Evolution of V838 Monocerotis during and after the 2002 eruption

By fitting the available photometric data on V838 Mon with standard supergiant spectra we have derived principal stellar parameters, i.e. effective temperature, radius and luminosity, and followed the evolution of the object since its discovery in early January 2002. Our analysis shows that the 2002 outburst of V838 Mon consisted of two major phases: pre-eruption which was observed in January 2002 and a major outburst, called eruption, which started in the beginning of February 2002. During pre-eruption the object seemed to be relaxing after an initial event which had presumably taken place in last days of December 2001. The eruption phase, which lasted till mid-April 2002, resulted from a very strong energy burst, which presumably took place in last days of January at the base of the stellar envelope inflated in pre-eruption. The burst produced an energy wave, which was observed as a strong luminosity flash in the beginning of February, followed by a strong mass outflow in form of two shells, which was observed as an expanding photosphere in later epochs. In mid-April, when the outflow became optically transparent and most of its energy radiated away, the object entered the decline phase during which V838 Mon was evolving along the Hayashi track. This we interpret as an evidence that the main energy source during decline was due to gravitational contraction of the object envelope inflated in eruption. Late in 2002 a dust formation started in the expanding shells which gave rise to a strong infrared excess observed in 2003.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables, accepted in Astronomy & Astrophysic

OGLE-2002-BLG-360: from a gravitational microlensing candidate to an overlooked red transient

OGLE-2002-BLG-360 was discovered as a microlensing candidate by the OGLE-III project. The subsequent light curve however clearly showed that the brightening of the object could not have resulted from the gravitational microlensing phenomenon. We aim to explain the nature of OGLE-2002-BLG-360 and its eruption observed in 2002--2006. The observational data primarily come from the archives of the OGLE project, which monitored the object in 2001--2009. The archives of the MACHO and MOA projects also provided us with additional data obtained in 1995--99 and 2000--2005, respectively. These data allowed us to analyse the light curve of the object during its eruption, as well as the potential variability of its progenitor. In the archives of several infrared surveys, namely 2MASS, MSX, Spitzer, AKARI, WISE, and VVV, we found measurements of the object, which allowed us to study the spectral energy distribution (SED) of the object. We constructed a simple model of a star surrounded by a dusty envelope, which was used to interpret the observed SED. Our analysis of the data clearly shows that OGLE-2002-BLG-360 was most probably a red transient, i.e. an object similar in nature to V838 Mon, whose eruption was observed in 2002. The SED in all phases, i.e. progenitor, eruption, and remnant, was dominated by infrared emission, which we interpret as evidence of dust formation in an intense mass outflow. Since 2009 the object has been completely embedded in dust. We suggest that the progenitor of OGLE-2002-BLG-360 was a binary, which had entered the common-envelope phase a long time (at least decades) before the observed eruption, and that the eruption resulted from the final merger of the binary components. We point out similarities between OGLE-2002-BLG-360 and CK Vul, whose eruption was observed in 1670--72, and this strengthens the hypothesis that CK Vul was also a red transient.Comment: accepted in A&

Sensitivity to lunar cycles prior to the 2007 eruption of Ruapehu volcano

A long-standing question in Earth Science is the extent to which seismic and volcanic activity can be regulated by tidal stresses, a repeatable and predictable external excitation induced by the Moon-Sun gravitational force. Fortnightly tides, a similar to 14-day amplitude modulation of the daily tidal stresses that is associated to lunar cycles, have been suggested to affect volcano dynamics. However, previous studies found contradictory results and remain mostly inconclusive. Here we study how fortnightly tides have affected Ruapehu volcano (New Zealand) from 2004 to 2016 by analysing the rolling correlation between lunar cycles and seismic amplitude recorded close to the crater. The long-term (similar to 1-year) correlation is found to increase significantly (up to confidence level of 5-sigma) during the similar to 3 months preceding the 2007 phreatic eruption of Ruapehu, thus revealing that the volcano is sensitive to fortnightly tides when it is prone to explode. We show through a mechanistic model that the real-time monitoring of seismic sensitivity to lunar cycles may help to detect the clogging of active volcanic vents, and thus to better forecast phreatic volcanic eruptions

Numerical simulation of lava flows based on depth-averaged equations

Risks and damages associated with lava flows propagation (for instance the most recent Etna eruptions) require a quantitative description of this phenomenon and a reliable forecasting of lava flow paths. Due to the high complexity of these processes, numerical solution of the complete conservation equations for real lava flows is often practically impossible. To overcome the computational difficulties, simplified models are usually adopted, including 1-D models and cellular automata. In this work we propose a simplified 2D model based on the conservation equations for lava thickness and depth-averaged velocities and temperature which result in first order partial differential equations. The proposed approach represents a good compromise between the full 3-D description and the need to decrease the computational time. The method was satisfactorily applied to reproduce some analytical solutions and to simulate a real lava flow event occurred during the 1991-93 Etna eruption.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Magnetic Flux of EUV Arcade and Dimming Regions as a Relevant Parameter for Early Diagnostics of Solar Eruptions - Sources of Non-Recurrent Geomagnetic Storms and Forbush Decreases

This study aims at the early diagnostics of geoeffectiveness of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from quantitative parameters of the accompanying EUV dimming and arcade events. We study events of the 23th solar cycle, in which major non-recurrent geomagnetic storms (GMS) with Dst <-100 nT are sufficiently reliably identified with their solar sources in the central part of the disk. Using the SOHO/EIT 195 A images and MDI magnetograms, we select significant dimming and arcade areas and calculate summarized unsigned magnetic fluxes in these regions at the photospheric level. The high relevance of this eruption parameter is displayed by its pronounced correlation with the Forbush decrease (FD) magnitude, which, unlike GMSs, does not depend on the sign of the Bz component but is determined by global characteristics of ICMEs. Correlations with the same magnetic flux in the solar source region are found for the GMS intensity (at the first step, without taking into account factors determining the Bz component near the Earth), as well as for the temporal intervals between the solar eruptions and the GMS onset and peak times. The larger the magnetic flux, the stronger the FD and GMS intensities are and the shorter the ICME transit time is. The revealed correlations indicate that the main quantitative characteristics of major non-recurrent space weather disturbances are largely determined by measurable parameters of solar eruptions, in particular, by the magnetic flux in dimming areas and arcades, and can be tentatively estimated in advance with a lead time from 1 to 4 days. For GMS intensity, the revealed dependencies allow one to estimate a possible value, which can be expected if the Bz component is negative.Comment: 27 pages, 5 figures. Accepted for publication in Solar Physic

An analytical model for gas overpressure in slug-driven explosions:insights into Strombolian volcanic eruptions

Strombolian eruptions, common at basaltic volcanoes, are mildly explosive events that are driven by a large bubble of magmatic gas (a slug) rising up the conduit and bursting at the surface. Gas overpressure within the bursting slug governs explosion dynamics and vigor and is the main factor controlling associated acoustic and seismic signals. We present a theoretical investigation of slug overpressure based on magma-static and geometric considerations and develop a set of equations that can be used to calculate the overpressure in a slug when it bursts, slug length at burst, and the depth at which the burst process begins. We find that burst overpressure is controlled by two dimensionless parameters: V', which represents the amount of gas in the slug, and A', which represents the thickness of the film of magma that falls around the rising slug. Burst overpressure increases nonlinearly as V' and A' increase. We consider two eruptive scenarios: (1) the "standard model," in which magma remains confined to the vent during slug expansion, and (2) the " overflow model," in which slug expansion is associated with lava effusion, as occasionally observed in the field. We find that slug overpressure is higher for the overflow model by a factor of 1.2-2.4. Applying our model to typical Strombolian eruptions at Stromboli, we find that the transition from passive degassing to explosive bursting occurs for slugs with volume >24-230 m(3), depending on magma viscosity and conduit diameter, and that at burst, a typical Strombolian slug (with a volume of 100-1000 m(3)) has an internal gas pressure of 1-5 bars and a length of 13-120 m. We compare model predictions with field data from Stromboli for low-energy " puffers," mildly explosive Strombolian eruptions, and the violently explosive 5 April 2003 paroxysm. We find that model predictions are consistent with field observations across this broad spectrum of eruptive styles, suggesting a common slug-driven mechanism; we propose that paroxysms are driven by unusually large slugs (large V')