Two quantative scenarios for the future of manufacturing in Europe

This paper presents two scenarios for the future of manufacturing in Europe with varying trends in globalisation, technological progress and energy efficiency. From these scenarios, we conclude that the trend towards a services economy is likely to continue with employment shifting away from manufacturing towards services. However, manufacturing production still grows and is important for trade in Europe. The sectors which are already the most open ones for international trade are also the ones mostly affected by this trend. These include chemicals, rubber and plastics, the combined machinery and equipment sectors, textiles and wearing apparel, and wood and other manufacturing. R&D policies and internal market policies in Europe can have strong positive impact on manufacturing. These policies do not alter the trend that Europe's share in global production and trade will continue to decline, but they do mitigate the overall decline, in particular in the chemicals, rubber and plastics, and combined machinery and equipment sectors.

Future scenarios to inspire innovation

In recent years and accelerated by the economic and financial crisis, complex global issues have moved to the forefront of policy making. These grand challenges require policy makers to address a variety of interrelated issues, which are built upon yet uncoordinated and dispersed bodies of knowledge. Due to the social dynamics of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging, however there is lack of exploitation of innovative solutions. In this paper we argue that issues of how knowledge is represented can have a part in this lack of exploitation. For example, when drivers of change are not only multiple but also mutable, it is not sensible to extrapolate the future from data and relationships of the past. This paper investigates ways in which futures thinking can be used as a tool for inspiring actions and structures that address the grand challenges. By analysing several scenario cases, elements of good practice and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified. This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems

Scenarios for the future Lithuanian State forest sector

Three alternative scenarios to the much debated present organisation of the Lithuanian State forest sector are examined: (i) the integrated, where all functions are delegated to one central administrative authority – the Danish prototype, (ii) the commercialised, where State forests are managed by a commercial State company – the Irish prototype, and (iii) the minimalistic, where only negligible forest areas of special importance remain in State ownership – the Swedish prototype. The scenarios are assessed according to six imperatives: (i) sort out the ambiguity of the present structure, (ii) increase the profitability, (iii) reduce the level of public spending, (iv) accommodate changes in ownership structure, (v) rely on a holistic approach, and (vi) comply with the national forest policy. If adopted, any of the scenarios would most likely improve the various elements of State forestry, although in substantially different ways. Politicians will take the final decision that may be supported by the findings of this study

Assessing scenarios on the future of work

In this paper will be discussed different types of scenarios and the aims for using scenarios. Normaly they are being used by organisations due to the need to anticipate processes, to support policy-making and to understand the complexities of relations. Such organisations can be private companies, R&D organisations and networks of organisations, or even by some public administration institutions. Some cases will be discussed as the methods for ongoing scenario-building process (Shell Internacional). Scenarios should anticipate possible relations among social actors as in the Triple Helix Model, and is possible to develop strategic intelligence in the innovation process that would enable the construction of scenarios. Such processes can be assessed. The focus will be made in relation to the steps chosen for the WORKS scenarios. In this case is there a model of work changes that can be used for foresight? Differences according to sectors were found, as well on other dimensions. Problems of assessment are analysed with specific application to the scenario construction methods.scenarios, foresight, assessment

Styling the Future. A philosophical account of scenarios & design

Since the end of the 1980s – the Decade of Style (Mort, 1996) – the value of style in design has fallen. Recent times (Whicher et al., 2015) see a focus on style as a sign of design’s immaturity, while a more mature design should be attending to process, strategy and policy creation. Design Thinking has been enjoying its success in the same spirit, where it is championed (Brown, 2008; Martin, 2009; Neumeier, 2009) as a way of taking design away from its early stage as ‘mere’ styling, towards the more thoughtful, serious matters of business. The philosopher Gilles Deleuze is of a different mind however. ‘Style,’ he writes (1995, p.31), ‘amounts to innovation.’ For us this engages not only a rethinking of design practice in particular, but also a reconsideration of the guiding principles of scenario planning. Deleuze’s thought entails the opportunity for styling to be an act that participates in driving all creativity towards making a successful future impact (Flynn & Chatman, 2004; Cox, 2005). A philosophical disruption of current design and scenarios orthodoxies offers a way of considering that style has a key role in the production of the future. Here, then, we will investigate the creative, even innovative, opportunities that emerge from a reworking of the value of style that comes from a critique of Design Thinking, a perspective on future-thinking (especially scenario planning (e.g. Schwartz, 1991; Li, 2014; Ramírez & Selin, 2014), but also some work from organisation and management studies (e.g. Tsoukas, 2005a, 2005b)), and an encounter with philosophy (particularly the work of Deleuze & Guattari (1984, 1987, 1994). We will highlight the affective capacities of style – in design and scenarios, both as creative constructing of futures – by way of creatively accessing uncertainty, complexity and indeterminacy in the production of strategic maps for living (both individuals and organisations)

Development of PV powered consumer products using future scenarios

Given the high potential of PV technology to reduce the environmental impact of electricity use of consumer products, it would be worthwhile to advance the application of PV systems in mass produced products. To date this field of application has been explored only to a limited extent. For this reason the developers of consumer products, the industrial designers, might be unaware of the possibilities of product-integrated PV systems [1][2]. Their focus on the utility of consumer products might have an added value to existing R&D of PV technology which emphasizes on increased performance and decreased production cost. In the nearby future integration of both points of view might be important to better integrate PV cells in consumer products. Therefore, in this paper, we will assess industrial product design of integrated PV technology in the context of future scenarios. In our project about 25 product designers have conceptually designed products with integrated flexible PV cells within a future scenario. By observing the resulting cases we can evaluate how the design process was established in the framework of integrated technology design, the product phase model and future scenarios. The PV-powered products that will be evaluated are an electronic book, an information bracelet, a floating platform, sports garment and a robotic monitoring device. Each product is supported by visual materials such as renderings and an explanation of the design process based on scenarios

The solar neutrino puzzle: present situation and future scenarios

We present a short review of the existing evidence in favor of neutrino mass and neutrino oscillations which come from different kinds of experiments. We focus our attention in particular on solar neutrinos, presenting a global updated phenomenological analysis of all the available data and we comment on different possible future scenarios.Comment: 22 pp. Expanded version of the contribution to appear in the Proceedings of ``Les Rencontres de Physique de la Vallee d'Aoste'', February 200

Cyprus-EU Relations: Possible Scenarios For The Future

Cyprus Problem is being discussed from a different perspective since the application of South Cyprus for full membership to the European Union. Today the problem came to a turning point where the efforts for solving the problem would end up at a point where the division of the island becomes permanent. The study first evaluates the relations between Cyprus and the Union. Then it examines the application of GCA to the EU, the reasons for application, Turkish Cypriot’s response to the application and possible future scenarios that are likely to take place. It is concluded that the acceptance of Cyprus to the Union in its current state is a highly possible scenario and this would lead to the permanent division of the island.Cyprus problem; EU; Turkish Cyprus; GCA

Forecast of Future Aviation Fuels. Part 1: Scenarios

A preliminary set of scenarios is described for depicting the air transport industry as it grows and changes, up to the year 2025. This provides the background for predicting the needs for future aviation fuels to meet the requirements of the industry as new basic sources, such as oil shale and coal, which are utilized to supplement petroleum. Five scenarios are written to encompass a range of futures from a serious resource-constrained economy to a continuous and optimistic economic growth. A unique feature is the choice of one immediate range scenario which is based on a serious interruption of economic growth occasioned by an energy shortfall. This is presumed to occur due to lags in starting a synfuels program