DEVELOPMENT OF A MARKET BENCHMARK PRICE FOR AGMAS PERFORMANCE EVALUATIONS

The purpose of this research report is to identify the appropriate market benchmark price to use to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services that are included in the annual AgMAS pricing performance evaluations. Five desirable properties of market benchmark prices are identified. Three potential specifications of the market benchmark price are considered: the average price received by Illinois farmers, the harvest cash price, and the average cash price over a two-year crop marketing window. The average cash price meets all of the desired properties, except that it would not be easily implementable by producers. It can be shown, though, that the price realized via a more manageable strategy of "spreading" sales during the marketing window very closely approximates the average cash price. Therefore, it is determined that the average cash price meets all five selection criteria, and is the most appropriate market benchmark to be used in evaluating the pricing performance of market advisory services.advisory services, evaluating the pricing performance, market benchmark price, C8, C0, D4, D8, L1, M3, Q0, Z0, Marketing,

BigDataBench: a Big Data Benchmark Suite from Internet Services

As architecture, systems, and data management communities pay greater attention to innovative big data systems and architectures, the pressure of benchmarking and evaluating these systems rises. Considering the broad use of big data systems, big data benchmarks must include diversity of data and workloads. Most of the state-of-the-art big data benchmarking efforts target evaluating specific types of applications or system software stacks, and hence they are not qualified for serving the purposes mentioned above. This paper presents our joint research efforts on this issue with several industrial partners. Our big data benchmark suite BigDataBench not only covers broad application scenarios, but also includes diverse and representative data sets. BigDataBench is publicly available from http://prof.ict.ac.cn/BigDataBench . Also, we comprehensively characterize 19 big data workloads included in BigDataBench with varying data inputs. On a typical state-of-practice processor, Intel Xeon E5645, we have the following observations: First, in comparison with the traditional benchmarks: including PARSEC, HPCC, and SPECCPU, big data applications have very low operation intensity; Second, the volume of data input has non-negligible impact on micro-architecture characteristics, which may impose challenges for simulation-based big data architecture research; Last but not least, corroborating the observations in CloudSuite and DCBench (which use smaller data inputs), we find that the numbers of L1 instruction cache misses per 1000 instructions of the big data applications are higher than in the traditional benchmarks; also, we find that L3 caches are effective for the big data applications, corroborating the observation in DCBench.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, The 20th IEEE International Symposium On High Performance Computer Architecture (HPCA-2014), February 15-19, 2014, Orlando, Florida, US

Using Battery Storage for Peak Shaving and Frequency Regulation: Joint Optimization for Superlinear Gains

We consider using a battery storage system simultaneously for peak shaving and frequency regulation through a joint optimization framework which captures battery degradation, operational constraints and uncertainties in customer load and regulation signals. Under this framework, using real data we show the electricity bill of users can be reduced by up to 15\%. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the saving from joint optimization is often larger than the sum of the optimal savings when the battery is used for the two individual applications. A simple threshold real-time algorithm is proposed and achieves this super-linear gain. Compared to prior works that focused on using battery storage systems for single applications, our results suggest that batteries can achieve much larger economic benefits than previously thought if they jointly provide multiple services.Comment: To Appear in IEEE Transaction on Power System

The state of macroeconomic forecasting

Macroeconomic forecasts are used extensively in industry and government The historical accuracy of US and UK forecasts are examined in the light of different approaches to evaluating macro forecasts. Issues discussed include the comparative accuracy of macroeconometric models compared to their time series alternatives, whether the forecasting record has improved over time, the rationality of macroeconomic forecasts and how a forecasting service should be chosen. The role of judgement in producing the forecasts is also considered where the evidence unequivocally favors such interventions. Finally the use of macroeconomic forecasts and their effectiveness is discussed. The conclusion drawn is that researchers have paid too little attention to the issue of improving the forecasting accuracy record. Areas where improvements would be particularly valuable are highlighted.

Management control in the transfer pricing tax compliant multinational enterprise

This paper studies the impact of transfer pricing tax compliance on management control system (MCS) design and use within one multinational enterprise (MNE) which employed the same transfer prices for tax compliance and internal management purposes. Our analysis shows immediate effects of tax compliance on the design of organising controls with subsequent effects on planning, evaluating and rewarding controls which reveal a more coercive use of the MCS overall. We argue that modifications to the MCS cannot be understood without an appreciation of the MNEs’ fiscal transfer pricing compliance process

The Marketing Performance of Illinois and Kansas Wheat Farmers

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the marketing performance of wheat farmers in Illinois and Kansas over 1982–2004. The results show that farmer benchmark prices for wheat in Illinois and Kansas fall in the middle third of the price range about half to three-quarters of the time. Consistent with previous studies, this refutes the contention that Illinois and Kansas wheat farmers routinely market the bulk of their wheat crop in the bottom portion of the price range. Tests of the average difference between farmer and market benchmark prices are sensitive to the market benchmark considered. The marketing performance of wheat farmers in Illinois and Kansas is about equal to the market if a 24- or 20-month market benchmark is used, slightly above the market if a 12-month price benchmark is used, and significantly less than the market if the harvest benchmark is used. The sensitivity of marketing performance to the market benchmark considered is explained by the seasonal pattern of prices. While Illinois producers performed slightly better than their counterparts in Kansas, notable differences in performance across these two geographic areas is not observed.benchmarks, Illinois, Kansas, marketing, performance, price, wheat, Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, Marketing, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, Q11, Q13,

THE PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES IN CORN AND SOYBEANS OVER 1995-2000

The purpose of this research report is to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services for the 1995-2000 corn and soybean crops. Certain explicit assumptions are made to produce a consistent and comparable set of results across the different advisory programs. These assumptions are intended to accurately depict "real-world" marketing conditions. Several key assumptions are: i) with a few exceptions, the marketing window for a crop year runs from September before harvest through August after harvest, ii) cash prices and yields refer to a central Illinois farm, iii) storage is assumed to occur at on-farm or commercial sites, and iv) marketing loan recommendations made by advisory programs are followed wherever feasible. Based on these assumptions, the net price received by a subscriber to market advisory programs is calculated for the 1995-2000 corn and soybean crops. Market and farmer benchmarks are developed for the performance evaluations. Two market benchmarks are specified in order to test the fragility of performance results to changing benchmark assumptions. The 24-month market benchmark averages market prices for the entire 24-month marketing window. The 20-month market benchmark is computed in a similar fashion, except the first four months of the marketing window are omitted. The farmer benchmark is based upon the USDA average price received series for corn and soybeans in Illinois. The same assumptions applied to advisory program track records are used when computing the market and farmer benchmarks. Four basic indicators of performance are applied to advisory program prices and revenues over 1995-2000. The results provide limited evidence that advisory programs as a group outperform market benchmarks, particularly after considering risk. In contrast, substantial evidence exists that advisory programs as a group outperform the farmer benchmarks, even after taking risk into account. Whether the superior performance of advisory programs versus the farmer benchmark is attributed to luck or skill depends on one's theoretical perspective. Efficient market theory favors a luck interpretation, while behavioral market theory favors a skill interpretation. Regardless of the theoretical perspective, there is little evidence that advisory programs with superior performance can be usefully selected based on past performance.Marketing,

Financing Growth of Cellulosic Ethanol

The U.S. biofuel industry is striving to produce ethanol from cellulosic feedstock sources in an effort to augment its existing corn grain-based ethanol production infrastructure. Technology to commercially produce cellulosic ethanol is rapidly advancing due in large part to the availability of substancial federal research and development funding. At the moment, several firms have pilot scale cellulosic ethanol production facilities under construction and testing. The transition from pilot scale to full commercialization of cellulosic ethanol will be difficult, due in large part financial constraints being imposed both internally and externally on the biofuels industry. This paper provides an overview of the biofuel industry’s current financial setting and describes future challenges it faces in attempting to expand. These challenges are rooted in lack of industry capital, limited availability of performance benchmarks, concerns regarding future prospects of the industry, and general uncertainty in U.S. financial markets. If the U.S. biofuels industry is unable to capitalize and develop this next phase of growth, foreign competitors, primarily Brazil and Mexico, appear well positioned to fill U.S. consumer’s demand for advanced biofuels.biofuel cellulosic ethanol finance investment risk, Agricultural Finance, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Optimal Valuation and Timing of Price Benchmarks for IT Services Contracts

Information technology (IT) services contracts often contain provisions for benchmarking fixed prices to current market prices. Prices of IT services tend to be opaque, but can be revealed through third-party benchmarks. Little research has been conducted on the value and timing of such benchmarks. We draw upon the theory of mortgage refinance and value-at-risk analysis from financial economics, and the IT investment under uncertainty literature to create a model of the benchmarking decision for IT services contracts. Our model permits the determination of the value and optimal timing of the benchmark. We provide conditions under which a client firm should consider one or multiple benchmark provisions. Our solution is robust to uncertainty surrounding benchmark forecasts. Firms can leverage market price uncertainties and exercise benchmarks even when the potential rate of declining IT prices does not reach a minimum threshold to benchmark

Reevaluating the Roles of Large Public Surpluses and Sovereign Wealth Funds in Asia

This paper discusses the increasingly important roles of Asian official institutions in the new global financial landscape and the reasons that have led to the build-up of massive public surpluses. We re-examine the role of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) as the de facto "global lender of last resort" during the recent financial crisis. Specifically, we analyze SWFs’ balance sheet characteristics, target allocations strategies, strategic agendas and political realities, management philosophies, and other real-world challenges, both before and after the crisis. Part of our analysis incorporates data which includes announced deals, regulatory filings, balance sheet information, and actual performance data made available by specific SWFs. We also point out a logical inconsistency in the common application of the Berk-Green alpha argument to the management of SWFs. For instance, the recent work done by Ang, Goetzmann, and Schaefer (2009) suggests limited or no evidence that alpha-seeking activities have impacts on SWF performance. We argue that the problem may be partially due to the choice of an appropriate performance benchmark for such large, non-commercial mandates. Finally, we propose a set of principles to construct a fair performance benchmark for SWFs.sovereign wealth funds; global financial crisis; public surpluses; global financial system