When and Where: Predicting Human Movements Based on Social Spatial-Temporal Events

Predicting both the time and the location of human movements is valuable but challenging for a variety of applications. To address this problem, we propose an approach considering both the periodicity and the sociality of human movements. We first define a new concept, Social Spatial-Temporal Event (SSTE), to represent social interactions among people. For the time prediction, we characterise the temporal dynamics of SSTEs with an ARMA (AutoRegressive Moving Average) model. To dynamically capture the SSTE kinetics, we propose a Kalman Filter based learning algorithm to learn and incrementally update the ARMA model as a new observation becomes available. For the location prediction, we propose a ranking model where the periodicity and the sociality of human movements are simultaneously taken into consideration for improving the prediction accuracy. Extensive experiments conducted on real data sets validate our proposed approach

Modeling Individual Cyclic Variation in Human Behavior

Cycles are fundamental to human health and behavior. However, modeling cycles in time series data is challenging because in most cases the cycles are not labeled or directly observed and need to be inferred from multidimensional measurements taken over time. Here, we present CyHMMs, a cyclic hidden Markov model method for detecting and modeling cycles in a collection of multidimensional heterogeneous time series data. In contrast to previous cycle modeling methods, CyHMMs deal with a number of challenges encountered in modeling real-world cycles: they can model multivariate data with discrete and continuous dimensions; they explicitly model and are robust to missing data; and they can share information across individuals to model variation both within and between individual time series. Experiments on synthetic and real-world health-tracking data demonstrate that CyHMMs infer cycle lengths more accurately than existing methods, with 58% lower error on simulated data and 63% lower error on real-world data compared to the best-performing baseline. CyHMMs can also perform functions which baselines cannot: they can model the progression of individual features/symptoms over the course of the cycle, identify the most variable features, and cluster individual time series into groups with distinct characteristics. Applying CyHMMs to two real-world health-tracking datasets -- of menstrual cycle symptoms and physical activity tracking data -- yields important insights including which symptoms to expect at each point during the cycle. We also find that people fall into several groups with distinct cycle patterns, and that these groups differ along dimensions not provided to the model. For example, by modeling missing data in the menstrual cycles dataset, we are able to discover a medically relevant group of birth control users even though information on birth control is not given to the model.Comment: Accepted at WWW 201

Data Mining to Uncover Heterogeneous Water Use Behaviors From Smart Meter Data

Knowledge on the determinants and patterns of water demand for different consumers supports the design of customized demand management strategies. Smart meters coupled with big data analytics tools create a unique opportunity to support such strategies. Yet, at present, the information content of smart meter data is not fully mined and usually needs to be complemented with water fixture inventory and survey data to achieve detailed customer segmentation based on end use water usage. In this paper, we developed a data‐driven approach that extracts information on heterogeneous water end use routines, main end use components, and temporal characteristics, only via data mining existing smart meter readings at the scale of individual households. We tested our approach on data from 327 households in Australia, each monitored with smart meters logging water use readings every 5 s. As part of the approach, we first disaggregated the household‐level water use time series into different end uses via Autoflow. We then adapted a customer segmentation based on eigenbehavior analysis to discriminate among heterogeneous water end use routines and identify clusters of consumers presenting similar routines. Results revealed three main water end use profile clusters, each characterized by a primary end use: shower, clothes washing, and irrigation. Time‐of‐use and intensity‐of‐use differences exist within each class, as well as different characteristics of regularity and periodicity over time. Our customer segmentation analysis approach provides utilities with a concise snapshot of recurrent water use routines from smart meter data and can be used to support customized demand management strategies.TU Berlin, Open-Access-Mittel - 201

Single-pulse classifier for the LOFAR Tied-Array All-sky Survey

Searches for millisecond-duration, dispersed single pulses have become a standard tool used during radio pulsar surveys in the last decade. They have enabled the discovery of two new classes of sources: rotating radio transients and fast radio bursts. However, we are now in a regime where the sensitivity to single pulses in radio surveys is often limited more by the strong background of radio frequency interference (RFI, which can greatly increase the false-positive rate) than by the sensitivity of the telescope itself. To mitigate this problem, we introduce the Single-pulse Searcher (SPS). This is a new machine-learning classifier designed to identify astrophysical signals in a strong RFI environment, and optimized to process the large data volumes produced by the new generation of aperture array telescopes. It has been specifically developed for the LOFAR Tied-Array All-Sky Survey (LOTAAS), an ongoing survey for pulsars and fast radio transients in the northern hemisphere. During its development, SPS discovered seven new pulsars and blindly identified ˜80 known sources. The modular design of the software offers the possibility to easily adapt it to other studies with different instruments and characteristics. Indeed, SPS has already been used in other projects, e.g. to identify pulses from the fast radio burst source FRB 121102. The software development is complete and SPS is now being used to re-process all LOTAAS data collected to date

Periodic Pattern Mining a Algorithms and Applications

Owing to a large number of applications periodic pattern mining has been extensively studied for over a decade Periodic pattern is a pattern that repeats itself with a specific period in a give sequence Periodic patterns can be mined from datasets like biological sequences continuous and discrete time series data spatiotemporal data and social networks Periodic patterns are classified based on different criteria Periodic patterns are categorized as frequent periodic patterns and statistically significant patterns based on the frequency of occurrence Frequent periodic patterns are in turn classified as perfect and imperfect periodic patterns full and partial periodic patterns synchronous and asynchronous periodic patterns dense periodic patterns approximate periodic patterns This paper presents a survey of the state of art research on periodic pattern mining algorithms and their application areas A discussion of merits and demerits of these algorithms was given The paper also presents a brief overview of algorithms that can be applied for specific types of datasets like spatiotemporal data and social network