CausaLM: Causal Model Explanation Through Counterfactual Language Models

Understanding predictions made by deep neural networks is notoriously difficult, but also crucial to their dissemination. As all ML-based methods, they are as good as their training data, and can also capture unwanted biases. While there are tools that can help understand whether such biases exist, they do not distinguish between correlation and causation, and might be ill-suited for text-based models and for reasoning about high level language concepts. A key problem of estimating the causal effect of a concept of interest on a given model is that this estimation requires the generation of counterfactual examples, which is challenging with existing generation technology. To bridge that gap, we propose CausaLM, a framework for producing causal model explanations using counterfactual language representation models. Our approach is based on fine-tuning of deep contextualized embedding models with auxiliary adversarial tasks derived from the causal graph of the problem. Concretely, we show that by carefully choosing auxiliary adversarial pre-training tasks, language representation models such as BERT can effectively learn a counterfactual representation for a given concept of interest, and be used to estimate its true causal effect on model performance. A byproduct of our method is a language representation model that is unaffected by the tested concept, which can be useful in mitigating unwanted bias ingrained in the data.Comment: Our code and data are available at: https://amirfeder.github.io/CausaLM/ Under review for the Computational Linguistics journa

Adversarial De-confounding in Individualised Treatment Effects Estimation

Observational studies have recently received significant attention from the machine learning community due to the increasingly available non-experimental observational data and the limitations of the experimental studies, such as considerable cost, impracticality, small and less representative sample sizes, etc. In observational studies, de-confounding is a fundamental problem of individualised treatment effects (ITE) estimation. This paper proposes disentangled representations with adversarial training to selectively balance the confounders in the binary treatment setting for the ITE estimation. The adversarial training of treatment policy selectively encourages treatment-agnostic balanced representations for the confounders and helps to estimate the ITE in the observational studies via counterfactual inference. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets, with varying degrees of confounding, prove that our proposed approach improves the state-of-the-art methods in achieving lower error in the ITE estimation.Comment: accepted to AISTATS 202

Deep Causal Learning for Robotic Intelligence

This invited review discusses causal learning in the context of robotic intelligence. The paper introduced the psychological findings on causal learning in human cognition, then it introduced the traditional statistical solutions on causal discovery and causal inference. The paper reviewed recent deep causal learning algorithms with a focus on their architectures and the benefits of using deep nets and discussed the gap between deep causal learning and the needs of robotic intelligence

A Foundational Framework and Methodology for Personalized Early and Timely Diagnosis

Early diagnosis of diseases holds the potential for deep transformation in healthcare by enabling better treatment options, improving long-term survival and quality of life, and reducing overall cost. With the advent of medical big data, advances in diagnostic tests as well as in machine learning and statistics, early or timely diagnosis seems within reach. Early diagnosis research often neglects the potential for optimizing individual diagnostic paths. To enable personalized early diagnosis, a foundational framework is needed that delineates the diagnosis process and systematically identifies the time-dependent value of various diagnostic tests for an individual patient given their unique characteristics. Here, we propose the first foundational framework for early and timely diagnosis. It builds on decision-theoretic approaches to outline the diagnosis process and integrates machine learning and statistical methodology for estimating the optimal personalized diagnostic path. To describe the proposed framework as well as possibly other frameworks, we provide essential definitions. The development of a foundational framework is necessary for several reasons: 1) formalism provides clarity for the development of decision support tools; 2) observed information can be complemented with estimates of the future patient trajectory; 3) the net benefit of counterfactual diagnostic paths and associated uncertainties can be modeled for individuals 4) 'early' and 'timely' diagnosis can be clearly defined; 5) a mechanism emerges for assessing the value of technologies in terms of their impact on personalized early diagnosis, resulting health outcomes and incurred costs. Finally, we hope that this foundational framework will unlock the long-awaited potential of timely diagnosis and intervention, leading to improved outcomes for patients and higher cost-effectiveness for healthcare systems.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figure

Bayesian Neural Controlled Differential Equations for Treatment Effect Estimation

Treatment effect estimation in continuous time is crucial for personalized medicine. However, existing methods for this task are limited to point estimates of the potential outcomes, whereas uncertainty estimates have been ignored. Needless to say, uncertainty quantification is crucial for reliable decision-making in medical applications. To fill this gap, we propose a novel Bayesian neural controlled differential equation (BNCDE) for treatment effect estimation in continuous time. In our BNCDE, the time dimension is modeled through a coupled system of neural controlled differential equations and neural stochastic differential equations, where the neural stochastic differential equations allow for tractable variational Bayesian inference. Thereby, for an assigned sequence of treatments, our BNCDE provides meaningful posterior predictive distributions of the potential outcomes. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first tailored neural method to provide uncertainty estimates of treatment effects in continuous time. As such, our method is of direct practical value for promoting reliable decision-making in medicine

Deep Causal Learning: Representation, Discovery and Inference

Causal learning has attracted much attention in recent years because causality reveals the essential relationship between things and indicates how the world progresses. However, there are many problems and bottlenecks in traditional causal learning methods, such as high-dimensional unstructured variables, combinatorial optimization problems, unknown intervention, unobserved confounders, selection bias and estimation bias. Deep causal learning, that is, causal learning based on deep neural networks, brings new insights for addressing these problems. While many deep learning-based causal discovery and causal inference methods have been proposed, there is a lack of reviews exploring the internal mechanism of deep learning to improve causal learning. In this article, we comprehensively review how deep learning can contribute to causal learning by addressing conventional challenges from three aspects: representation, discovery, and inference. We point out that deep causal learning is important for the theoretical extension and application expansion of causal science and is also an indispensable part of general artificial intelligence. We conclude the article with a summary of open issues and potential directions for future work

Estimating average causal effects from patient trajectories

In medical practice, treatments are selected based on the expected causal effects on patient outcomes. Here, the gold standard for estimating causal effects are randomized controlled trials; however, such trials are costly and sometimes even unethical. Instead, medical practice is increasingly interested in estimating causal effects among patient (sub)groups from electronic health records, that is, observational data. In this paper, we aim at estimating the average causal effect (ACE) from observational data (patient trajectories) that are collected over time. For this, we propose DeepACE: an end-to-end deep learning model. DeepACE leverages the iterative G-computation formula to adjust for the bias induced by time-varying confounders. Moreover, we develop a novel sequential targeting procedure which ensures that DeepACE has favorable theoretical properties, i.e., is doubly robust and asymptotically efficient. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that proposes an end-to-end deep learning model tailored for estimating time-varying ACEs. We compare DeepACE in an extensive number of experiments, confirming that it achieves state-of-the-art performance. We further provide a case study for patients suffering from low back pain to demonstrate that DeepACE generates important and meaningful findings for clinical practice. Our work enables practitioners to develop effective treatment recommendations based on population effects.Comment: Accepted at AAAI 202