Identifying the consequences of dynamic treatment strategies: A decision-theoretic overview

We consider the problem of learning about and comparing the consequences of dynamic treatment strategies on the basis of observational data. We formulate this within a probabilistic decision-theoretic framework. Our approach is compared with related work by Robins and others: in particular, we show how Robins's 'G-computation' algorithm arises naturally from this decision-theoretic perspective. Careful attention is paid to the mathematical and substantive conditions required to justify the use of this formula. These conditions revolve around a property we term stability, which relates the probabilistic behaviours of observational and interventional regimes. We show how an assumption of 'sequential randomization' (or 'no unmeasured confounders'), or an alternative assumption of 'sequential irrelevance', can be used to infer stability. Probabilistic influence diagrams are used to simplify manipulations, and their power and limitations are discussed. We compare our approach with alternative formulations based on causal DAGs or potential response models. We aim to show that formulating the problem of assessing dynamic treatment strategies as a problem of decision analysis brings clarity, simplicity and generality.Comment: 49 pages, 15 figure

THE SEMANTICS OF GOVERNANCE. (The common thread running through corporate, public, and global governance.)

This paper argues that the semantics of governance illustrates connections and provides a unifying view from which to understand much better its natural branches: corporate, public and global governance. In this regard, governance is presented from the point of view of a distinctive field of learning and practice. Further, three levels of analysis are carried out to drive the subject home. Firstly, it highlights the extent of corporate governance within an institutional framework, and also gives heed to some performance measurement devices: the governance index, the comparativeeconomics approach, and the governance slack model. Secondly, it frames the notion of public governance while due regard is given to the World Bank’s methodology and the public governance wave of reforms in the 80s and 90s. Afterwards, the development goes further to handle the linkage among constituents, charters and representation, so as to later cope with the problems raised by accountability and reputational intermediaries. Thirdly, it addresses the semantics of global governance, country assessments and corporate governance in global settings.Corporate Governance, Public Governance, Global Governance

Scenic: A Language for Scenario Specification and Scene Generation

We propose a new probabilistic programming language for the design and analysis of perception systems, especially those based on machine learning. Specifically, we consider the problems of training a perception system to handle rare events, testing its performance under different conditions, and debugging failures. We show how a probabilistic programming language can help address these problems by specifying distributions encoding interesting types of inputs and sampling these to generate specialized training and test sets. More generally, such languages can be used for cyber-physical systems and robotics to write environment models, an essential prerequisite to any formal analysis. In this paper, we focus on systems like autonomous cars and robots, whose environment is a "scene", a configuration of physical objects and agents. We design a domain-specific language, Scenic, for describing "scenarios" that are distributions over scenes. As a probabilistic programming language, Scenic allows assigning distributions to features of the scene, as well as declaratively imposing hard and soft constraints over the scene. We develop specialized techniques for sampling from the resulting distribution, taking advantage of the structure provided by Scenic's domain-specific syntax. Finally, we apply Scenic in a case study on a convolutional neural network designed to detect cars in road images, improving its performance beyond that achieved by state-of-the-art synthetic data generation methods.Comment: 41 pages, 36 figures. Full version of a PLDI 2019 paper (extending UC Berkeley EECS Department Tech Report No. UCB/EECS-2018-8

Reactive Rules for Emergency Management

The goal of the following survey on Event-Condition-Action (ECA) Rules is to come to a common understanding and intuition on this topic within EMILI. Thus it does not give an academic overview on Event-Condition-Action Rules which would be valuable for computer scientists only. Instead the survey tries to introduce Event-Condition-Action Rules and their use for emergency management based on real-life examples from the use-cases identified in Deliverable 3.1. In this way we hope to address both, computer scientists and security experts, by showing how the Event-Condition-Action Rule technology can help to solve security issues in emergency management. The survey incorporates information from other work packages, particularly from Deliverable D3.1 and its Annexes, D4.1, D2.1 and D6.2 wherever possible

Scather: programming with multi-party computation and MapReduce

We present a prototype of a distributed computational infrastructure, an associated high level programming language, and an underlying formal framework that allow multiple parties to leverage their own cloud-based computational resources (capable of supporting MapReduce [27] operations) in concert with multi-party computation (MPC) to execute statistical analysis algorithms that have privacy-preserving properties. Our architecture allows a data analyst unfamiliar with MPC to: (1) author an analysis algorithm that is agnostic with regard to data privacy policies, (2) to use an automated process to derive algorithm implementation variants that have different privacy and performance properties, and (3) to compile those implementation variants so that they can be deployed on an infrastructures that allows computations to take place locally within each participant’s MapReduce cluster as well as across all the participants’ clusters using an MPC protocol. We describe implementation details of the architecture, discuss and demonstrate how the formal framework enables the exploration of tradeoffs between the efficiency and privacy properties of an analysis algorithm, and present two example applications that illustrate how such an infrastructure can be utilized in practice.This work was supported in part by NSF Grants: #1430145, #1414119, #1347522, and #1012798

From Biological to Synthetic Neurorobotics Approaches to Understanding the Structure Essential to Consciousness (Part 3)

This third paper locates the synthetic neurorobotics research reviewed in the second paper in terms of themes introduced in the first paper. It begins with biological non-reductionism as understood by Searle. It emphasizes the role of synthetic neurorobotics studies in accessing the dynamic structure essential to consciousness with a focus on system criticality and self, develops a distinction between simulated and formal consciousness based on this emphasis, reviews Tani and colleagues' work in light of this distinction, and ends by forecasting the increasing importance of synthetic neurorobotics studies for cognitive science and philosophy of mind going forward, finally in regards to most- and myth-consciousness