Critical issues in microbusiness finance and the role of donors . [Version Sept. 1977]

In the early 1990s, a consensus emerged among the leading experts in the field of small and micro business finance. It is based on three elements: The focus of projects should be on improving the entire financial sector of a given developing country; a commercial approach should be adopted, which implies covering costs and keeping costs as low as possible; and institutions should be created which are both able and willing to provide good financial services to the target group on a lasting basis. The starting point for this paper, which wholeheartedly endorses these three elements, is the proposition that putting these general principles into practice is much more difficult than some of their proponents seem to believe - and also more difficult than some of them have led donors to believe. The paper discusses the central issues of small and micro business financing in three areas: credit in general and the cost-effectiveness of lending methodologies in particular (Section II); savings in general and the role of deposit-taking in the growth of a target group-oriented financial institution in particular (Section III); and the process of creating viable target group-oriented financial institutions in developing countries (Section IV). We argue that donor institutions must be willing, and prepared, to play a role here which differs in important respects from their conventional role if they really wish to support sustainable financial sector development

Flexibility in inflation targeting, financial markets and macroeconomic stability

Using an aggregate dynamic macroeconomic model, we study the macroeconomic and financial stability under flexible inflation-targeting regime associated with intermediate monetary growth target. Central banks, using the inflation target as a communication and strong nominal anchoring device, should also take into account the movements of asset prices in their optimal interest rate rule. They might react to changes in asset prices without introducing asset prices into the description of their policy objectives. We show that, the more flexible the inflation-targeting framework of monetary policy is, the more likely the monetary authorities are able to stabilise the economy around the long-term equilibrium. Therefore, achieving price stability under inflation-targeting regime with low flexibility can generate dynamic instability and will not be able to stabilise effectively the fluctuations of output and inflation. A commitment to a long run growth rate of money supply corresponding to the inflation target can reinforce the credibility of the central bank and the role of inflation target as strong and credible nominal anchor for private inflation expectations and allows the system to be more stability prone.Flexible inflation targeting, monetary targeting, optimal interest rate rule, stock price, financial development, financial markets, financial and macroeconomic instability

Factors that influence grower adoption and implementation of the ENZA Integrated Fruit Production programme : a thesis presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Applied Science in Agriculture - Horticulture Systems and Management at Massey University

To maintain marker access to the key pipfruit export markets of Europe and the UK ENZAFRUIT New Zealand LTD has set a target of 100 percent grower adoption of the ENZA Integrated Fruit Production programme (ENZA-IFP) by the year 2001. In 1996 eighty eight growers had adopted the programme out of a total of 1650 growers nationally, hence the adoption rate required to met this target is very steep. However, little is known about New Zealand growers' attitudes towards the ENZA-IFP programme, or the factors that may influence the programme's adoption. Interviews of randomly selected IFP and non-IFP growers were held in Hawke's Bay and Nelson during August 1997. The purpose of the interviews was to determine the factors that influence the adoption of the ENZA-IFP programme, identify differences between IFP and non IFP growers, and identify themes of technology transfer methods that may encourage grower adoption of the ENZA-IFP programme. The results of the IFP and non-IFP case study research were cross compared, then compared and contrasted with the factors identified in the reviewed literature. The key reasons the IFP growers had adopted the ENZA-IFP programme were for philosophical and environmental factors. Market access was also a key motivating factor. Financial factors, perceived risk, and poor communication were the key factors hindering adoption tor the non-IFP growers. The main financial factors were loss of the USA supply programme incentive and a lack of financial incentives to adopt IFP. Perceived risk was in the form of a perceived increase in pest and disease damage and resulting financial loss. To reach ENZA's target of 100 percent grower adoption by 2001, growers need both clear guidelines on how this is going to be met and financial incentives over the transition period to motivate adoption. IFP technologies that bring direct financial benefits to growers, have a participatory technology transfer system, have a low level of complexity and perceived risk, and fit with a growers current production system and resources are likely to be adopted more readily. Keywords: Integrated Fruit Production, Adoption, Implementatio

Monetary Policy and Real Stabilization

Monetary policy can achieve average inflation equal to a given inflation target and, at best, a good compromise between inflation variability and output-gap variability. Monetary policy cannot completely stabilize either inflation or the output gap. Increased credibility in the form of inflation expectations anchored on the inflation target will reduce the variability of inflation and the output gap. Central banks can improve transparency and accountability by specifying not only an inflation target but also the dislike of output-gap variability relative to inflation variability. Central banks can best achieve both the long-run inflation target and the best compromise between inflation and output-gap stability by engaging in forecast targeting,' where the bank selects the feasible combination of inflation and output-gap projections that minimize the loss function and the corresponding instrument-rate plan and sets the instrument-rate accordingly. Forecast targeting implies that the instrument responds to all information that significantly affects the projections of inflation and the output gap. Therefore it cannot be expressed in terms of a simple instrument rule, like a Taylor rule. The objective of financial stability, including a well-functioning payment system, can conveniently be considered as a restriction on monetary policy that does not bind in normal times, but does bind in times of financial crises. By producing and publishing Financial Stability Reports with indicators of financial stability, the central bank can monitor the degree of financial stability and issue warnings to concerned agents and authorities in due time and this way avoid deteriorating financial stability. Forecast targeting implies that asset-price developments and potential asset-price bubbles are taken into account and responded to the extent that they are deemed to affect the projections of the target variables, inflation and the output gap. In most cases, it will be difficult to make precise judgments, though, especially to identify bubbles with reasonable certainty. The zero bound, liquidity traps and risks of deflation are serious concerns for a monetary policy aimed at low inflation. Forecast targeting with a symmetric positive inflation target keeps the risk of the zero bound, liquidity traps and deflation small. Prudent central banks may want to prepare in advance contingency plans for situations when a series of bad shocks substantially increases the risk

The Opportunistic approach to monetary policy and financial markets

We test the concept of the Opportunistic Approach to monetary policy in South Africa post 2000 inflation targeting regime. Our findings support the two features of the opportunistic approach. First, we find that the models that include an intermediate target that reflects the recent history of inflation rather than simple inflation target improve the fit of the models. Second, the data supports the view that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) behaves with some degree of nonresponsiveness when inflation is within the zone of discretion but react aggressively otherwise. Recursive estimates from our preferred model reveal that overall there has been a subdued reaction to inflation, output and financial conditions amidst the increased economic uncertainty of the 2007- 2009 financial crisis.monetary policy, opportunistic approach, intermediate inflation, financial conditions

Lessons for monetary policy: what should the consensus be?

This paper outlines important lessons for monetary policy. In particular, the role of inflation targeting, which was much acclaimed prior to the financial crisis and since then has not lost much of its endorsement, is critically reviewed. Ignoring the relation between monetary policy and asset prices, as is the case in this monetary policy approach, can lead to financial instability. In contrast, giving, inter alia, monetary factors a role in central banks’ policy decisions, as is done in the ECB’s encompassing approach, helps prevent these potentially harmful side effects and thus allows for fostering financial stability. Finally, this paper makes a case against increasing the central banks’ inflation target. JEL Classification: E44, E52, E58 Keywords: Inflation Targeting, Asset Prices, Financial Stability, EC

Effects of foreign acquisitions on financial constraints, productivity and investment in R&D of target firms in China

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.This paper examines whether foreign acquisitions lessen financial constraints, improve investment in research & development (R&D) and productivity of the target firms in China based on a sample of 914 cross-border mergers and acquisitions (CBM&A) over the period of 1994-2011. Using investment to cash-flow sensitivity to measure financial constraints, we find that foreign acquisitions in China are associated with a reduction of target firms’ financial constraints, irrespective of the ownership type of the target firm. However, the extent of financial constraint reduction is pronounced for non-SOEs compared to state-owned enterprises (SOEs). This study also provides evidence that foreign acquisitions improve Chinese target firms’ productivity and investment in R&D

Methodological Approach to Company Cash Flows Target-Oriented Forecasting Based on Financial Position Analysis

The article treats a new methodological approach to the company cash flows target-oriented forecasting based on its financial position analysis. The approach is featured to be universal and presumes application of the following techniques developed by the author: financial ratio values correction techniques and correcting cash flows techniques. The financial ratio values correction technique assumes to analyze and forecast company financial position while the correcting cash flows technique is related to company cash inflows and outflows forecast enabling to improve its financial position. Basing on computation results one can put forward proposals to establish target-oriented company financial strategy with a view to improve its financial position.target-oriented forecasting, cash flows, financial ratios, financial position

Domestic or U.S. News: What Drives Canadian Financial Markets?

Using a GARCH model, we study the effects of Canadian and U.S. central bank communication and macroeconomic news on Canadian bond, stock, and foreign exchange market returns and volatility. First, central bank communication and macro news from both countries have an impact on Canadian financial markets. Second, Canadian central bank communication is more relevant than its U.S. counterpart, whereas in the case of macro news, that originating from the United States dominates. Third, we find evidence that the impact of Canadian news reaches its maximum when the Canadian target rate departs from the Federal Funds target rate (2002–2004) and thereafter. The introduction of fixed announcement dates (FAD) initially does not cause a noticeable break in the data. Finally, Canadian and U.S. target rate changes lead to higher price volatility, and so does other U.S. news. Other Canadian news, however, lowers price volatility.Bank of Canada, Central Bank Communication, Federal Reserve Bank, Financial Markets, Macroeconomic News, Monetary Policy

Pursuing financial stability under an inflation-targeting regime

We evaluate two main views on pursuing financial stability within a flexible inflation targeting regime. It appears that potential gains from an activist or precautionary approach to promoting financial stability are highly shock dependent. We find support for the conventional view that concern for financial stability generally warrants a longer target horizon for inflation. The preferred target horizon depends on the financial stability indicator and the shock. An extension of the target horizon favoring financial stability may contribute to relatively higher variation in inflation and output.Monetary policy, financial stability