Detecting Intentions of Vulnerable Road Users Based on Collective Intelligence

Vulnerable road users (VRUs, i.e. cyclists and pedestrians) will play an important role in future traffic. To avoid accidents and achieve a highly efficient traffic flow, it is important to detect VRUs and to predict their intentions. In this article a holistic approach for detecting intentions of VRUs by cooperative methods is presented. The intention detection consists of basic movement primitive prediction, e.g. standing, moving, turning, and a forecast of the future trajectory. Vehicles equipped with sensors, data processing systems and communication abilities, referred to as intelligent vehicles, acquire and maintain a local model of their surrounding traffic environment, e.g. crossing cyclists. Heterogeneous, open sets of agents (cooperating and interacting vehicles, infrastructure, e.g. cameras and laser scanners, and VRUs equipped with smart devices and body-worn sensors) exchange information forming a multi-modal sensor system with the goal to reliably and robustly detect VRUs and their intentions under consideration of real time requirements and uncertainties. The resulting model allows to extend the perceptual horizon of the individual agent beyond their own sensory capabilities, enabling a longer forecast horizon. Concealments, implausibilities and inconsistencies are resolved by the collective intelligence of cooperating agents. Novel techniques of signal processing and modelling in combination with analytical and learning based approaches of pattern and activity recognition are used for detection, as well as intention prediction of VRUs. Cooperation, by means of probabilistic sensor and knowledge fusion, takes place on the level of perception and intention recognition. Based on the requirements of the cooperative approach for the communication a new strategy for an ad hoc network is proposed.Comment: 20 pages, published at Automatisiertes und vernetztes Fahren (AAET), Braunschweig, Germany, 201

Transfer Learning in the Field of Renewable Energies -- A Transfer Learning Framework Providing Power Forecasts Throughout the Lifecycle of Wind Farms After Initial Connection to the Electrical Grid

In recent years, transfer learning gained particular interest in the field of vision and natural language processing. In the research field of vision, e.g., deep neural networks and transfer learning techniques achieve almost perfect classification scores within minutes. Nonetheless, these techniques are not yet widely applied in other domains. Therefore, this article identifies critical challenges and shows potential solutions for power forecasts in the field of renewable energies. It proposes a framework utilizing transfer learning techniques in wind power forecasts with limited or no historical data. On the one hand, this allows evaluating the applicability of transfer learning in the field of renewable energy. On the other hand, by developing automatic procedures, we assure that the proposed methods provide a framework that applies to domains in organic computing as well

Extended Coopetitive Soft Gating Ensemble

This article is about an extension of a recent ensemble method called Coopetitive Soft Gating Ensemble (CSGE) and its application on power forecasting as well as motion primitive forecasting of cyclists. The CSGE has been used successfully in the field of wind power forecasting, outperforming common algorithms in this domain. The principal idea of the CSGE is to weight the models regarding their observed performance during training on different aspects. Several extensions are proposed to the original CSGE within this article, making the ensemble even more flexible and powerful. The extended CSGE (XCSGE as we term it), is used to predict the power generation on both wind- and solar farms. Moreover, the XCSGE is applied to forecast the movement state of cyclists in the context of driver assistance systems. Both domains have different requirements, are non-trivial problems, and are used to evaluate various facets of the novel XCSGE. The two problems differ fundamentally in the size of the data sets and the number of features. Power forecasting is based on weather forecasts that are subject to fluctuations in their features. In the movement primitive forecasting of cyclists, time delays contribute to the difficulty of the prediction. The XCSGE reaches an improvement of the prediction performance of up to 11% for wind power forecasting and 30% for solar power forecasting compared to the worst performing model. For the classification of movement primitives of cyclists, the XCSGE reaches an improvement of up to 28%. The evaluation includes a comparison with other state-of-the-art ensemble methods. We can verify that the XCSGE results are significantly better using the Nemenyi post-hoc test.Comment: 14 pages; 15 figures; 10 table