Optimal Uncertainty Quantification

We propose a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which the UQ objectives and the assumptions/information set are brought to the forefront. This framework, which we call \emph{Optimal Uncertainty Quantification} (OUQ), is based on the observation that, given a set of assumptions and information about the problem, there exist optimal bounds on uncertainties: these are obtained as values of well-defined optimization problems corresponding to extremizing probabilities of failure, or of deviations, subject to the constraints imposed by the scenarios compatible with the assumptions and information. In particular, this framework does not implicitly impose inappropriate assumptions, nor does it repudiate relevant information. Although OUQ optimization problems are extremely large, we show that under general conditions they have finite-dimensional reductions. As an application, we develop \emph{Optimal Concentration Inequalities} (OCI) of Hoeffding and McDiarmid type. Surprisingly, these results show that uncertainties in input parameters, which propagate to output uncertainties in the classical sensitivity analysis paradigm, may fail to do so if the transfer functions (or probability distributions) are imperfectly known. We show how, for hierarchical structures, this phenomenon may lead to the non-propagation of uncertainties or information across scales. In addition, a general algorithmic framework is developed for OUQ and is tested on the Caltech surrogate model for hypervelocity impact and on the seismic safety assessment of truss structures, suggesting the feasibility of the framework for important complex systems. The introduction of this paper provides both an overview of the paper and a self-contained mini-tutorial about basic concepts and issues of UQ.Comment: 90 pages. Accepted for publication in SIAM Review (Expository Research Papers). See SIAM Review for higher quality figure

Population extremal optimisation for discrete multi-objective optimisation problems

The power to solve intractable optimisation problems is often found through population based evolutionary methods. These include, but are not limited to, genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimisation, differential evolution and ant colony optimisation. While showing much promise as an effective optimiser, extremal optimisation uses only a single solution in its canonical form – and there are no standard population mechanics. In this paper, two population models for extremal optimisation are proposed and applied to a multi-objective version of the generalised assignment problem. These models use novel intervention/interaction strategies as well as collective memory in order to allow individual population members to work together. Additionally, a general non-dominated local search algorithm is developed and tested. Overall, the results show that improved attainment surfaces can be produced using population based interactions over not using them. The new EO approach is also shown to be highly competitive with an implementation of NSGA-II.No Full Tex