Endogenous Product Cycles

We construct a model of the product cycle featuring endogenous innovation and endogenous technology transfer. Competitive entrepreneurs in the North expend resources to bring out new products whenever expected present discounted value of future oligopoly profits exceeds current product development costs. Each Northern oligopolist continuously faces the risk that its product will be copied by a Southern imitator, at which time its profit stream will come to an end. In the South, competitive entrepreneurs may devote resources to learning the production processes that have been developed in the North. There too, costs (of reverse engineering) must be covered by a stream of operating profits. We study the determinants of the long-run rate of growth of the world economy, and the long-run rate of technological diffusion. We also provide an analysis of the effects of exogenous events and of public policy on relative wage rates in the two regions.

Endogenous Credit Cycles

We build a model in which verifiability of private debts, timing mismatch in debt settlements and borrowing leverage lead to liquidity crisis in the financial market. Central bank can respond to the liquidity crisis by adopting an unconventional monetary policy that resembles repurchase agreements between the central bank and the lenders. This policy is effective if the timing mismatch is nominal (i.e., a settlement participation risk). It is ineffective if the timing mismatch is driven by a real shock (i.e., preference shock).liquidity problem, timing mismatch, leveraging, liquidity shock, settlement risk, repurchase agreement, consumption shock

ENDOGENOUS GROWTH AND ENDOGENOUS BUSINESS CYCLES

This paper presents a computable general equilibrium model of endogenous (stochastic) growth and cycles that can account for two key features of the aggregate data: balanced growth in the long-run and business cycles in the short-run. The model is built on Schumpeter's idea that economic development is the consequence of the periodic arrival of innovations. There is growth because each subsequent innovation leads to a permanent improvement in the production technology. Cycles arise because innovations trigger a re-allocation of resources between production and R&D. The quantitative implications of the calibrated version of our model are very similar to those of Kydland and Prescott's (1982) model. Moreover, our model can correct two serious shortcomings of RBC models: it can account for the persistence in output growth and the asymmetry of growth within the business cycle.endogenous growth, endogenous business cycles, innovation, R&D

Endogenous business cycles and growth

Current explanations why a growing economy necessarily goes through booms and recessions predict countercyclical R&D investment. As this is very controversial from an empirical perspective, a stochastic Poissonmodel of endogenous business cycles and growth is presented where the determinants of the cyclical behaviour of R&D investment are analytically studied. Providing an explicit expression for the expected length of a cycle shows that high frequency fluctuations can indeed be understood by this approach. It is also shown how small technological improvements translate into large aggregate fluctuations. --Endogenous fluctuations and growth,Uncertainty under continuous time

Endogenous growth cycles

Current explanations why a growing economy necessarily goes through periods of high and low growth predict countercyclical R&D investment. As this is very controversial from an empirical perspective, a stochastic Poisson model of endogenous growth cycles is presented where the determinants of the cyclical behaviour of R&D investment are analytically studied. Providing an explicit expression for the expected length of a cycle shows that high frequency fluctuations can indeed be understood by this approach. It is also shown how small technological improvements translate into large aggregate fluctuations.Endogenous fluctuations and growth; Continuous time uncertainty

Endogenous Cycles and Liquidity Risk

Using an overlapping generations model with liquidity risk, we show that equilibrium aggregate investment and asset prices are cyclical. In an economy with neither a beginning nor an ending date, a stationary equilibrium can be obtained. In a startable equilibrium however, economic activity is highly cyclical. The first generations and consecutive odd ones invest most of their wealth in new long lived technologies, while even generations flock to seasoned claims that are sold by liquidity challenged older cohorts. We find that this liquidity driven cyclicality is driven by the optimal length of the investment horizon, not by agent live spanBusiness Cycles, Overlapping Generations, Liquidity

Endogenous credit cycles

We study models of credit with limited commitment, which implies endogenous borrowing constraints. We show that there are multiple stationary equilibria, as well as nonstationary equilibria, including some that display deterministic cyclic and chaotic dynamics. There are also stochastic (sunspot) equilibria, in which credit conditions change randomly over time, even though fundamentals are deterministic and stationary. We show this can occur when the terms of trade are determined by Walrasian pricing or by Nash bargaining. The results illustrate how it is possible to generate equilibria with credit cycles (crunches, freezes, crises) in theory, and as recently observed in actual economies.

Endogenous Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies

We analyze the effects of simple stylized economic policy rules, or stabilization principles, when fluctuations in economic activity are created endogenously by self_fulfilling volatile expectations. We study a simple monetary competitive model with intertemporally optimizing agents and a government. We only depart from neoclassical orthodoxy by assuming that a cycle or a sunspot equilibrium, not necessarily a steady state, could be the descriptive dynamic rational expectations equilibrium. The government may then well out of welfare concerns want to conduct systematic stabilization policy through transfers, expenditure, and taxation even though this has distortionary effects. We show that the policy rules that stabilize output in a way that is best for welfare involve countercyclical elements in government activity.Endogenous business cycles; Stabilization policy