Efficient Statistics, in High Dimensions, from Truncated Samples

We provide an efficient algorithm for the classical problem, going back to Galton, Pearson, and Fisher, of estimating, with arbitrary accuracy the parameters of a multivariate normal distribution from truncated samples. Truncated samples from a $d$-variate normal ${\cal N}(\mathbf{\mu},\mathbf{\Sigma})$ means a samples is only revealed if it falls in some subset $S \subseteq \mathbb{R}^d$; otherwise the samples are hidden and their count in proportion to the revealed samples is also hidden. We show that the mean $\mathbf{\mu}$ and covariance matrix $\mathbf{\Sigma}$ can be estimated with arbitrary accuracy in polynomial-time, as long as we have oracle access to $S$, and $S$ has non-trivial measure under the unknown $d$-variate normal distribution. Additionally we show that without oracle access to $S$, any non-trivial estimation is impossible.Comment: to appear at 59th Annual IEEE Symposium on Foundations of Computer Science (FOCS), 201

Learning from Censored and Dependent Data: The case of Linear Dynamics

Observations from dynamical systems often exhibit irregularities, such as censoring, where values are recorded only if they fall within a certain range. Censoring is ubiquitous in practice, due to saturating sensors, limit-of-detection effects, and image-frame effects. In light of recent developments on learning linear dynamical systems (LDSs), and on censored statistics with independent data, we revisit the decades-old problem of learning an LDS, from censored observations (Lee and Maddala (1985); Zeger and Brookmeyer (1986)). Here, the learner observes the state $x_t \in \mathbb{R}^d$ if and only if $x_t$ belongs to some set $S_t \subseteq \mathbb{R}^d$. We develop the first computationally and statistically efficient algorithm for learning the system, assuming only oracle access to the sets $S_t$. Our algorithm, Stochastic Online Newton with Switching Gradients, is a novel second-order method that builds on the Online Newton Step (ONS) of Hazan et al. (2007). Our Switching-Gradient scheme does not always use (stochastic) gradients of the function we want to optimize, which we call "censor-aware" function. Instead, in each iteration, it performs a simple test to decide whether to use the censor-aware, or another "censor-oblivious" function, for getting a stochastic gradient. In our analysis, we consider a "generic" Online Newton method, which uses arbitrary vectors instead of gradients, and we prove an error-bound for it. This can be used to appropriately design these vectors, leading to our Switching-Gradient scheme. This framework significantly deviates from the recent long line of works on censored statistics (e.g., Daskalakis et al. (2018); Kontonis et al. (2019); Daskalakis et al. (2019)), which apply Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD), and their analysis reduces to establishing conditions for off-the-shelf SGD-bounds