Military expenditure - threats, aid, and arms races

Using global data for the period 1960-99, the authors estimate neighborhood arms races. They find that the level of military expenditure is strongly influenced by the expenditure of neighbors. The authors estimate an"arms race multiplier,"finding that an initial exogenous increase in military expenditure by one country is more than doubled in both the originating country and its neighbor. An implication is that military expenditure is, to an extent, a"regional public bad."Potentially, there is an offsetting public good effect if rebellions are deterred by military expenditure. However, instrumenting for military expenditure, the authors find no deterrence effect of military spending on the risk of internal conflict. So there appears to be no regional public good effect offsetting the public bad arising from a neighborhood arms race.Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Peace&Peacekeeping,Business Environment,Legal Products,Economic Theory&Research,Peace&Peacekeeping,Legal Products,National Governance,Social Conflict and Violence,Business Environment

Trade and development in the 1980s

In international circles, the concern of the day is the state of the world economy. There is a general appreciation of the severity of the problem, but no widespread agreement about either diagnosis or solutions. We shall focus here on a particular set of topics that have emerged as major issues during the last decade, and that also seem central to an understanding of the present economic situation. A characteristic of these topics is that they link international and domestic policy areas in so integral a way that neither can be analyzed in isolation from the other. They are: First, the recurrence of recession and unemployment in industrial countries, and the emergence of protectionism. Second, the changing international environment facing the developing countries and, in particular, the issues of export-led strategies and North-South trade in armaments. Third, the pricing of exhaustible resources, including oil, as a major issue in North-South trade, and in the international financial system. Fourth, the role of declining transfers of wealth from industrial to developing countries, and the perceived limitations of the existing international financial institutions.world economy; domestic policy; recession; unemployment; protectionism; armaments; north-south trade; international trade; exhaustible resources; finite resources; natural resources; wealth transfer; industrialization; development; financial institutions; IMF; OECD; GNP; UN; energy; environment; trade

THE MILITARY EXPENDITURE-EXTERNAL DEBT NEXUS: NEW EVIDENCE FROM A PANEL OF MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRIES

This paper examines the impact of military expenditure and income on external debt for a panel of six Middle Eastern countries; namely, Oman, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, Iran, and Jordan, over the period 1988 to 2002. Using Pedroni's (2004) test for panel cointegration, we find that there is a long-run relationship between external debt, military expenditure and income. The estimated long-run elasticities suggest that an increase in military expenditure contributes to a rise in external debt, while an increase in income helps the Middle Eastern countries to pay off their external debt.

International Relative Prices and Civil Wars in Sub-Saharan Africa. Theory and Evidence over the period (1995-2006)

This paper presents first a theoretical model of conflict between two agents characterized by a two-sector economy. In a contested sector two agents struggle to appropriate the maximum possible fraction of a contestable output. In an uncontested sector, they hold secure property rights over the production of some goods. Agents split their resource endowment between ‘butter’, ‘guns’ and ‘ice-cream’. Eventually, tradable goods made of butter and ice-cream produced by conflicting parties are both sold to the Rest of the world. Therefore, the opportunity cost of conflict depends also on relative profitability of contested and uncontested production. In particular, productivity of uncontested production and profitability of contested sectors are countervailing forces. The empirical section focused on a panel of Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1995-2006. Results are not fully conclusive. However, there is robust evidence that prices of manufactures (interpreted as the uncontested ice-cream) are negatively associated with the likelihood of a civil war. Eventually, international price of manufactures is also associated with a higher GDP per capita growth rate. The concluding remark seems to be that an increase in world prices of manufactures would make civil wars less likely.Theoretical model of conflict, Civil war, resource curse, butter guns and ice-cream, structure of the economy, commodity prices, MUV, panel probit analysis

Conflict, food insecurity, and globalization:

"We explore how globalization, broadly conceived to include international humanrights norms, humanitarianism, and alternative trade, might influence peaceful and foodsecure outlooks and outcomes. The paper draws on our previous work on conflict as a cause and effect of hunger and also looks at agricultural exports as war commodities. We review studies on the relationships between (1) conflict and food insecurity, (2) conflict and globalization, and (3) globalization and food insecurity. Next, we analyze countrylevel, historical contexts where export crops, such as coffee and cotton, have been implicated in triggering and perpetuating conflict. These cases suggest that it is not export cropping per se, but production and trade structures and food and financial policy contexts that determine peaceful or belligerent outcomes. Export cropping appears to contribute to conflict when fluctuating prices destabilize household and national incomes and when revenues fund hostilities. Also, in these scenarios, governments have not taken steps to progressively realize the right to adequate food or to reduce hunger and poverty. We conclude by exploring implications for agricultural development, trade, and human rights policies." Authors' AbstractHunger, Conflict, war, Globalization, Crops, exports, coffee, Cotton, Human rights, Right to food, Fair trade,

Economic Integration, International Conflict and Political Unions

This article studies the interactions among economic integration, international conflict, and the formation and breakup of political unions. Economic integration reduces the importance of political size, while international conflict increases it. When international conflict reduces economic integration between politically separate units, multiple equilibria are possible. In one equilibrium, political units are small and more open and engage less in conflict, therefore making political size less important. In another equilibrium, the world is formed by larger units, with more conflict and less economic integration

The Vicious Cycle of the Foreign Military Debt

This paper aims at estimating first the effects of defense spending on the main determinants of growth, and second the extent to and the channels through which the military debt of Greece influences the overall debt burden of the country, and consequently the critical determinants of economic growth and development. Increased imports of sophisticated weapons and military equipment can be financed at the cost of investment (guns v. ploughshares), or/and at the cost of human capital formation (guns v. butter and chalk), or at the cost of increasing the foreign debt of the country. It is this last case which is investigated in this paper. Our empirical results indicate that whatever the necessity and the benefits of the security aspect of defense, its economic costs are quite substantial. The military as a claimant of resources has a negative and non trivial effect on physical capital accumulation, and human capital formation. Moreover, financing increased military imports through borrowing from abroad has a negative and significant effect on the determinants of growth and development.Key Words: Defense Burden, Foreign Military Debt, Growth Rate, Investment, Education.

War and Natural Resource Exploitation

Although the relationship between natural resources and civil war has received much attention, little is known about the underlying mechanisms. Controversies and contradictions in the stylized facts persist because resource extraction is treated as exogenous while in reality fighting affects extraction. We study endogenous fighting, armament, and extraction method, speed and investment. Rapacious resource exploitation has economic costs, but can nevertheless be preferred to balanced depletion due to lowered incentives for future rebel attacks. With private exploitation, rebels fight more than the government if they can renege on the contract with the mining company, and hence government turnover is larger in this case. Incentive-compatible license fees paid by private companies and mining investment are lower in unstable countries, and increase with the quality of the government army and office rents. This implies that privatised resource exploitation is more attractive for governments who have incentives to fight hard, i.e., in the presence of large office rents and a strong army. With endogenous weapon investments, the government invests more under balanced than under rapacious or private extraction. If the government can commit before mining licenses are auctioned, it will invest more in weapons under private extraction than under balanced and rapacious nationalized extraction.conflict, natural resources, private resource exploitation, mining investment, license fee

Democracies, politics and arms supply: A bilateral trade equation

Throughout the XXth century arms have not only been tradable goods, but also foreign policy instruments. This paper focuses on countries supplying major conventional weapons (MCW), and investigates whether changes in political conditions impact the quantity of MCW supplied to third countries. In particular, I concentrate on democratic exporters and estimate a gravity-type panel TOBIT for the years 1975-2004. Results suggest that the exporter's chief executive being right-wing has a positive and significant impact on MCW exports. This may reect a general right-wing tendency to support national industry and deregulate heavy industry exports. I also find that higher political competition is associated with higher MCW exports, and that executives serving the last year of their current term tend to increase MCW exports if they cannot be re-elected, and to decrease MCW exports if they run for re-election.arms trade ; politics ; gravity-type equation

Impact of trade liberalization on agriculture in the near East and North Africa:

Trade liberalization Africa, Agricultural trade., Economic development Africa, Sub-Saharan., Sustainable agriculture Africa, Sub-Saharan, Agricultural marketing, Agricultural policy Africa, Sub-Saharan, Agriculture Economic aspects Africa,