many `local' properties. This data heterogeneity makes drawing local conclusions from global data dangerous. A key research challenge is to construct locally accurate prediction models that are informed by global characteristics and data volumes. Previous work has tackled this problem using clustering and transfer learning approaches, which identify locally similar characteristics. This paper applies a simpler approach known as Bayesian hierarchical modeling. We show that hierarchical modeling supports cross-project comparisons, while preserving local context. To demonstrate the approach, we conduct a conceptual replication of an existing study on setting software metrics thresholds. Our emerging results show our hierarchical model reduces model prediction error compared to a global approach by up to 50%.Comment: Short paper, published at MSR '18: 15th International Conference on Mining Software Repositories May 28--29, 2018, Gothenburg, Swede

Identifying Unmaintained Projects in GitHub

Background: Open source software has an increasing importance in modern software development. However, there is also a growing concern on the sustainability of such projects, which are usually managed by a small number of developers, frequently working as volunteers. Aims: In this paper, we propose an approach to identify GitHub projects that are not actively maintained. Our goal is to alert users about the risks of using these projects and possibly motivate other developers to assume the maintenance of the projects. Method: We train machine learning models to identify unmaintained or sparsely maintained projects, based on a set of features about project activity (commits, forks, issues, etc). We empirically validate the model with the best performance with the principal developers of 129 GitHub projects. Results: The proposed machine learning approach has a precision of 80%, based on the feedback of real open source developers; and a recall of 96%. We also show that our approach can be used to assess the risks of projects becoming unmaintained. Conclusions: The model proposed in this paper can be used by open source users and developers to identify GitHub projects that are not actively maintained anymore.Comment: Accepted at 12th International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering and Measurement (ESEM), 10 pages, 201

A Second Replicated Quantitative Analysis of Fault Distributions in Complex Software Systems

Background. Software engineering is in search for general principles that apply across contexts, for example to help guide software quality assurance. Fenton and Ohlsson presented such observations on fault distributions, which have been replicated once. Objectives.We intend to replicate their study a second time in a new environment. Method.We conducted a close replication, collecting defect data from five consecutive releases of a large software system in the telecommunications domain, and conducted the same analysis as in the original study. Results. The replication confirms results on un-evenly distributed faults over modules, and that fault proneness distribution persist over test phases. Size measures are not useful as predictors of fault proneness, while fault densities are of the same order of magnitude across releases and contexts. Conclusions. This replication confirms that the un-even distribution of defects motivates un-even distribution of quality assurance efforts, although predictors for such distribution of efforts are not sufficiently precise