A spatial decision support system for autodistricting collection units for the taking of the Canadian census

This dissertation documents the districting requirements for collection units for taking the Canadian Census and provides a spatial decision support system for their automatic creation. In the context of the literature on autodistricting, this problem falls under the general category of creating districts for monitoring, surveillance and inventory applications since the Census is essentially an spatial inventory exercise. The basic requirement is to create an area-based categorical coverage such that the workload is equitably distributed amongst Census Representatives within the limits of a large number of constraints and conditions.A new omnibus automated districting process that combines a 3-stage cascading selection procedure for identifying sub-blockface, blockface and block level collection units with a 4- stage heuristic solution procedure for grouping blocks (termed 'assigns', 'annexes', 're-assigns' and 'adjusts') is contributed by this research to provide a systematic response to varying districting situations.The resulting spatial decision support system for autodistricting has been tested on test data sets and on one of the larger urban population centres of Canada. The set of test pattern sites mimicking typical settlement patterns was generated to ensure that the various alternative assignment or block grouping methods (i.e., unidirectional and bidirectional tessellations based on circular and rectangular grids and regular, random and 'extrema-based' seeds) performed as designed and specified. The Census Subdivision of Laval (in the Census Metropolitan Area of Montreal) was selected as the test site for comparing the performance of the autodistricting capacity to the actual, manually created, results from the 1986 Census.To permit the comparison of results from classical manual and automated processes, a set of satisficing evaluation functions that vary in accordance with data availability was implemented in the context of a competing set of districting objectives. The most sophisticated of these evaluation functions incorporates a composite index that combines the distribution and a measure of the 'density' of the dwellings with the length of the route that must be followed to complete the collection activity (including travel time to the start of the route and between route parts).To assess the continued acceptability of the districting from the previous Census, and/or to select between alternative results generated by computer-assisted approaches, a set of objective functions is provided that vary depending upon the available amount of geographic, cartographic or statistical data

Examining and Evaluating Aggregation Scale Effects on Interregional Commodity by Industry Trade Flow Estimates

This study tests the implementation of interindustry transaction flows in a national system of economic regions derived from an interregional accounting framework and initial information on interregional shipments. The interregional flows connecting states are estimated using a method based on the Commodity Flow Survey data published by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, which adjusts the estimated interregional SAM to insure the integrity of intraregional and system-wide, national accounts. The resulting US interregional framework describes flows within and among the 51 regions We examine results of a series of trials testing the validity of the resulting interregional trade-flow data versus other data sources and estimates such as Liu and Vilain (2004). The overall difference in estimation accuracy arising from differences in the base aggregation level is a quantity that has attracted little prior attention. To address this issue this paper, in addition to estimating and comparing trade flows using aggregated sectors, also estimates the flows using the 509 disaggregated IMPLAN sectors applies aggregation only in the final comparison steps. This allows us to comment on the additional role sectoral aggregation scale may play in the relative accuracy of trade flow estimation results

Conditionally Efficient Estimation of Long-run Relationships Using Mixed-frequency Time Series

I analyze efficient estimation of a cointegrating vector when the regressand is observed at a lower frequency than the regressors. Previous authors have examined the effects of specific temporal aggregation or sampling schemes, finding conventionally efficient techniques to be efficient only when both the regressand and the regressors are average sampled. Using an alternative method for analyzing aggregation under more general weighting schemes, I derive an efficiency bound that is conditional on the type of aggregation used on the regressand and differs from the unconditional bound defined by the infeasible full-information high-frequency data-generating process. I modify a conventional estimator, canonical cointegrating regression (CCR), to accommodate cases in which the aggregation weights are either unknown or known. In the unknown case, the correlation structure of the error term generally confounds identification of the conditionally efficient weights. In the known case, the correlation structure may be utilized to offset the potential information loss from aggregation, resulting in a conditionally efficient estimator. Efficiency is illustrated using a simulation study and an application to estimating a gasoline demand equation.cointegration, canonical cointegrating regression, temporal aggregation, mixed-frequency series, mixed data sampling, price elasticity of gasoline demand

A Comparison of Methodologies in Empirical General Equilibrium Models of Taxation

Computational general equilibrium models have proven useful in the area of long run analysis of alternative tax policies. A sizable number of studies have been completed which examine policies such as a value-added tax, corporate and personal income tax integration, a consumption or expenditure tax, housing subsidies, and inflation indexation.. This paper reviews the methodologies used in these models. We focus on eight specific models and review in turn: levels of disaggregation, specification of the foreign sector, financial modeling, the measurement of effective tax rates, heterogeneity and imperfect mobility, factor supply, treatment of the government budget, and technical issues associated with implementation. The paper includes some new experiments in connection with simulations of integration of the personal and corporate income tax systems in the United States. We compare the resulting welfare gains in models with different levels of disaggregation, and we discuss alternative justifications for specific disaggregations. We also examine the sensitivity of results to alternative specifications of households' endowments of labor and leisure. Our survey underscores the importance of the assumed elasticities of labor supply with respect to the net of tax wage, and of saving with respect to the net of tax rate of return. Unfortunately, these are also parameters for which there is not a consensus in the economics profession. The survey finds that there are several aspects of modeling that are especially ripe for further progress: the roles of government and business financial decisions, the dynamics of a life-cycle approach, and the measurement of incentive tax and transfer rates.

Improving Demand Forecasting: The Challenge of Forecasting Studies Comparability and a Novel Approach to Hierarchical Time Series Forecasting

Bedarfsprognosen sind in der Wirtschaft unerlässlich. Anhand des erwarteten Kundenbe-darfs bestimmen Firmen beispielsweise welche Produkte sie entwickeln, wie viele Fabri-ken sie bauen, wie viel Personal eingestellt wird oder wie viel Rohmaterial geordert wer-den muss. Fehleinschätzungen bei Bedarfsprognosen können schwerwiegende Auswir-kungen haben, zu Fehlentscheidungen führen, und im schlimmsten Fall den Bankrott einer Firma herbeiführen. Doch in vielen Fällen ist es komplex, den tatsächlichen Bedarf in der Zukunft zu antizipie-ren. Die Einflussfaktoren können vielfältig sein, beispielsweise makroökonomische Ent-wicklung, das Verhalten von Wettbewerbern oder technologische Entwicklungen. Selbst wenn alle Einflussfaktoren bekannt sind, sind die Zusammenhänge und Wechselwirkun-gen häufig nur schwer zu quantifizieren. Diese Dissertation trägt dazu bei, die Genauigkeit von Bedarfsprognosen zu verbessern. Im ersten Teil der Arbeit wird im Rahmen einer überfassenden Übersicht über das gesamte Spektrum der Anwendungsfelder von Bedarfsprognosen ein neuartiger Ansatz eingeführt, wie Studien zu Bedarfsprognosen systematisch verglichen werden können und am Bei-spiel von 116 aktuellen Studien angewandt. Die Vergleichbarkeit von Studien zu verbes-sern ist ein wesentlicher Beitrag zur aktuellen Forschung. Denn anders als bspw. in der Medizinforschung, gibt es für Bedarfsprognosen keine wesentlichen vergleichenden quan-titativen Meta-Studien. Der Grund dafür ist, dass empirische Studien für Bedarfsprognosen keine vereinheitlichte Beschreibung nutzen, um ihre Daten, Verfahren und Ergebnisse zu beschreiben. Wenn Studien hingegen durch systematische Beschreibung direkt miteinan-der verglichen werden können, ermöglicht das anderen Forschern besser zu analysieren, wie sich Variationen in Ansätzen auf die Prognosegüte auswirken – ohne die aufwändige Notwendigkeit, empirische Experimente erneut durchzuführen, die bereits in Studien beschrieben wurden. Diese Arbeit führt erstmals eine solche Systematik zur Beschreibung ein. Der weitere Teil dieser Arbeit behandelt Prognoseverfahren für intermittierende Zeitreihen, also Zeitreihen mit wesentlichem Anteil von Bedarfen gleich Null. Diese Art der Zeitreihen erfüllen die Anforderungen an Stetigkeit der meisten Prognoseverfahren nicht, weshalb gängige Verfahren häufig ungenügende Prognosegüte erreichen. Gleichwohl ist die Rele-vanz intermittierender Zeitreihen hoch – insbesondere Ersatzteile weisen dieses Bedarfs-muster typischerweise auf. Zunächst zeigt diese Arbeit in drei Studien auf, dass auch die getesteten Stand-der-Technik Machine Learning Ansätze bei einigen bekannten Datensät-zen keine generelle Verbesserung herbeiführen. Als wesentlichen Beitrag zur Forschung zeigt diese Arbeit im Weiteren ein neuartiges Verfahren auf: Der Similarity-based Time Series Forecasting (STSF) Ansatz nutzt ein Aggregation-Disaggregationsverfahren basie-rend auf einer selbst erzeugten Hierarchie statistischer Eigenschaften der Zeitreihen. In Zusammenhang mit dem STSF Ansatz können alle verfügbaren Prognosealgorithmen eingesetzt werden – durch die Aggregation wird die Stetigkeitsbedingung erfüllt. In Expe-rimenten an insgesamt sieben öffentlich bekannten Datensätzen und einem proprietären Datensatz zeigt die Arbeit auf, dass die Prognosegüte (gemessen anhand des Root Mean Square Error RMSE) statistisch signifikant um 1-5% im Schnitt gegenüber dem gleichen Verfahren ohne Einsatz von STSF verbessert werden kann. Somit führt das Verfahren eine wesentliche Verbesserung der Prognosegüte herbei. Zusammengefasst trägt diese Dissertation zum aktuellen Stand der Forschung durch die zuvor genannten Verfahren wesentlich bei. Das vorgeschlagene Verfahren zur Standardi-sierung empirischer Studien beschleunigt den Fortschritt der Forschung, da sie verglei-chende Studien ermöglicht. Und mit dem STSF Verfahren steht ein Ansatz bereit, der zuverlässig die Prognosegüte verbessert, und dabei flexibel mit verschiedenen Arten von Prognosealgorithmen einsetzbar ist. Nach dem Erkenntnisstand der umfassenden Literatur-recherche sind keine vergleichbaren Ansätze bislang beschrieben worden

Inconsistencies in Reported Employment Characteristics among Employed Stayers

The paper deals with measurement error, and its potentially distorting role, in information on industry and professional status collected by labour force surveys. The focus of our analyses is on inconsistent information on these employment characteristics resulting from yearly transition matrices for workers who were continuously employed over the year and who did not change job. As a case-study we use yearly panel data for the period from April 1993 to April 2003 collected by the Italian Quarterly Labour Force Survey. The analysis goes through four steps: (i) descriptive indicators of (dis)agreement; (ii) testing whether the consistency of repeated information significantly increases when the number of categories is collapsed; (iii) examination of the pattern of inconsistencies among response categories by means of Goodman's quasi-independence model; (iv) comparisons of alternative classifications. Results document sizable measurement error, which is only moderately reduced by more aggregated classifications. They suggest that even cross-section estimates of employment by industry and/or professional status are affected by non-random measurement error.industry, professional status, measurement errors, survey data

The plutocratic gap in the CPI : evidence from Spain

The plutocratic gap is defined as the difference between the inflation measured according to the current official consumer price index (CPI) and a democratic index in which all households receive the same weight. During 1992–97, the plutocratic gap in Spain averaged 0.055 percentage points a year. Since positive and negative gaps cancel out, however, the average absolute gap is significantly larger: 0.090 percentage points a year. For the purposes of accounting for the plutocratic gap, a 53-dimensional commodity space can be conveniently reduced to two dimensions: a luxury index and a necessities index.Publicad

The plutocratic bias in the CPI : evidence from Spain

We define the plutocratic bias as the difference between the inflation measured according to the current official CPI and a democratic index in which all households receive the same weight. (i) We estimate that during the 1990s the plutocratic bias in Spain amounts to 0.055 per cent per year, or about one third of the classical substitution bias estimated by the Boskin Commission for the U.S. (ii) We find that a 16-dimensional commodity space can be conveniently reduced to 3 dimensions, consisting of a luxury good and two necessities. The price behavior of these 3 goods provides a convincing explanation of the oscillations experimented by the plutocratic bias. (iii) Finally, the fact that the plutocratic bias is positive during this period, implies that the change in money income inequality is between 2 and 5 per cent greater than the change in real income inequality. We study the robustness of these results to the time period considered and to the definition of the group index which serves as an alternative to the CPI. We estimate that during the 1980s and the second part of the 1970s in Spain, the plutocratic bias is 0.033 and 0.239 per cent per year, respectively

Alternative Trade Strategies and Employment - Plan of Research for Country Studies

This paper was originally prepared as part of the first stage of the research project, Alternative Trade Strategies and Employment. The project as a whole is focused upon identifying the relationships between alternative trade strategies -- export promotion and import substitution -- and growth in the demand for labor. The project has altogether three stages: (1) the preparatory stage, in which the theory underlying the relationship between trade strategy and employment was developed and a methodology for undertaking empirical research was formulated; (2) the second stage, in which project participants undertook the empirical research for individual countries and also for particular topics of special interest for the project as a whole, based upon the papers prepared in the first stage; and (3) a summing up, in which the results of the individual studies are analyzed in order to ascertain what insights into the trade-employment relation seem generally applicable. At the present time, the second stage of the project is nearing completion. This paper constituted one part of the first stage of the project: it spells out much of the basic methodology that underlies the individual country studies.

Areal representational issues in using census data for urban research : a comparative analysis of Japanese and U.S. formats

Thesis (M.C.P.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 1996.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 93-95).by Yoshimasa Ito.M.C.P