Decision Stream: Cultivating Deep Decision Trees

Various modifications of decision trees have been extensively used during the past years due to their high efficiency and interpretability. Tree node splitting based on relevant feature selection is a key step of decision tree learning, at the same time being their major shortcoming: the recursive nodes partitioning leads to geometric reduction of data quantity in the leaf nodes, which causes an excessive model complexity and data overfitting. In this paper, we present a novel architecture - a Decision Stream, - aimed to overcome this problem. Instead of building a tree structure during the learning process, we propose merging nodes from different branches based on their similarity that is estimated with two-sample test statistics, which leads to generation of a deep directed acyclic graph of decision rules that can consist of hundreds of levels. To evaluate the proposed solution, we test it on several common machine learning problems - credit scoring, twitter sentiment analysis, aircraft flight control, MNIST and CIFAR image classification, synthetic data classification and regression. Our experimental results reveal that the proposed approach significantly outperforms the standard decision tree learning methods on both regression and classification tasks, yielding a prediction error decrease up to 35%

Towards Data-Driven Autonomics in Data Centers

Continued reliance on human operators for managing data centers is a major impediment for them from ever reaching extreme dimensions. Large computer systems in general, and data centers in particular, will ultimately be managed using predictive computational and executable models obtained through data-science tools, and at that point, the intervention of humans will be limited to setting high-level goals and policies rather than performing low-level operations. Data-driven autonomics, where management and control are based on holistic predictive models that are built and updated using generated data, opens one possible path towards limiting the role of operators in data centers. In this paper, we present a data-science study of a public Google dataset collected in a 12K-node cluster with the goal of building and evaluating a predictive model for node failures. We use BigQuery, the big data SQL platform from the Google Cloud suite, to process massive amounts of data and generate a rich feature set characterizing machine state over time. We describe how an ensemble classifier can be built out of many Random Forest classifiers each trained on these features, to predict if machines will fail in a future 24-hour window. Our evaluation reveals that if we limit false positive rates to 5%, we can achieve true positive rates between 27% and 88% with precision varying between 50% and 72%. We discuss the practicality of including our predictive model as the central component of a data-driven autonomic manager and operating it on-line with live data streams (rather than off-line on data logs). All of the scripts used for BigQuery and classification analyses are publicly available from the authors' website.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure