Emergence of Foresight Activities in Swedish Government Authorities

This paper discusses and aims to explain the emergence of foresight activities in Swedish government authorities, including environmental scanning and analysis, futures studies and other activities trying to detect and analyse change in the surroundings of the organisation. To explain the growing importance of foresight activities we must consider the increasing administrative authority given to public authorities in recent years, and the development of information technology that has given new technological opportunities to conduct foresight. Furthermore, structural (and institutional) changes - such as globalisation and the development of the EU - created a need and incentives for more foresight activities.Foresight; Futures studies; Swedish government authorities; Public authorities; Information; Information society; Globalisation; Internationalisation; Technological change; EU

Benefits of Computer Based Content Analysis to Foresight

Purpose of the article: The present manuscript summarizes benefits of the use of computer-based content analysis in a generation phase of foresight initiatives. Possible advantages, disadvantages and limitations of the content analysis for the foresight projects are discussed as well. Methodology/methods: In order to specify the benefits and identify the limitations of the content analysis within the foresight, results of the generation phase of a particular foresight project performed without and subsequently with the use of computer based content analysis tool were compared by two proposed measurements. Scientific aim: The generation phase of the foresight is the most demanding part in terms of analysis duration, costs and resources due to a significant amount of reviewed text. In addition, the conclusions of the foresight evaluation are dependent on personal views and perceptions of the foresight analysts as the evaluation is based merely on reading. The content analysis may partially or even fully replace the reading and provide an important benchmark. Findings: The use of computer based content analysis tool significantly reduced time to conduct the foresight generation phase. The content analysis tool showed very similar results as compared to the evaluation performed by the standard reading. Only ten % of results were not revealed by the use of content analysis tool. On the other hand, several new topics were identified by means of content analysis tool that were missed by the reading. Conclusions: The results of two measurements should be subjected to further testing within more foresight projects to validate them. The computer based content analysis tool provides valuable benchmark to the foresight analysts and partially substitute the reading. However, a complete replacement of the reading is not recommended, as deep understanding to weak signals interpretation is essential for the foresight

Delphi Austria - An Example of Tailoring Foresight to the Needs of a Small Country

The world-wide diffusion and recognition of Technology Foresight suggests that it is of value for quite diverse types of economies and societies. Its merit as an important tool of strategic intelligence for policy-making also in small countries and transition economies depends on a careful tailoring to specific needs. Practice of Foresight is rather diverse also among small countries, but approaches tend to be more selective in scope, have more specific goals, and put greater emphasis on demand aspects than in bigger countries. Austria’s first systematic Foresight programme (completed in 1998) is an example of an innovative approach adapted to the needs of a small country. This contribution shows how Delphi Austria was tailored to a small economy which had undergone a successful catch-up process and how the Foresight process as well as its results have been utilised.Technology Foresight, Delphi method, small country, Austria, innovation, technology policy, implementation

Strategic Foresight in multinational enterprises – a case study on the Deutsche Telekom Laboratories

Strategic Foresight activities enable companies to use weak signals to identify opportunities and threats. Research on Strategic Foresight proposes different methods, discusses their implementation and gives recommendations on how to link Strategic Foresight with other functions in an organization. Based on a literature review, we define a generic framework for the management of Strategic Foresight activities on the strategic, tactical and operational level and identify and discuss actors, methods and systems of Strategic Foresight. Building on an in-depth case study of the Deutsche Telekom Laboratories we shed light on the implementation of Strategic Foresight activities. In the discussion we focus on the interaction of methods from Consumer Foresight and Technology Intelligence. Taking an example project, we explore how Strategic Foresight is used on the operational level of innovation management. We conclude that Strategic Foresight can successfully contribute to coping with uncertainty and complexity and can feed the front-end of innovation from the market (customer needs) and technology (realization opportunities) perspective.strategic foresight; consumer foresight; technology foresight; technology intelligence; market foresight; trend analysis; future studies; future analysis; telecommunication industry

Why foresight? The impact of resource consumption and technology on the ability to foresee the future

In this article we attempt at providing evolution of the resource consumption (RC) which meets the needs of a modern society. In analyzing the impact of resources consumption and technologies to meets the needs, over the possibility of anticipating the future is necessary to establish patterns based on past information. On the those information, we can say that RC evolution between the ? and ? moments follows a logistic curve. Based on the graphic representation of the RC evolution, we can identify four different phases, with specific characteristics. Each phase will be the basis for building a pattern of RC evolution. For each of the four patterns we analytically present the risks of performing an exercise of future’s anticipation. The analysis indicates that currently, the forecasts lose representativeness and becomes less important compared with the foresight. The foresight, through its features, answers much better the needs to anticipate the future evolution of the society, compared to the forecast. Foresight exercises are offensive compared to the defensive nature of forecast exercises. The foresight exercise specialist is not just a spectator to the evolution of the phenomenon, as in the forecast’s case, but is involved in making and implementing decisions. Foresight exercises, although not able to generate accurate projections of the future, will help to correlate the current technologies with the future needs of societyresource consumption, technology, foresight, possibility of anticipating the future

Theory and practice in the field of foresight

Purpose – The paper aims to explore the gap between theory and practice in foresight and to give some suggestions on how to reduce it. Design/methodology/approach – Analysis of practical foresight activities and suggestions are based on a literature review, the author's own research and practice in the field of foresight and futures studies, and her participation in the work of a European project (COST A22). Findings – Two different types of practical foresight activities have developed. One of them, the practice of foresight of critical futures studies (FCFS) is an application of a theory of futures studies. The other, termed here as praxis foresight (PF), has no theoretical basis and responds directly to practical needs. At present a gap can be perceived between theory and practice. PF distinguishes itself from the practice and theory of FCFS and narrows the construction space of futures. Neither FCFS nor PF deals with content issues of the outer world. Reducing the gap depends on renewal of joint discourses and research about experience of different practical foresight activities and manageability of complex dynamics in foresight. Production and feedback of self-reflective and reflective foresight knowledge could improve theory and practice. Originality/value – Contemporary practical foresight activities are analysed and suggestions to reduce the gap are developed in the context of the linkage between theory and practice. This paper is thought provoking for futurists, foresight managers and university researchers

Constructing futures: a social constructionist perspective on foresight methodology

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the relationship between a particular epistemological perspective and foresight methodology. We draw on a body of social theory concerned with the way that meaning is produced and assimilated by society; specifically, the social construction of knowledge, which is distinguished from its nearneighbour constructivism by its focus on inter-subjectivity. We show that social constructionism, at least in its weak form, seems to be implicit in many epistemological assumptions underlying futures studies. We identify a range of distinctive methodological features in foresight studies, such as time, descriptions of difference, participation and values, and examine these from a social constructionist perspective. It appears that social constructionism is highly resonant with the way in which knowledge of the future is produced and used. A social constructionism perspective enables a methodological reflection on how, with what legitimacy, and to what social good, knowledge is produced. Foresight that produces symbols without inter-subjective meaning neither anticipates, nor produces futures. Our conclusion is that foresight is both a social construction, and a mechanism for social construction. Methodologically, foresight projects should acknowledge the socially constructed nature of their process and outcomes as this will lead to greater rigour and legitimacy

FISCAL FORESIGHT AND INFORMATION FLOWS

Fiscal foresight---the phenomenon that legislative and implementation lags ensure that private agents receive clear signals about the tax rates they face in the future---is intrinsic to the tax policy process. This paper develops an analytical framework to study the econometric implications of fiscal foresight. Simple theoretical examples show that foresight produces equilibrium time series with nonfundamental representations, which misalign the agents' and the econometrician's information sets. Economically meaningful shocks to taxes, therefore, cannot generally be extracted from statistical innovations in conventional ways. Econometric analyses that fail to align agents' and the econometrician's information sets can produce distorted inferences about the effects of tax policies. The paper documents the sensitivity of econometric inferences of tax effects to details about how tax information flows into the economy. We show that alternative assumptions about the information flows that give rise to fiscal foresight can reconcile the diverse empirical findings in the literature on anticipated tax changes.