Semiparametrically Efficient Inference Based on Signs and Ranks for Median Restricted Models

Since the pioneering work of Koenker and Bassett (1978), econometric models involving median and quantile rather than the classical mean or conditional mean concepts have attracted much interest.Contrary to the traditional models where the noise is assumed to have mean zero, median-restricted models enjoy a rich group-invariance structure.In this paper, we exploit this invariance structure in order to obtain semiparametrically efficient inference procedures for these models.These procedures are based on residual signs and ranks, and therefore insensitive to possible misspecification of the underlying innovation density, yet semiparametrically efficient at correctly specified densities.This latter combination is a definite advantage of these procedures over classical quasi-likelihood methods.The techniques we propose can be applied, without additional technical difficulties, to both cross-sectional and time-series models.They do not require any explicit tangent space calculation nor any projections on these.models;regression analysis;econometrics

Monte Carlo likelihood inference for missing data models

We describe a Monte Carlo method to approximate the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE), when there are missing data and the observed data likelihood is not available in closed form. This method uses simulated missing data that are independent and identically distributed and independent of the observed data. Our Monte Carlo approximation to the MLE is a consistent and asymptotically normal estimate of the minimizer $\theta^*$ of the Kullback--Leibler information, as both Monte Carlo and observed data sample sizes go to infinity simultaneously. Plug-in estimates of the asymptotic variance are provided for constructing confidence regions for $\theta^*$. We give Logit--Normal generalized linear mixed model examples, calculated using an R package.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053606000001389 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Unit roots in moving averages beyond first order

The asymptotic theory of various estimators based on Gaussian likelihood has been developed for the unit root and near unit root cases of a first-order moving average model. Previous studies of the MA(1) unit root problem rely on the special autocovariance structure of the MA(1) process, in which case, the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the covariance matrix of the data vector have known analytical forms. In this paper, we take a different approach to first consider the joint likelihood by including an augmented initial value as a parameter and then recover the exact likelihood by integrating out the initial value. This approach by-passes the difficulty of computing an explicit decomposition of the covariance matrix and can be used to study unit root behavior in moving averages beyond first order. The asymptotics of the generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) statistic for testing unit roots are also studied. The GLR test has operating characteristics that are competitive with the locally best invariant unbiased (LBIU) test of Tanaka for some local alternatives and dominates for all other alternatives.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOS935 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

On the power of conditional independence testing under model-X

For testing conditional independence (CI) of a response Y and a predictor X given covariates Z, the recently introduced model-X (MX) framework has been the subject of active methodological research, especially in the context of MX knockoffs and their successful application to genome-wide association studies. In this paper, we study the power of MX CI tests, yielding quantitative explanations for empirically observed phenomena and novel insights to guide the design of MX methodology. We show that any valid MX CI test must also be valid conditionally on Y and Z; this conditioning allows us to reformulate the problem as testing a point null hypothesis involving the conditional distribution of X. The Neyman-Pearson lemma then implies that the conditional randomization test (CRT) based on a likelihood statistic is the most powerful MX CI test against a point alternative. We also obtain a related optimality result for MX knockoffs. Switching to an asymptotic framework with arbitrarily growing covariate dimension, we derive an expression for the limiting power of the CRT against local semiparametric alternatives in terms of the prediction error of the machine learning algorithm on which its test statistic is based. Finally, we exhibit a resampling-free test with uniform asymptotic Type-I error control under the assumption that only the first two moments of X given Z are known, a significant relaxation of the MX assumption

Semiparametrically efficient rank-based inference for shape I. optimal rank-based tests for sphericity

We propose a class of rank-based procedures for testing that the shape matrix $\mathbf{V}$ of an elliptical distribution (with unspecified center of symmetry, scale and radial density) has some fixed value ${\mathbf{V}}_0$; this includes, for ${\mathbf{V}}_0={\mathbf{I}}_k$, the problem of testing for sphericity as an important particular case. The proposed tests are invariant under translations, monotone radial transformations, rotations and reflections with respect to the estimated center of symmetry. They are valid without any moment assumption. For adequately chosen scores, they are locally asymptotically maximin (in the Le Cam sense) at given radial densities. They are strictly distribution-free when the center of symmetry is specified, and asymptotically so when it must be estimated. The multivariate ranks used throughout are those of the distances--in the metric associated with the null value ${\mathbf{V}}_0$ of the shape matrix--between the observations and the (estimated) center of the distribution. Local powers (against elliptical alternatives) and asymptotic relative efficiencies (AREs) are derived with respect to the adjusted Mauchly test (a modified version of the Gaussian likelihood ratio procedure proposed by Muirhead and Waternaux [Biometrika 67 (1980) 31--43]) or, equivalently, with respect to (an extension of) the test for sphericity introduced by John [Biometrika 58 (1971) 169--174]. For Gaussian scores, these AREs are uniformly larger than one, irrespective of the actual radial density. Necessary and/or sufficient conditions for consistency under nonlocal, possibly nonelliptical alternatives are given. Finite sample performances are investigated via a Monte Carlo study.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053606000000731 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org