On Elo based prediction models for the FIFA Worldcup 2018

We propose an approach for the analysis and prediction of a football championship. It is based on Poisson regression models that include the Elo points of the teams as covariates and incorporates differences of team-specific effects. These models for the prediction of the FIFA World Cup 2018 are fitted on all football games on neutral ground of the participating teams since 2010. Based on the model estimates for single matches Monte-Carlo simulations are used to estimate probabilities for reaching the different stages in the FIFA World Cup 2018 for all teams. We propose two score functions for ordinal random variables that serve together with the rank probability score for the validation of our models with the results of the FIFA World Cups 2010 and 2014. All models favor Germany as the new FIFA World Champion. All possible courses of the tournament and their probabilities are visualized using a single Sankey diagram.Comment: 22 pages, 7 figure

The global event? The media, football and the FIFA World Cup

An examination of the FIFA World Cup as media mega event and the role played by television in this process

Football and the Cyprus conflict

This essay looks at football's role in the Cyprus conflict since Turkish Cypriot clubs broke away from the Cyprus Football Association in 1955. Studying the history of football in the context of the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots after the island's invasion by Turkey in 1974, and subsequent declaration of independence in 1983, it examines football's role in trying to establish the idea of Turkish Cyprus as a nation, including the launching of a national team and the hosting of a tournament for fellow pariah national teams. The essay looks into the impact of such lobbying as to how FIFA eventually intervened to host a first official meeting between the Greek and Turkish Cypriot associations and how football has been manipulated for political ends. This research was presented as a paper at the Play The Game conference from October 28 to November 2 2007. A written paper was published in the journal Soccer and Society in 2010

Is football an indicator of development at the international level? (WP)

[spa] El objetivo de este trabajo es examinar si el fútbol puede ser considerado como un indicador de desarrollo a nivel internacional. Se ha diseñado un modelo econométrico empírico con el fin de analizar el desarrollo en términos de niveles de PIB per cápita y del crecimiento del PIB. Se utiliza información transversal y temporal. Los resultados sugieren que la clasificación FIFA de las selecciones nacionales se puede utilizar para complementar nuestra comprensión del desarrollo multidimensional en aquellos países donde la disponibilidad de la información no es tan buena como los investigadores quisieran.[eng] The aim of this paper is to examine whether football can be considered an indicator of development at the international level. An empirical econometric model is designed in order to analyse development in terms of both levels of GDP per capita and GDP growth. Cross-sectional and time series information is used. The results suggest that FIFA rankings of national teams can be used to complement our understanding of multidimensional development in those countries where the availability of information is not as good as researchers would like

The Economic Impacts of Government Financing of the 2010 FIFA World Cup

This paper presents estimates of the economic impacts of financing the hosting of the 2010 FIFA World Cup by the government of South Africa. Ex ante analysis using a fiscal social accounting matrix model indicates that hosting of the event impacts positively on gross domestic product and imports. The positive impact on imports will, inter alia, lead to deterioration in the current account deficit for a given amount of exports. Owners of capital benefit more than owners of labour as a result of 2010 FIFA World Cup expenditures by the government. Middle-income Black households are the largest winners, followed by high-income Whites. Asians experience the least gain. These outcomes are explained by the initial factor endowments and their sectoral allocation in the social accounting matrix. Government revenue goes up in response to the demand injection, and a large proportion of it accrues to central government and local government respectively.2010 FIFA World Cup, Economic Impact, SAM Modelling, Legacy, South Africa

From Sochi - 2014 to FIFA - 2018: a Fading Sovereignty?

In this article, we uncover the dynamics and the evolution of Russian discourses of sovereignty before and after the Sochi 2014 Olympic Games using some elements of Foucauldian methodology and constructivist reading of sovereignty as an institution. We argue that there is a discrepancy between the rhetoric of sovereign power and the institutional practices in which it is embedded. It leads us to theorize that sovereignty discourses are contextual, unstable and constitutively shaped by commitments taken as key elements of international socialization. In the case of Russia, these discourses can be divided into three groups: pre-Sochi, post-Sochi and pre-World 2018 Cup discursive formations. As we venture to demonstrate, Putin's model of sovereignty is in crisis, yet it has support, both domestic and international. In the near future, sport is likely to remain one of those spheres of high visibility where the ideology of surviving under sanctions and counter-attacking the West will be reified

Correspondence between the Clean Clothes Campaign and the FIFA

CCC_Corespondence_between_the_Clean_Clothes_Campaign_and_the_FIFA.pdf: 39 downloads, before Oct. 1, 2020

Gamification of sports media coverage: an infotainment approach to Olympics and Football World Cups

Sports media coverage of mega-events is partly oriented to gamification, the use of game elements and game design techniques in non-gaming contexts. This infotainment approach to events has been developed by media outlets as an original and effective way to capture wider audience attention and to place events in context before a competition starts. This article examines 28 gamified sports pieces developed by media outlets from seven countries during the last two Olympics (2016 Summer Olympics in Rio and 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang) and Football World Cups (2014 in Brazil and 2018 in Russia). This sample comprises two categories following Ferrer-Conill (2015): “gamified pieces” (game like elements that are part of a bigger interactive feature) and “newsgames” (more sophisticated pieces often included in complex graphics or multimedia content). The results show that, despite its entertaining formula, gamification serves mainly informational purposes and adds value to sports coverage. Especially in the Summer and Winter Olympics, gamified sports pieces tend to be explanatory and data-driven in order to inform the audience about nonmainstream sports