Efficient Time and Space Representation of Uncertain Event Data

Process mining is a discipline which concerns the analysis of execution data of operational processes, the extraction of models from event data, the measurement of the conformance between event data and normative models, and the enhancement of all aspects of processes. Most approaches assume that event data is accurately capture behavior. However, this is not realistic in many applications: data can contain uncertainty, generated from errors in recording, imprecise measurements, and other factors. Recently, new methods have been developed to analyze event data containing uncertainty; these techniques prominently rely on representing uncertain event data by means of graph-based models explicitly capturing uncertainty. In this paper, we introduce a new approach to efficiently calculate a graph representation of the behavior contained in an uncertain process trace. We present our novel algorithm, prove its asymptotic time complexity, and show experimental results that highlight order-of-magnitude performance improvements for the behavior graph construction.Comment: 34 pages, 16 figures, 5 table

Querying Probabilistic Neighborhoods in Spatial Data Sets Efficiently

$\newcommand{\dist}{\operatorname{dist}}$ In this paper we define the notion of a probabilistic neighborhood in spatial data: Let a set $P$ of $n$ points in $\mathbb{R}^d$, a query point $q \in \mathbb{R}^d$, a distance metric \dist, and a monotonically decreasing function $f : \mathbb{R}^+ \rightarrow [0,1]$ be given. Then a point $p \in P$ belongs to the probabilistic neighborhood $N(q, f)$ of $q$ with respect to $f$ with probability f(\dist(p,q)). We envision applications in facility location, sensor networks, and other scenarios where a connection between two entities becomes less likely with increasing distance. A straightforward query algorithm would determine a probabilistic neighborhood in $\Theta(n\cdot d)$ time by probing each point in $P$. To answer the query in sublinear time for the planar case, we augment a quadtree suitably and design a corresponding query algorithm. Our theoretical analysis shows that -- for certain distributions of planar $P$ -- our algorithm answers a query in $O((|N(q,f)| + \sqrt{n})\log n)$ time with high probability (whp). This matches up to a logarithmic factor the cost induced by quadtree-based algorithms for deterministic queries and is asymptotically faster than the straightforward approach whenever $|N(q,f)| \in o(n / \log n)$. As practical proofs of concept we use two applications, one in the Euclidean and one in the hyperbolic plane. In particular, our results yield the first generator for random hyperbolic graphs with arbitrary temperatures in subquadratic time. Moreover, our experimental data show the usefulness of our algorithm even if the point distribution is unknown or not uniform: The running time savings over the pairwise probing approach constitute at least one order of magnitude already for a modest number of points and queries.Comment: The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-44543-4_3

Conditional Reliability in Uncertain Graphs

Network reliability is a well-studied problem that requires to measure the probability that a target node is reachable from a source node in a probabilistic (or uncertain) graph, i.e., a graph where every edge is assigned a probability of existence. Many approaches and problem variants have been considered in the literature, all assuming that edge-existence probabilities are fixed. Nevertheless, in real-world graphs, edge probabilities typically depend on external conditions. In metabolic networks a protein can be converted into another protein with some probability depending on the presence of certain enzymes. In social influence networks the probability that a tweet of some user will be re-tweeted by her followers depends on whether the tweet contains specific hashtags. In transportation networks the probability that a network segment will work properly or not might depend on external conditions such as weather or time of the day. In this paper we overcome this limitation and focus on conditional reliability, that is assessing reliability when edge-existence probabilities depend on a set of conditions. In particular, we study the problem of determining the k conditions that maximize the reliability between two nodes. We deeply characterize our problem and show that, even employing polynomial-time reliability-estimation methods, it is NP-hard, does not admit any PTAS, and the underlying objective function is non-submodular. We then devise a practical method that targets both accuracy and efficiency. We also study natural generalizations of the problem with multiple source and target nodes. An extensive empirical evaluation on several large, real-life graphs demonstrates effectiveness and scalability of the proposed methods.Comment: 14 pages, 13 figure

Investigative Simulation: Towards Utilizing Graph Pattern Matching for Investigative Search

This paper proposes the use of graph pattern matching for investigative graph search, which is the process of searching for and prioritizing persons of interest who may exhibit part or all of a pattern of suspicious behaviors or connections. While there are a variety of applications, our principal motivation is to aid law enforcement in the detection of homegrown violent extremists. We introduce investigative simulation, which consists of several necessary extensions to the existing dual simulation graph pattern matching scheme in order to make it appropriate for intelligence analysts and law enforcement officials. Specifically, we impose a categorical label structure on nodes consistent with the nature of indicators in investigations, as well as prune or complete search results to ensure sensibility and usefulness of partial matches to analysts. Lastly, we introduce a natural top-k ranking scheme that can help analysts prioritize investigative efforts. We demonstrate performance of investigative simulation on a real-world large dataset.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures. Paper to appear in the Fosint-SI 2016 conference proceedings in conjunction with the 2016 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining ASONAM 201

QDQD-Learning: A Collaborative Distributed Strategy for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Through Consensus + Innovations

The paper considers a class of multi-agent Markov decision processes (MDPs), in which the network agents respond differently (as manifested by the instantaneous one-stage random costs) to a global controlled state and the control actions of a remote controller. The paper investigates a distributed reinforcement learning setup with no prior information on the global state transition and local agent cost statistics. Specifically, with the agents' objective consisting of minimizing a network-averaged infinite horizon discounted cost, the paper proposes a distributed version of $Q$-learning, $\mathcal{QD}$-learning, in which the network agents collaborate by means of local processing and mutual information exchange over a sparse (possibly stochastic) communication network to achieve the network goal. Under the assumption that each agent is only aware of its local online cost data and the inter-agent communication network is \emph{weakly} connected, the proposed distributed scheme is almost surely (a.s.) shown to yield asymptotically the desired value function and the optimal stationary control policy at each network agent. The analytical techniques developed in the paper to address the mixed time-scale stochastic dynamics of the \emph{consensus + innovations} form, which arise as a result of the proposed interactive distributed scheme, are of independent interest.Comment: Submitted to the IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 33 page

An information assistant system for the prevention of tunnel vision in crisis management

In the crisis management environment, tunnel vision is a set of bias in decision makers’ cognitive process which often leads to incorrect understanding of the real crisis situation, biased perception of information, and improper decisions. The tunnel vision phenomenon is a consequence of both the challenges in the task and the natural limitation in a human being’s cognitive process. An information assistant system is proposed with the purpose of preventing tunnel vision. The system serves as a platform for monitoring the on-going crisis event. All information goes through the system before arrives at the user. The system enhances the data quality, reduces the data quantity and presents the crisis information in a manner that prevents or repairs the user’s cognitive overload. While working with such a system, the users (crisis managers) are expected to be more likely to stay aware of the actual situation, stay open minded to possibilities, and make proper decisions