14,501 research outputs found
Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks
Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem
across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output,
electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in
these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and
short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive
models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep
learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet),
to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network
(CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local
dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time
series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to
tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our
evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns,
LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several
state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are
available online.Comment: Accepted by SIGIR 201
High-Dimensional Regression with Gaussian Mixtures and Partially-Latent Response Variables
In this work we address the problem of approximating high-dimensional data
with a low-dimensional representation. We make the following contributions. We
propose an inverse regression method which exchanges the roles of input and
response, such that the low-dimensional variable becomes the regressor, and
which is tractable. We introduce a mixture of locally-linear probabilistic
mapping model that starts with estimating the parameters of inverse regression,
and follows with inferring closed-form solutions for the forward parameters of
the high-dimensional regression problem of interest. Moreover, we introduce a
partially-latent paradigm, such that the vector-valued response variable is
composed of both observed and latent entries, thus being able to deal with data
contaminated by experimental artifacts that cannot be explained with noise
models. The proposed probabilistic formulation could be viewed as a
latent-variable augmentation of regression. We devise expectation-maximization
(EM) procedures based on a data augmentation strategy which facilitates the
maximum-likelihood search over the model parameters. We propose two
augmentation schemes and we describe in detail the associated EM inference
procedures that may well be viewed as generalizations of a number of EM
regression, dimension reduction, and factor analysis algorithms. The proposed
framework is validated with both synthetic and real data. We provide
experimental evidence that our method outperforms several existing regression
techniques
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