Volatility Prediction using Financial Disclosures Sentiments with Word Embedding-based IR Models

Volatility prediction--an essential concept in financial markets--has recently been addressed using sentiment analysis methods. We investigate the sentiment of annual disclosures of companies in stock markets to forecast volatility. We specifically explore the use of recent Information Retrieval (IR) term weighting models that are effectively extended by related terms using word embeddings. In parallel to textual information, factual market data have been widely used as the mainstream approach to forecast market risk. We therefore study different fusion methods to combine text and market data resources. Our word embedding-based approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods. In addition, we investigate the characteristics of the reports of the companies in different financial sectors

Efficient Correlated Topic Modeling with Topic Embedding

Correlated topic modeling has been limited to small model and problem sizes due to their high computational cost and poor scaling. In this paper, we propose a new model which learns compact topic embeddings and captures topic correlations through the closeness between the topic vectors. Our method enables efficient inference in the low-dimensional embedding space, reducing previous cubic or quadratic time complexity to linear w.r.t the topic size. We further speedup variational inference with a fast sampler to exploit sparsity of topic occurrence. Extensive experiments show that our approach is capable of handling model and data scales which are several orders of magnitude larger than existing correlation results, without sacrificing modeling quality by providing competitive or superior performance in document classification and retrieval.Comment: KDD 2017 oral. The first two authors contributed equall