Random sets and exact confidence regions

An important problem in statistics is the construction of confidence regions for unknown parameters. In most cases, asymptotic distribution theory is used to construct confidence regions, so any coverage probability claims only hold approximately, for large samples. This paper describes a new approach, using random sets, which allows users to construct exact confidence regions without appeal to asymptotic theory. In particular, if the user-specified random set satisfies a certain validity property, confidence regions obtained by thresholding the induced data-dependent plausibility function are shown to have the desired coverage probability.Comment: 14 pages, 2 figure

BPRS: Belief Propagation Based Iterative Recommender System

In this paper we introduce the first application of the Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm in the design of recommender systems. We formulate the recommendation problem as an inference problem and aim to compute the marginal probability distributions of the variables which represent the ratings to be predicted. However, computing these marginal probability functions is computationally prohibitive for large-scale systems. Therefore, we utilize the BP algorithm to efficiently compute these functions. Recommendations for each active user are then iteratively computed by probabilistic message passing. As opposed to the previous recommender algorithms, BPRS does not require solving the recommendation problem for all the users if it wishes to update the recommendations for only a single active. Further, BPRS computes the recommendations for each user with linear complexity and without requiring a training period. Via computer simulations (using the 100K MovieLens dataset), we verify that BPRS iteratively reduces the error in the predicted ratings of the users until it converges. Finally, we confirm that BPRS is comparable to the state of art methods such as Correlation-based neighborhood model (CorNgbr) and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) in terms of rating and precision accuracy. Therefore, we believe that the BP-based recommendation algorithm is a new promising approach which offers a significant advantage on scalability while providing competitive accuracy for the recommender systems