Large Shocks and Small Changes in the Marriage Market for Famine Born Cohorts in China

Between 1958 and 1961, China experienced one of its worst famines in history. Birth rates plummeted during these years, but recovered immediately afterwards. The famine-born cohorts were relatively scarce in the marriage and labor markets. The famine also adversely affected the health of these cohorts. This paper decomposes these two effects on the marital outcomes of the famine-born and adjacent cohorts in the rural areas of two hard hit provinces, Sichuan and Anhui. Individuals born pre and post-famine, who were in surplus relative to their customary spouses, were able to marry. Using the Choo Siow model of marriage matching, the paper shows that the famine substantially reduced the marital attractiveness of the famine born cohort. The modest decline in educational attainment of the famine born cohort does not explain the change in spousal quality of that cohort. Thus, the famine-born cohort, who were relatively scarce compared with their customary spouses, did not have significant above average marriage rates.famine, marriage market, Choo Siow, China

Predictors of time famine among Finnish employees – Work, family or leisure?

The recent survey data indicates that the time famine is a common experience among employees, while the data of time use indicates increased leisure time. Similarly, there are different views on the causes of time famine. Firstly, in working life research time famine is usually explained by increasing requirements of work life. Secondly, in gender studies time famine is considered to be a product of family obligations. Thirdly, some authors interpret time famine as a phenomenon relating to the intensification of leisure. The aim of the study was to examine the extent and causes of time famine among Finnish employees. The analysis was based on the Finnish Use of Time data (1999–2000) and focused on 15-64-year old employees (n=4866). The first aim of the study was to compare different measures of time famine. The descriptive analysis indicated that time famine was overrepresented among women and those who were aged between 25-54 years, who were well-educated, and had children at home. The second aim was to examine predictors of time famine. The predictors of time famine were classified in three groups: work, family, and leisure factors. The logistic regression analyses were conducted separately for men and women. The analysis focused on two indicators of time famine representing different dimensions. Lack of time indicated general time famine and being busy during the diary day indicated more dayspecific situation. The two approaches to time famine – general and day-specific – raised different explanations. The general feeling of the lack of time was predicted all three predictor groups. Daily busyness was related strongly to work factors and only weakly to family obligations or leisure activities. Thus, time famine can be examined with different ways, which produce similar picture on the overrepresentation of it among women, well-educated and families with children. However, the predictors of time famine do vary depending on gender and how time famine is measured.Time famine, time pressure, time-use diaries

Large Demographic Shocks and Small Changes in the Marriage Market

Between 1958 and 1961, China experienced one of the worse famines in her history. Birth rates fell during these years and recovered immediately afterwards. The famine also adversely affected the health of these cohorts. This paper provides nonparametric estimates of the total effects of the famine on the marital behaviour of famine-affected cohorts in the rural areas of Sichuan and Anhui. These reduced from estimates incorporate general equilibrium and heterogeneous treatment effects, two important components of equilibrium marital behaviour. Next, the paper uses a structural model of the marriage market, the Choo-Siow model, to decompose observed marital outcomes into quantity and quality effects of the famine. The structural estimates show that the famine substantially reduced the marital attractiveness of the famine born cohort. The conclusion is that the small observed changes in marriage rates of the famine born cohorts are due to a substantial decline in their marital attractiveness. Controlling for changes in educational attainment does not change the conclusion.famine, marriage market, Choo Siow, China

Drought and famine relationships in Sudan: policy implications

Sudan is one of the few countries where famine still persists. Why? What are the determinants of famine in Sudan? What is the role of drought, especially in the context of economic policy failure and war? Who is affected by famine? What needs to be done to mitigate and prevent famine? These are some of the questions addressed in Drought and Famine Relationships in Sudan: Policy Implications, Research Report 88, by Tesfaye Teklu, Joachim von Braun, and Elsayed Zaki. The research is particularly concerned with quantitatively tracing the drought-production-consumption-nutrition linkages under famine conditions at the household level in order to identify effective means of alleviating and preventing famine.... while famine is often strongly linked to drought, this research finds that even under the severe economic constraints of Sudan, suitable government planning and action can forestall that linkage.Famines Sudan., Droughts Sudan., Food relief Government policy Sudan., Drought relief Government policy Sudan.,

Large Demographic Shocks and Small Changes in the Marriage Market

This paper provides non-parametric estimates of the total effects of famine in China on marital behavior of famine affected cohorts in rural areas of Sichuan and Anhui. The reduced form estimates incorporate general equilibrium and heterogeneous treatment effects, two important components of equilibrium marital behavior. Next the paper uses a structural model of the marriage market to decomposed observed marital outcomes into quantity and quality effects. The structural estimates show that the famine reduced the marital attractiveness of the famine-born cohort. The conclusion is that the small observed changes in marriage rates of the famine born cohort are due to a significant decline in marital attractiveness.marriage market, famine

Reporting the Irish Famine in America: Images of Suffering Ireland in the American Press, 1845-1848

This chapter is a study of American newspaper reporting on the Great Irish Famine. The study examines six master narratives that constrained the image of Ireland and the Irish people presented to American readers. Those narrative constraints predisposed Americans to respond with hostility when Irish Famine refugees began to arrive in the United States

Long-term Effects of Famine on Life Expectancy: A Re-analysis of the Great Finnish Famine of 1866-1868

Famines are extreme cases of environmental stress, and have been used by a series of studies to explore the long-term consequences of the fetal or childhood environment. Results are inconsistent and do not support negative long-term effects on mortality. The authors test the hypothesis that selection during famine changes the frailty distributions of cohorts and may hide negative long-term effects. They use death counts from age 60+ from the Human Mortality Data Base for the birth cohorts 1850-1854, 1855-1859, 1860-1865, 1866-1868, 1869-1874, 1875-1879, 1880-1884 and 1885-1889 to explore the effect of being born during the Great Finnish Famine 1866-1868. Swedish cohorts without famine exposure are analysed as a control group. Cohorts born in Finland during the Great Finnish Famine are highly heterogeneous in their distribution of deaths after age 60. By contrast, cohorts born in the years immediately after the famine are particularly homogeneous. Accounting for these differences results into a lower remaining life expectancy at age 60 for cohorts born during the famine. Statistically, long-term effects of famine on mortality become only visible when changes in the frailty distribution of cohorts are explicitly considered.old-age mortality, selection, debilitation, early life circumstances

Agricultural Policy, Crop Failure and the 'Ruriganiza' Famine (1989) in Southern Rwanda: a Prelude to Genocide ?

The paper analyses the agricultural policy of the Habyarimana regime, which ruled Rwanda from 1973 to 1994. Econometric analysis of rural household survey data is used to investigate the effects of the 1989 crop failure in southern Rwanda on children’s health status. The paper shows that children in southern Rwanda are chronically malnourished, more then in other prefectures of Rwanda. It is shown that the 1989 crop failure developed into famine and the causes of this development are investigated. It turns out that the Habyarimana regime did not respond to early warnings of famine conditions and pretend it did not know what was going on. The relationship between this non-response to famine, agricultural policy in general and the 1994 genocide is demonstrated.agriculture, famine, survey research, Rwanda

Famine in North Korea Redux?

In the 1990s, 600,000 to 1 million North Koreans, or about 3 to 5 percent of the precrisis population, perished in one of the worst famines of the 20th century.North Korea is once again poised on the brink of famine. Although the renewed provision of aid is likely to avert a disaster on the scale of the 1990s, hunger-related deaths are already occurring and a dynamic has been set in motion that will carry the crisis into 2009. North Korea is a complex humanitarian emergency characterized by highly imperfect information. This paper triangulates quantity and price evidence with direct observation to assess food insecurity in North Korea and its causes. We critique the widely cited UN figures and present original data on grain quantities and prices. These data demonstrate that for the first time since the 1990s famine, the aggregate grain balance has gone into deficit. Prices have also risen steeply. The reemergence of pathologies from the famine era is documented through direct observation. Although exogenous shocks have played a role, foreign and domestic policy choices have been key.North Korea, famine

Famines Past, Famine’s Future

Famine, like poverty, has always been with us. No region and no century has been immune. Its scars—economic, psychological, and political—can long outlast its immediate impact on mortality and health. Famines are a hallmark of economic backwardness, yet the twentieth century suffered some of the most devastating ever recorded. That century also saw shifts in both the causes and symptoms of famine. This new century's famines have been 'small' by historical standards, and the threat of major ones seemingly confined to ever-smaller pockets of the globe. Are these shifts a sign of hope for the future?Famine, Human Agency