Gaussian approximations for transition paths in Brownian dynamics

This paper is concerned with transition paths within the framework of the overdamped Langevin dynamics model of chemical reactions. We aim to give an efficient description of typical transition paths in the small temperature regime. We adopt a variational point of view and seek the best Gaussian approximation, with respect to Kullback-Leibler divergence, of the non-Gaussian distribution of the diffusion process. We interpret the mean of this Gaussian approximation as the "most likely path" and the covariance operator as a means to capture the typical fluctuations around this most likely path. We give an explicit expression for the Kullback-Leibler divergence in terms of the mean and the covariance operator for a natural class of Gaussian approximations and show the existence of minimisers for the variational problem. Then the low temperature limit is studied via $\Gamma$-convergence of the associated variational problem. The limiting functional consists of two parts: The first part only depends on the mean and coincides with the $\Gamma$-limit of the Freidlin-Wentzell rate functional. The second part depends on both, the mean and the covariance operator and is minimized if the dynamics are given by a time-inhomogenous Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process found by linearization of the Langevin dynamics around the Freidlin-Wentzell minimizer.Comment: 42 page

An Exact Auxiliary Variable Gibbs Sampler for a Class of Diffusions

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) or diffusions are continuous-valued continuous-time stochastic processes widely used in the applied and mathematical sciences. Simulating paths from these processes is usually an intractable problem, and typically involves time-discretization approximations. We propose an exact Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm that involves no such time-discretization error. Our sampler is applicable to the problem of prior simulation from an SDE, posterior simulation conditioned on noisy observations, as well as parameter inference given noisy observations. Our work recasts an existing rejection sampling algorithm for a class of diffusions as a latent variable model, and then derives an auxiliary variable Gibbs sampling algorithm that targets the associated joint distribution. At a high level, the resulting algorithm involves two steps: simulating a random grid of times from an inhomogeneous Poisson process, and updating the SDE trajectory conditioned on this grid. Our work allows the vast literature of Monte Carlo sampling algorithms from the Gaussian process literature to be brought to bear to applications involving diffusions. We study our method on synthetic and real datasets, where we demonstrate superior performance over competing methods.Comment: 37 pages, 13 figure

Maximum Likelihood and Gaussian Estimation of Continuous Time Models in Finance

This paper overviews maximum likelihood and Gaussian methods of estimating continuous time models used in finance. Since the exact likelihood can be constructed only in special cases, much attention has been devoted to the development of methods designed to approximate the likelihood. These approaches range from crude Euler-type approximations and higher order stochastic Taylor series expansions to more complex polynomial-based expansions and infill approximations to the likelihood based on a continuous time data record. The methods are discussed, their properties are outlined and their relative finite sample performance compared in a simulation experiment with the nonlinear CIR diffusion model, which is popular in empirical finance. Bias correction methods are also considered and particular attention is given to jackknife and indirect inference estimators. The latter retains the good asymptotic properties of ML estimation while removing finite sample bias. This method demonstrates superior performance in finite samples.Maximum likelihood, Transition density, Discrete sampling, Continuous record, Realized volatility, Bias reduction, Jackknife, Indirect inference

Chernoff's Theorem and Discrete Time Approximations of Brownian Motion on Manifolds

Let (S(t)) be a one-parameter family S = (S(t)) of positive integral operators on a locally compact space L. For a possibly non-uniform partition of [0,1] define a measure on the path space C([0,1],L) by using a) S(dt) for the transition between cosecutive partition times of distance dt, and b) a suitable continuous interpolation scheme (e.g. Brownian bridges or geodesics). If necessary normalize to get a probability measure. We prove a version of Chernoff's theorem of semigroup theory and tighness results which together yield convergence in law of such measures as the partition gets finer. In particular let L be a closed smooth submanifold of a Riemannian manifold M. We prove convergence of Brownian motion on M, conditioned to visit L at all partition times, to a process on L whose law has a Radon-Nikodym density with repect to Brownian motion on L which contains scalar, mean and sectional curvature terms. Various approximation schemes for Brownian motion are also given. These results substantially extend earlier work by the authors and by Andersson and Driver.Comment: 35 pages, revised version for publication, more detailed expositio