Cluster Analysis and Model Comparison Using Smart Meter Data.

Load forecasting plays a crucial role in the world of smart grids. It governs many aspects of the smart grid and smart meter, such as demand response, asset management, investment, and future direction. This paper proposes time-series forecasting for short-term load prediction to unveil the load forecast benefits through different statistical and mathematical models, such as artificial neural networks, auto-regression, and ARIMA. It targets the problem of excessive computational load when dealing with time-series data. It also presents a business case that is used to analyze different clusters to find underlying factors of load consumption and predict the behavior of customers based on different parameters. On evaluating the accuracy of the prediction models, it is observed that ARIMA models with the (P, D, Q) values as (1, 1, 1) were most accurate compared to other values

Application of Deep Learning Long Short-Term Memory in Energy Demand Forecasting

The smart metering infrastructure has changed how electricity is measured in both residential and industrial application. The large amount of data collected by smart meter per day provides a huge potential for analytics to support the operation of a smart grid, an example of which is energy demand forecasting. Short term energy forecasting can be used by utilities to assess if any forecasted peak energy demand would have an adverse effect on the power system transmission and distribution infrastructure. It can also help in load scheduling and demand side management. Many techniques have been proposed to forecast time series including Support Vector Machine, Artificial Neural Network and Deep Learning. In this work we use Long Short Term Memory architecture to forecast 3-day ahead energy demand across each month in the year. The results show that 3-day ahead demand can be accurately forecasted with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 3.15%. In addition to that, the paper proposes way to quantify the time as a feature to be used in the training phase which is shown to affect the network performance