How Extreme Events in China Would Be Affected by Global Warming-Insights From a Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Ensemble

In recent years, concurrent climate extreme conditions (i.e., hot-dry, cold-dry, hot-wet, and cold-wet) have led to various unprecedented natural disasters (e.g., floods, landslide, wildfire, droughts, etc.), causing significant damages to human societies and ecosystems. This is especially true for China where many unprecedented natural disasters have been reported due to the recent warming in local climate. In this paper, we focus on the issue of ultra-extreme events (1‰ threshold) and address how future global warming would affect the climate extreme conditions in China. Specifically, to reduce the uncertainties from models, we use a downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP6 ensemble under two continuously-warming scenarios to evaluate the impact of global warming on ultra-extreme events over China. The results show that, under both SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, extreme hot conditions would become dominant in most regions of China and some regions are likely to experience over 50 extreme hot days at future warming levels. The frequency of extreme cold events is projected to be small. More frequent extreme hot-wet events with concurrence in the same month and year would be expected for China under the continuously-warming scenarios. This is particularly obvious for the west where more than 6 hot-wet months are likely to take place under future warming scenarios. This may imply that more extreme heat waves and flooding events would coincide in the same month or year for China in the future. For univariate ultra-extreme events, both extreme hot events and extreme wet events would drop by above 25% from 2.0°C to 1.5°C global warming level, particularly under the SSP245 scenario. When the global mean temperature is limited to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, the avoided impacts of hot-wet and cold-wet extremes concurring in the same month will be larger than those of dry-related compound extremes. Overall, the results suggest that slowing down global warming can reduce the frequency of concurrent climate extreme conditions in China, highlighting the importance of immediate action toward carbon emission reduction

Geoarchaeological evidence of the AD 1642 Yellow River flood that destroyed Kaifeng, a former capital of dynastic China

Rising global temperatures will increase the number of extreme weather events, creating new challenges for cities around the world. Archaeological research on the destruction and subsequent reoccupation of ancient cities has the potential to reveal geological and social dynamics that have historically contributed to making urban settings resilient to these extreme weather events. Using a combination of archaeological and geological methods, we examine how extreme flood events at Kaifeng, a former capital of dynastic China, have shaped the city’s urban resilience. Specifically, we focus on an extreme Yellow River flood event in AD 1642 that historical records suggest killed around 300,000 people living in Kaifeng. Our recent archaeological excavations have discovered compelling geological and archaeological evidence that corroborates these documents, revealing that the AD 1642 Yellow River flood destroyed Kaifeng’s inner city, entombing the city and its inhabitants within meters of silt and clay. We argue that the AD 1642 flood was extraordinarily catastrophic because Kaifeng’s city walls only partly collapsed, entrapping most of the flood waters within the city. Both the geology of the Yellow River floods as well as the socio-political context of Kaifeng shaped the city’s resilience to extreme flood events

Responses of seasonal indicators to extreme droughts in southwest China

Significant impact of extreme droughts on human society and ecosystem has occurred in many places of the world, for example, Southwest China (SWC). Considerable research concentrated on analyzing causes and effects of droughts in SWC, but few studies have examined seasonal indicators, such as variations of surface water and vegetation phenology. With the ongoing satellite missions, more and more earth observation data become available to environmental studies. Exploring the responses of seasonal indicators from satellite data to drought is helpful for the future drought forecast and management. This study analyzed the seasonal responses of surface water and vegetation phenology to drought in SWC using the multi-source data including Seasonal Water Area (SWA), Permanent Water Area (PWA), Start of Season (SOS), End of Season (EOS), Length of Season (LOS), precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, evapotranspiration, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and data from water conservancy construction. The results showed that SWA and LOS effectively revealed the development and recovery of droughts. There were two obvious drought periods from 2000 to 2017. In the first period (from August 2003 to June 2007), SWA decreased by 11.81% and LOS shortened by 5 days. They reduced by 21.04% and 9 days respectively in the second period (from September 2009 to June 2014), which indicated that there are more severe droughts in the second period. The SOS during two drought periods delayed by 3~6 days in spring, while the EOS advanced 1~3 days in autumn. All of PDSI, SWA and LOS could reflect the period of droughts in SWC, but the LOS and PDSI were very sensitive to the meteorological events, such as precipitation and temperature, while the SWA performed a more stable reaction to drought and could be a good indicator for the drought periodicity. This made it possible for using SWA in drought forecast because of the strong correlation between SWA and drought. Our results improved the understanding of seasonal responses to extreme droughts in SWC, which will be helpful to the drought monitoring and mitigation for different seasons in this ecologically fragile region

Working Paper 126 - China’s Trade and FDI in Africa

China’s growth and its capacity to move in thirty years from under-development and extreme poverty to an emerging global power and one of the largest exporter of manufactured goods has attracted the attention of many developing countries. China has served as a development model for Africa and an alternative source of trade and finance from Africa’s traditional development partners. The impact of China on African economies has been diverse, depending in part on the sectoral composition of each country’s production. Overall, China’s increased engagement with Africa could generate important gains for African economies. This paper analyzes the different impacts of China on Africa, quantifies the advantages and disadvantages, and policy suggestions necessary to maximize the development impact of China. One overriding consideration is that reaping the full benefits from Chinese trade and investment will require substantial improvements in governance in African economies.

How Well Does the ERA5 Reanalysis Capture the Extreme Climate Events Over China? Part II: Extreme Temperature

The fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) is the latest reanalysis product. However, the reliability of ERA5 to capture extreme temperatures is still unclear over China. Hence, based on conventional meteorological station data, a new criterion (DISO) was used to validate the ERA5 capturing extreme temperature indices derived from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) across the six subregions of China on different timescales. The conclusions are as follows: the original daily temperatures (mean temperature, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature) can be well reproduced by ERA5 reanalysis over China. ERA5 tends to exhibit more misdetection for the duration of extreme temperature events than extreme temperature intensity and frequency. In addition, ERA5 performed best in the summer and worst in the winter, respectively. The trend of absolute indices (e.g., TXx and TNx), percentile-based indices (e.g., TX90p, TX10p, TN90p, and TN10p), and duration indices (e.g., WSDI, CSDI, and GSL) can be captured by ERA5, but ERA5 failed to capture the tendency of the diurnal temperature range (DTR) over China. Spatially, ERA5 performs well in southeastern China. However, it remains challenging to accurately recreate the extreme temperature events in the Tibetan Plateau. The elevation difference between the station and ERA5 grid point contributes to the main bias of reanalysis temperatures. The accuracy of ERA5 decreases with the increase in elevation discrepancy

How Well Does the ERA5 Reanalysis Capture the Extreme Climate Events Over China? Part I: Extreme Precipitation

ERA5 is the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, with high spatiotemporal resolution and global coverage. However, the reliability of ERA5 for simulating extreme precipitation events is still unclear over China. In this study, 12 extreme precipitation indices and a comprehensive quantitative distance between indices of simulation and observation were used to evaluate ERA5 precipitation from three fundamental aspects: intensity, frequency, and duration. The geomorphological regionalization method was used to divide the subregions of China. The results showed that the ability of ERA5 to simulate annual total precipitation was better than that of daily precipitation. For the intensity indices, ERA5 performs well for simulating the PRCPTOT (annual total wet days precipitation) over China. ERA5 performs better on RX5day (max 5-days precipitation amount) and R95p (very wet days), especially in eastern China, than on RX1day (max 1-day precipitation amount) and R99p (extremely wet days). For the frequency indices, the ability of the ERA5 simulation increased as the amount of precipitation increased, except for northwestern China. However, the ability of ERA5 to simulate R50 mm (number of extreme heavy precipitation days) decreased. For the duration indices, ERA5 was better at simulating drought events than wet events in eastern China. Our results highlight the need for ERA5 to enhance the simulation of trend changes in extreme precipitation events

Colour Reconnection at LEPII

The preliminary results on the search of colour reconnection effects (CR) from the four experiments at LEP, Aleph, Delphi, L3 and Opal, are reviewed. Extreme models are excluded by studies of standard variables, and on going studies of a method first suggested by L3, the particle flow method, are yet inconclusive.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures (1 in eps, 5 in ps) talk given at XXXI International Symposium on Multiparticle Dynamics, Sep. 1-7, 2001, Datong China URL http://ismd31.ccnu.edu.cn

Water use efficiency of China\u27s terrestrial ecosystems and responses to drought

Water use efficiency (WUE) measures the trade-off between carbon gain and water loss of terrestrial ecosystems, and better understanding its dynamics and controlling factors is essential for predicting ecosystem responses to climate change. We assessed the magnitude, spatial patterns, and trends of WUE of China’s terrestrial ecosystems and its responses to drought using a process-based ecosystem model. During the period from 2000 to 2011, the national average annual WUE (net primary productivity (NPP)/evapotranspiration (ET)) of China was 0.79 g C kg−1 H2O. Annual WUE decreased in the southern regions because of the decrease in NPP and the increase in ET and increased in most northern regions mainly because of the increase in NPP. Droughts usually increased annual WUE in Northeast China and central Inner Mongolia but decreased annual WUE in central China. “Turning-points” were observed for southern China where moderate and extreme droughts reduced annual WUE and severe drought slightly increased annual WUE. The cumulative lagged effect of drought on monthly WUE varied by region. Our findings have implications for ecosystem management and climate policy making. WUE is expected to continue to change under future climate change particularly as drought is projected to increase in both frequency and severity