Stochastic Sensor Scheduling via Distributed Convex Optimization

In this paper, we propose a stochastic scheduling strategy for estimating the states of N discrete-time linear time invariant (DTLTI) dynamic systems, where only one system can be observed by the sensor at each time instant due to practical resource constraints. The idea of our stochastic strategy is that a system is randomly selected for observation at each time instant according to a pre-assigned probability distribution. We aim to find the optimal pre-assigned probability in order to minimize the maximal estimate error covariance among dynamic systems. We first show that under mild conditions, the stochastic scheduling problem gives an upper bound on the performance of the optimal sensor selection problem, notoriously difficult to solve. We next relax the stochastic scheduling problem into a tractable suboptimal quasi-convex form. We then show that the new problem can be decomposed into coupled small convex optimization problems, and it can be solved in a distributed fashion. Finally, for scheduling implementation, we propose centralized and distributed deterministic scheduling strategies based on the optimal stochastic solution and provide simulation examples.Comment: Proof errors and typos are fixed. One section is removed from last versio

Volatility forecasting

Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series econometrics and economic forecasting in recent decades. This chapter provides a selective survey of the most important theoretical developments and empirical insights to emerge from this burgeoning literature, with a distinct focus on forecasting applications. Volatility is inherently latent, and Section 1 begins with a brief intuitive account of various key volatility concepts. Section 2 then discusses a series of different economic situations in which volatility plays a crucial role, ranging from the use of volatility forecasts in portfolio allocation to density forecasting in risk management. Sections 3, 4 and 5 present a variety of alternative procedures for univariate volatility modeling and forecasting based on the GARCH, stochastic volatility and realized volatility paradigms, respectively. Section 6 extends the discussion to the multivariate problem of forecasting conditional covariances and correlations, and Section 7 discusses volatility forecast evaluation methods in both univariate and multivariate cases. Section 8 concludes briefly. JEL Klassifikation: C10, C53, G1