Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization

Over the period 1972-1986, the correlations of GDP, employment and investment between the United States and an aggregate of Europe, Canada and Japan were respectively 0.76, 0.66, and 0.63. For the period 1986 to 2000 the same correlations were much lower: 0.26, 0.03 and -0.07 (real regionalization). At the same time, U.S. international asset trade has significantly increased. For example, between 1972 and 1999, United States gross FDI and equity assets in the same group of countries rose from 4 to 23 percent of the U.S. capital stock (financial globalization). We document that the correlation of real shocks between the U.S. and the rest of the world has declined. We then present a model in which international financial market integration occurs endogenously in response to less correlated shocks. Financial integration further reduces the international correlations in GDP and factor supplies. We find that both less correlated shocks and endogenous financial market development are needed to account for all the changes in the international business cycle.

Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization

Over the period 1972-1986, the correlations of GDP, employment and investment between the United States and an aggregate of Europe, Canada and Japan were respectively 0.76, 0.66, and 0.63. For the period 1986 to 2000 the same correlations were much lower: 0.26, 0.03, and -0.07 (real regionalization). At the same time, U.S. international asset trade has significantly increased. For example, between 1972 and 1999, United States gross FDI and equity assets in the same group of countries rose from 4 to 23 percent of the U.S. capital stock (financial globalization). We argue that these two trends are intimately related. We document that the correlation of real shocks between the U.S. and the rest of the world has declined. We then present a model in which international financial market integration occurs endogenously in response to less correlated shocks. Financial integration further reduces the international correlations in GDP and factor supplies. We find that both less correlated shocks and endogenous financial market development are needed to account for all the changes in the international business cycle

Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization

Over the period 1972-1986, the U.S. business cycle was strongly correlated with the business cycle in the rest of the industrialized world. Over the period 1986-2000, international co-movement was much weaker (real regionalization). At the same time, U.S. international asset trade has increased significantly (financial globalization). We first document these phenomena in detail and then argue that they are related. In particular, we present a model in which financial globalization occurs endogenously in response to less correlated real shocks. Financial globalization, by enhancing cross-border capital flows, further reduces the international correlations in GDP and factor supplies. We find that both less correlated shocks and the endogenous change in international financial markets are needed to quantitatively account for the observed changes in the international business cycle.International business cycles, International diversification, Financial integration, Comovement

Ties that bind: bilateral trade's role in synchronizing business cycles

For most of the past year, economies in all parts of the world have been weakening--from outright recessions in the U.S. and parts of Europe to sharply slower growth in China, India and other emerging economies. The pattern provides the latest example of international business-cycle synchronization--the tendency for countries to experience macroeconomic fluctuations of similar timing and magnitude. ; While today's synchronization isn't unusual, it raises questions about the forces that transmit economic fluctuations from one country to another. An important factor to consider is international trade. Over long periods of time, countries with deeper trade ties are more closely synchronized. This occurs even though trade with any particular partner makes up a fairly small part of economic activity in most countries.International trade ; Business cycles

Global Financial Trade: How Far Have We Come?

In this paper, I review recent trends in global integration of financial systems and assess the implications for international macroeconomic adjustment. While recent growth in the scale of international balance sheets has been dramatic, product markets remain quite segmented. The mis-match between financial and real integration means that the role of exchange rates in international adjustment has taken on an even more crucial role Classification-financial globalization, net foreign assets, macroeconomic adjustment

No More Rocking Horses: Trading Business-Cycle Depth for Duration Using an Economy-Specific Characteristic.

Regarding the trade-off between the depth and the duration of recessions, there exists a mounting empirical evidence of the idiosyncratic and non-synchronized behavior of the business cycle over time within and across countries. In this paper, I propose a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium formulation wherein an economy-specific characteristic - labeled as the missing parameter - (e.g., the financial institutional framework and regulations) does control the magnitude, severity and persistence of the business cycle. The results of the simulations show that as much as 0.5 of a percentage point of GDP in depth and a relative difference of 3 years duration can be attributed to this parameter. Overlooked for decades, this missing parameter hypothesizes that Frisch's 'rocking-horse theory' of the business cycle is an inaccurate description of the business-cycle behavior.Business Cycle, Depth, Duration, Frisch's Rocking-Horse Theory, Economic Institutions, Real Business Cycles.

Economic Clubs and European Commitment. Evidence from the International Business Cycles

This paper examines the emergence of economic clubs and its coherence with the european commitments. to this end, it analyses business cycle comovements in six industrialised economies, which are pooled into several clusters. results lead to conclude that an english-speaking club (canada, uk, us) is emerging in the last decades, whereas explicit and formal commitments seem to have had a relatively weaker power in determining euro-zone business cycles comovements. while the broad conclusions are consistent with the existing literature the proposed empirical framework is not based on correlations testing, under very few assumptions, the relative cyclical association via the marginal homogeneity in 2x2 contingency tables.business cycles, synchronization, turning points, nonparametric test

The "Great Moderation" and the US External Imbalance

The early 1980s marked the onset of two striking features of the current world macro-economy: the fall in US business cycle volatility (the "great moderation") and the large and persistent US external imbalance. In this paper we argue that an external imbalance is a natural consequence of the great moderation. If a country experiences a fall in volatility greater than that of its partners, its relative incentives to accumulate precautionary savings fall and this results in an equilibrium permanent deterioration of its external balance. To assess how much of the current US imbalance can be explained by this channel, we consider a standard two country business cycle model in which households are subject to country specific shocks they cannot perfectly insure against. The model suggests that a fall in business cycle volatility like the one observed for the US relatively to other major economies can account for about 20% of the current total US external imbalance.

Some Business Cycle Consequences of Trade Agreements:The Case of the North American Free Trade Agreement

This paper investigates the effects of signing a trade agreement on the correlations of the business cycle fluctuations of consumption, investment and output between two countries. We construct an international business cycle model with trade costs and we calibrate it to the United States and Mexico in order to estimate the impact of NAFTA on their co-movements. Although there exist some discrepancies between the theory and data in the degree of correlation, the direction of change corresponds to the one in the data.International Business Cycles, Trade Agreements, International Co-movements

Proceedings of the Conference on Human and Economic Resources

We estimate the amount of income and consumption smoothing (risk sharing) between countries in the European Monetary Union (EMU) and between other developed countries during the period 1970–2003. In particular, we examine if EMU countries display different patterns of risk sharing than other developed countries in the period leading up to and following the formation of the EMU in 1999. We find that income smoothing from international factor income has increased in the EMU since the introduction of the EMU and that consumption smoothing from procyclical government saving has declined steeply in the EMU since the signing of the Maastricht treaty.EMU, Risk Sharing, economic determinants of risk sharing