12,813 research outputs found

    A hybrid model for day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Combining fundamental and stochastic modelling

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    The accurate prediction of short-term electricity prices is vital for effective trading strategies, power plant scheduling, profit maximisation and efficient system operation. However, uncertainties in supply and demand make such predictions challenging. We propose a hybrid model that combines a techno-economic energy system model with stochastic models to address this challenge. The techno-economic model in our hybrid approach provides a deep understanding of the market. It captures the underlying factors and their impacts on electricity prices, which is impossible with statistical models alone. The statistical models incorporate non-techno-economic aspects, such as the expectations and speculative behaviour of market participants, through the interpretation of prices. The hybrid model generates both conventional point predictions and probabilistic forecasts, providing a comprehensive understanding of the market landscape. Probabilistic forecasts are particularly valuable because they account for market uncertainty, facilitating informed decision-making and risk management. Our model delivers state-of-the-art results, helping market participants to make informed decisions and operate their systems more efficiently

    Endogenous measures for contextualising large-scale social phenomena: a corpus-based method for mediated public discourse

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    This work presents an interdisciplinary methodology for developing endogenous measures of group membership through analysis of pervasive linguistic patterns in public discourse. Focusing on political discourse, this work critiques the conventional approach to the study of political participation, which is premised on decontextualised, exogenous measures to characterise groups. Considering the theoretical and empirical weaknesses of decontextualised approaches to large-scale social phenomena, this work suggests that contextualisation using endogenous measures might provide a complementary perspective to mitigate such weaknesses. This work develops a sociomaterial perspective on political participation in mediated discourse as affiliatory action performed through language. While the affiliatory function of language is often performed consciously (such as statements of identity), this work is concerned with unconscious features (such as patterns in lexis and grammar). This work argues that pervasive patterns in such features that emerge through socialisation are resistant to change and manipulation, and thus might serve as endogenous measures of sociopolitical contexts, and thus of groups. In terms of method, the work takes a corpus-based approach to the analysis of data from the Twitter messaging service whereby patterns in users’ speech are examined statistically in order to trace potential community membership. The method is applied in the US state of Michigan during the second half of 2018—6 November having been the date of midterm (i.e. non-Presidential) elections in the United States. The corpus is assembled from the original posts of 5,889 users, who are nominally geolocalised to 417 municipalities. These users are clustered according to pervasive language features. Comparing the linguistic clusters according to the municipalities they represent finds that there are regular sociodemographic differentials across clusters. This is understood as an indication of social structure, suggesting that endogenous measures derived from pervasive patterns in language may indeed offer a complementary, contextualised perspective on large-scale social phenomena

    Scaling up integrated photonic reservoirs towards low-power high-bandwidth computing

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    A Design Science Research Approach to Smart and Collaborative Urban Supply Networks

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    Urban supply networks are facing increasing demands and challenges and thus constitute a relevant field for research and practical development. Supply chain management holds enormous potential and relevance for society and everyday life as the flow of goods and information are important economic functions. Being a heterogeneous field, the literature base of supply chain management research is difficult to manage and navigate. Disruptive digital technologies and the implementation of cross-network information analysis and sharing drive the need for new organisational and technological approaches. Practical issues are manifold and include mega trends such as digital transformation, urbanisation, and environmental awareness. A promising approach to solving these problems is the realisation of smart and collaborative supply networks. The growth of artificial intelligence applications in recent years has led to a wide range of applications in a variety of domains. However, the potential of artificial intelligence utilisation in supply chain management has not yet been fully exploited. Similarly, value creation increasingly takes place in networked value creation cycles that have become continuously more collaborative, complex, and dynamic as interactions in business processes involving information technologies have become more intense. Following a design science research approach this cumulative thesis comprises the development and discussion of four artefacts for the analysis and advancement of smart and collaborative urban supply networks. This thesis aims to highlight the potential of artificial intelligence-based supply networks, to advance data-driven inter-organisational collaboration, and to improve last mile supply network sustainability. Based on thorough machine learning and systematic literature reviews, reference and system dynamics modelling, simulation, and qualitative empirical research, the artefacts provide a valuable contribution to research and practice

    Allergies to food and airborne allergens in children and adolescents : role of epigenetics in a changing environment

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    Allergic diseases today affect millions of children and adolescents worldwide. In this review, we focus on allergies to food and airborne allergens, and provide examples of prevalence trends during a time when climate change is of increasing concern. Profound environmental changes have affected natural systems in terms of biodiversity loss, air pollution levels and climate change. We discuss potential links between these changes and allergic diseases in children, as well as clinical implications. Several exposures of relevance for allergic disease also correlate with epigenetic changes such as DNA-methylation levels. We propose that epigenetics may offer a promising tool by which exposures and hazards related to a changing environment may be captured. Epigenetics may also provide promising biomarkers and help elucidation of mechanisms related to allergic disease initiation and progress. Key messages: • Allergic diseases affect millions of children and adolescents worldwide; between 5 and 30% of adolescents report rhino-conjunctivitis symptoms and up to 10 % report food allergy. • Links between climate change and allergic diseases are of increasing concern, and these include: extended and altered pollen seasons, spread of allergens to new areas along with changing and warmer climate, air pollution exposures changes, increasing exposure to heat events, and altered biodiversity. • These new climate change aspects of allergic diseases have clinical implications for prevention, diagnostics and treatment. • Epigenetic changes, exemplified by DNA methylation, are associated both with environmental exposures and allergic diseases, although causality needs to be explored further. • There is potential in the use of epigenetic signatures and omics profiles to detect and monitor aspects of environmental exposures of relevance for health and disease in children and adolescents.H2020 research program (TRIBAL, No 757919; EXPANSE project, No 874627; Prominent)Swedish Research CouncilSwedish Heart-Lung FoundationRegion StockholmUS National Institutes of Health (R01 AI118833, R01 AI147028, U01 AI160082, and U19 AI136053)ZON-MW (VICI grant)Netherlands Lung FoundationGSKVertexTEVA the NetherlandsNovo Nordisk Foundation Challenge Programme (#NNF17OC0027812)Accepte

    Countermeasures for the majority attack in blockchain distributed systems

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    La tecnología Blockchain es considerada como uno de los paradigmas informáticos más importantes posterior al Internet; en función a sus características únicas que la hacen ideal para registrar, verificar y administrar información de diferentes transacciones. A pesar de esto, Blockchain se enfrenta a diferentes problemas de seguridad, siendo el ataque del 51% o ataque mayoritario uno de los más importantes. Este consiste en que uno o más mineros tomen el control de al menos el 51% del Hash extraído o del cómputo en una red; de modo que un minero puede manipular y modificar arbitrariamente la información registrada en esta tecnología. Este trabajo se enfocó en diseñar e implementar estrategias de detección y mitigación de ataques mayoritarios (51% de ataque) en un sistema distribuido Blockchain, a partir de la caracterización del comportamiento de los mineros. Para lograr esto, se analizó y evaluó el Hash Rate / Share de los mineros de Bitcoin y Crypto Ethereum, seguido del diseño e implementación de un protocolo de consenso para controlar el poder de cómputo de los mineros. Posteriormente, se realizó la exploración y evaluación de modelos de Machine Learning para detectar software malicioso de tipo Cryptojacking.DoctoradoDoctor en Ingeniería de Sistemas y Computació

    Examples of works to practice staccato technique in clarinet instrument

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    Klarnetin staccato tekniğini güçlendirme aşamaları eser çalışmalarıyla uygulanmıştır. Staccato geçişlerini hızlandıracak ritim ve nüans çalışmalarına yer verilmiştir. Çalışmanın en önemli amacı sadece staccato çalışması değil parmak-dilin eş zamanlı uyumunun hassasiyeti üzerinde de durulmasıdır. Staccato çalışmalarını daha verimli hale getirmek için eser çalışmasının içinde etüt çalışmasına da yer verilmiştir. Çalışmaların üzerinde titizlikle durulması staccato çalışmasının ilham verici etkisi ile müzikal kimliğe yeni bir boyut kazandırmıştır. Sekiz özgün eser çalışmasının her aşaması anlatılmıştır. Her aşamanın bir sonraki performans ve tekniği güçlendirmesi esas alınmıştır. Bu çalışmada staccato tekniğinin hangi alanlarda kullanıldığı, nasıl sonuçlar elde edildiği bilgisine yer verilmiştir. Notaların parmak ve dil uyumu ile nasıl şekilleneceği ve nasıl bir çalışma disiplini içinde gerçekleşeceği planlanmıştır. Kamış-nota-diyafram-parmak-dil-nüans ve disiplin kavramlarının staccato tekniğinde ayrılmaz bir bütün olduğu saptanmıştır. Araştırmada literatür taraması yapılarak staccato ile ilgili çalışmalar taranmıştır. Tarama sonucunda klarnet tekniğin de kullanılan staccato eser çalışmasının az olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Metot taramasında da etüt çalışmasının daha çok olduğu saptanmıştır. Böylelikle klarnetin staccato tekniğini hızlandırma ve güçlendirme çalışmaları sunulmuştur. Staccato etüt çalışmaları yapılırken, araya eser çalışmasının girmesi beyni rahatlattığı ve istekliliği daha arttırdığı gözlemlenmiştir. Staccato çalışmasını yaparken doğru bir kamış seçimi üzerinde de durulmuştur. Staccato tekniğini doğru çalışmak için doğru bir kamışın dil hızını arttırdığı saptanmıştır. Doğru bir kamış seçimi kamıştan rahat ses çıkmasına bağlıdır. Kamış, dil atma gücünü vermiyorsa daha doğru bir kamış seçiminin yapılması gerekliliği vurgulanmıştır. Staccato çalışmalarında baştan sona bir eseri yorumlamak zor olabilir. Bu açıdan çalışma, verilen müzikal nüanslara uymanın, dil atış performansını rahatlattığını ortaya koymuştur. Gelecek nesillere edinilen bilgi ve birikimlerin aktarılması ve geliştirici olması teşvik edilmiştir. Çıkacak eserlerin nasıl çözüleceği, staccato tekniğinin nasıl üstesinden gelinebileceği anlatılmıştır. Staccato tekniğinin daha kısa sürede çözüme kavuşturulması amaç edinilmiştir. Parmakların yerlerini öğrettiğimiz kadar belleğimize de çalışmaların kaydedilmesi önemlidir. Gösterilen azmin ve sabrın sonucu olarak ortaya çıkan yapıt başarıyı daha da yukarı seviyelere çıkaracaktır

    Anuário científico da Escola Superior de Tecnologia da Saúde de Lisboa - 2021

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    É com grande prazer que apresentamos a mais recente edição (a 11.ª) do Anuário Científico da Escola Superior de Tecnologia da Saúde de Lisboa. Como instituição de ensino superior, temos o compromisso de promover e incentivar a pesquisa científica em todas as áreas do conhecimento que contemplam a nossa missão. Esta publicação tem como objetivo divulgar toda a produção científica desenvolvida pelos Professores, Investigadores, Estudantes e Pessoal não Docente da ESTeSL durante 2021. Este Anuário é, assim, o reflexo do trabalho árduo e dedicado da nossa comunidade, que se empenhou na produção de conteúdo científico de elevada qualidade e partilhada com a Sociedade na forma de livros, capítulos de livros, artigos publicados em revistas nacionais e internacionais, resumos de comunicações orais e pósteres, bem como resultado dos trabalhos de 1º e 2º ciclo. Com isto, o conteúdo desta publicação abrange uma ampla variedade de tópicos, desde temas mais fundamentais até estudos de aplicação prática em contextos específicos de Saúde, refletindo desta forma a pluralidade e diversidade de áreas que definem, e tornam única, a ESTeSL. Acreditamos que a investigação e pesquisa científica é um eixo fundamental para o desenvolvimento da sociedade e é por isso que incentivamos os nossos estudantes a envolverem-se em atividades de pesquisa e prática baseada na evidência desde o início dos seus estudos na ESTeSL. Esta publicação é um exemplo do sucesso desses esforços, sendo a maior de sempre, o que faz com que estejamos muito orgulhosos em partilhar os resultados e descobertas dos nossos investigadores com a comunidade científica e o público em geral. Esperamos que este Anuário inspire e motive outros estudantes, profissionais de saúde, professores e outros colaboradores a continuarem a explorar novas ideias e contribuir para o avanço da ciência e da tecnologia no corpo de conhecimento próprio das áreas que compõe a ESTeSL. Agradecemos a todos os envolvidos na produção deste anuário e desejamos uma leitura inspiradora e agradável.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

    Robo3D: Towards Robust and Reliable 3D Perception against Corruptions

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    The robustness of 3D perception systems under natural corruptions from environments and sensors is pivotal for safety-critical applications. Existing large-scale 3D perception datasets often contain data that are meticulously cleaned. Such configurations, however, cannot reflect the reliability of perception models during the deployment stage. In this work, we present Robo3D, the first comprehensive benchmark heading toward probing the robustness of 3D detectors and segmentors under out-of-distribution scenarios against natural corruptions that occur in real-world environments. Specifically, we consider eight corruption types stemming from adversarial weather conditions, external disturbances, and internal sensor failure. We uncover that, although promising results have been progressively achieved on standard benchmarks, state-of-the-art 3D perception models are at risk of being vulnerable to corruptions. We draw key observations on the use of data representations, augmentation schemes, and training strategies, that could severely affect the model's performance. To pursue better robustness, we propose a density-insensitive training framework along with a simple flexible voxelization strategy to enhance the model resiliency. We hope our benchmark and approach could inspire future research in designing more robust and reliable 3D perception models. Our robustness benchmark suite is publicly available.Comment: 33 pages, 26 figures, 26 tables; code at https://github.com/ldkong1205/Robo3D project page at https://ldkong.com/Robo3

    A generalised multi-factor deep learning electricity load forecasting model for wildfire-prone areas

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    This paper proposes a generalised and robust multi-factor Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) based Deep Learning (DL) model to forecast electricity load in distribution networks during wildfire seasons. The flexible modelling methods consider data input structure, calendar effects and correlation-based leading temperature conditions. Compared to the regular use of instantaneous temperature, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is decreased by 30.73% by using the proposed input feature selection and leading temperature relationships. Our model is generalised and applied to eight real distribution networks in Victoria, Australia, during the wildfire seasons of 2015-2020. We demonstrate that the GRU-based model consistently outperforms another DL model, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), at every step, giving average improvements in Mean Squared Error (MSE) and MAPE of 10.06% and 12.86%, respectively. The sensitivity to large-scale climate variability in training data sets, e.g. El Ni\~no or La Ni\~na years, is considered to understand the possible consequences for load forecasting performance stability, showing minimal impact. Other factors such as regional poverty rate and large-scale off-peak electricity use are potential factors to further improve forecast performance. The proposed method achieves an average forecast MAPE of around 3%, giving a potential annual energy saving of AU\$80.46 million for the state of Victoria
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