A hybrid Delphi-SWOT paradigm for oil and gas pipeline strategic planning in Caspian Sea basin

The Caspian Sea basin holds large quantities of both oil and natural gas that could help meet the increasing global demand for energy resources. Consequently, the oil and gas potential of the region has attracted the attention of the international oil and gas industry. The key to realizing the energy producing potential of the region is the development of transnational export routes to take oil and gas from the landlocked Caspian Sea basin to world markets. The evaluation and selection of alternative transnational export routes is a complex multi-criteria problem with conflicting objectives. The decision makers (DMs) are required to consider a vast amount of information concerning internal strengths and weaknesses of the alternative routes as well as external opportunities and threats to them. This paper presents a hybrid model that combines strength, weakness, opportunity and threat (SWOT) analysis with the Delphi metho

Missouri River Water Use in North Dakota

Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Construction of capital procurement decision making model to optimize supplier selection using Fuzzy Delphi and AHP-DEMATEL

Purpose – Supplier selection for capital procurement is a major strategic decision for any automobile company. The decision determines the success of the company and must be taken systematically with the utmost transparency. Therefore, the aim of this study is the construction of capital procurement decision making models to optimize supplier selection in the Indian automobile industry. Design/methodology/approach – To achieve the stated objective, a combined approach of fuzzy theory and AHP-DEMATEL is applied. Evaluation parameters are identified through an extensive literature review and criteria validation has been introduced through a Fuzzy Delphi method by using fuzzy linguistic scales to handle the vagueness of information. AHP is employed to find the priority weight of criteria although an inter-relationship map among criteria is not possible through AHP alone since it considers all criteria as independent. To overcome this, DEMATEL is used to establish cause-effect relationships among criteria. Findings – The results show that the total cost of ownership is the first weighted criterion in supplier selection for capital procurement, followed by manufacturing flexibility and maintainability, then conformity with requirement. The cause-effect model shows that supplier profile, total cost of ownership, service support and conformity with requirement are in the cause group and are considered to be the most critical factors in selecting the supplier. Originality/value – The study’s outcome can help the automobile industry to optimize their selection process in selecting their suppliers for capital procurement; the proposed model can provide guidelines and direction in this regard.N

Investigating the role of social media in polio prevention in India: a Delphi-DEMATEL approach

Abstract Purpose- This study aims to evaluate the role of social media (SM) tools in the polio prevention in an Indian context, using a hybrid Delphi-DEMATEL approach. Design/methodology/approach- A preliminary list of suitable evaluation criteria was derived from an extensive literature review. Ten experts were then contacted to collect data and finalize the most prominent criteria using the Delphi method. To establish cause-effect relationships among the criteria, further data were collected from twenty-one experts. The decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method was applied to process and interpret the data collected. Findings- The analysis grouped criteria into two sets, i.e. cause and effect. The results show that awareness of social cause and government utilization of resources fall into the cause group; these elements are critical since both directly affect the remaining criteria. These outcomes can help government and businesses to utilize SM for public health surveillance, e.g. to promote schemes/initiatives through sites concerning polio or related health issues. Practical implications- The findings of this research are useful for governments and individual companies to conceive their marketing initiatives akin to polio prevention issues using SM. Originality/value- Despite the emergence of SM, there has been little discussion in existing literature on their role for polio prevention; however, measuring such role could be useful in practice, to help decision makers (DMs) exploiting the potential of SM in the healthcare context. To fill this gap, this study aims to measure the role of SM in polio prevention in the Indian context and to create a cause-effect evaluation model. Using an integrated Delphi-DEMATEL framework for decision-making in the healthcare context is another novelty of this study.N

Learning Analytics: Visions of the Future

It is important that the LAK community looks to the future, in order that it can help develop the policies, infrastructure and frameworks that will shape its future direction and activity. Taking as its basis the Visions of the Future study carried out by the Learning Analytics Community Exchange (LACE) project, the panelists will present future scenarios and their implications. The session will include time for the audience to discuss both the findings of the study and actions that could be taken by the LAK community in response to these findings

Research Priorities in Mobile Learning: An International Delphi Study

Along with advancing mobile technologies and proliferating mobile devices and applications, mobile learning research has gained great momentum in recent years. While there have been review articles summarizing past research, studies identifying mobile learning research priorities based on experts’ latest insights have been lacking. This study employed the Delphi method to obtain a consensus from experts about areas that are most in need of research in mobile learning. An international expert panel participated in a three-round Delphi process involving two cycles of online questionnaires and feedback reports. Participants responded to the question, “What should be the research priorities for the field of mobile learning over the next 5 years?” Ten research categories were identified and ranked in order of priority: 1) teaching and learning strategies; 2) affordances; 3) theory; 4) settings of learning; 5) evaluation/assessment; 6) learners; 7) mobile technologies and interface design; 8) context awareness and augmented reality; 9) infrastructure and management; and 10) country and digital divide. This study also reported expert-generated research statements for each research category and the importance of these research statements rated by the experts. Selected research papers were summarized to help contextualize the discussions of research categories and statements

Approaches Used in Organic and Low Input Food Processing – Impact on Food Quality and Safety. Results of a delphi survey from an expert consultation in 13 European Countries.

The overall objective of the subproject on processing, where the Delphi expert survey was an important task, is “to develop of a framework for the design of “minimum” and “low input” processing strategies, which guarantee food quality and safety.” It should support the overall aim of the integrated QLIF Project (Quality of Low-Input Food) in improving quality, ensuring safety and reducing costs along the European organic and “low input” food supply chains through research, dissemination and training activities. The method chosen was the Delphi method. The work was carried out in the form of a two step Delphi survey. In the first round 250 experts in 13 countries in Europe were involved, and were asked to respond to a standardised questionnaire in October and November 2004 and the second round from March to May 2005. The Delphi expert survey was designed in such a way that the most important and currently discussed aspects regarding organic food processing have been taken up. 120 experts from 13 countries (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Netherlands, Slovakia, Spain, and Switzerland) answered the first round and 83 experts from 13 countries answered the second round. Based on the experiences from other EU projects (Hamm et al. 2002), a classification was made with regard to the development stage of the country in the organic market development

Future scenarios to inspire innovation

In recent years and accelerated by the economic and financial crisis, complex global issues have moved to the forefront of policy making. These grand challenges require policy makers to address a variety of interrelated issues, which are built upon yet uncoordinated and dispersed bodies of knowledge. Due to the social dynamics of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging, however there is lack of exploitation of innovative solutions. In this paper we argue that issues of how knowledge is represented can have a part in this lack of exploitation. For example, when drivers of change are not only multiple but also mutable, it is not sensible to extrapolate the future from data and relationships of the past. This paper investigates ways in which futures thinking can be used as a tool for inspiring actions and structures that address the grand challenges. By analysing several scenario cases, elements of good practice and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified. This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems

Airport Security Checkpoint Screener: An Analytical Study of Job Retention and Attrition Factors

The proposed research seeks to identify the factors contributing to job retention and job attrition in terms of why an airport security checkpoint screener would try or want to stay on the job or leave the job. By identifying the causes of employee satisfaction and dissatisfaction, and by understanding the integral components of employee turnover can develop appropriate interventions that curb existing retention problems (exceeding 70% annually in most facilities). Aside from the obvious costs affiliated with recruiting, selecting, and training replacement employees, there is likely to be a detrimental impact on the effectiveness of airline passenger screening when a substantial percentage of the workforce are novice workers. The success and deterrent potential of an airport security checkpoint is primarily dependent on the personnel who operate it. As with most safety-critical systems, there is no room for system-induced or operator-induced errors. To date there has been little emphasis placed on the selection of airport security checkpoint sreeners. In a report by the 1989 Presidents Commission on Aviation Security and Terrorism (Presidents Commission, 1990), the commission was critical toward the Federal Aviation Administration with regard to how little attention was paid on recruiting and motivating security personnel. The significance of the work has many dementions to it. Ideas and conclusions formulated from these concerns and issues are essential in addressing the empirical attention needed in this area. They also carry strong implications toward the standardization of screening and hiring of airport security checkpoint screeners and towards the development of a standardized protocol that can be applied industry-wide

The Validation of a Detailed Strategic Planning Process Model for the Implementation of Distance Education in Higher Education

The purpose of this study was to develop, refine, and validate a model of the strategic planning process for distance education. To achieve this end, the informed opinion from a population of peer-nominated experts was solicited over three rounds of iterative Delphi questionnaires administered via electronic mail. Using descriptive statistics to analyze central tendency and variation, the straw model was refined into a validated model by the final Delphi round. In developing this model, the study answered specific questions about the following: (1) The impact of volatile technological change on a strategic distance education plan. (2) The optimum size and composition of a strategic planning body for distance education. (3) The use of planning assumptions. (4) Internal and external factors that are part of the strategic assessment (scan) and analysis for distance education. (5) The development and selection of courses of action in the planning process. (6) Critical steps in the strategic planning process for distance education. The panel of experts required for a Delphi study was selected by soliciting the names of individuals considered experts in the area of planning for distance education from a purposefully selected sample of professionals involved in distance education. From this population 28 experts agreed to serve on the Delphi panel and 22 experts (78.57%) completed all three rounds of the study. A straw model, representing a synthesis of the literature on the strategic planning process, served as the framework for this research. The Delphi panel of experts was asked to identify the issues and questions that they believe should be addressed in each of the phases of the straw model. The Delphi questionnaires were employed in a sequence that effectively developed, refined, and validated a model of the strategic planning process for distance education. The findings of this study provided a detailed model of the strategic planning process for distance education designed to empower higher education planners to be proactive in the highly dynamic distance education environment. The Distance Education Strategic Planning Process Model includes 202 planning elements and 10 planning phases presented in a hypertext format to enable nonlinear navigation