The Impact of Globalisation on the Euro Area Macroeconomy

The general acceleration of trade globalisation over the last decade –or a growing interdependence of economies via trade, production and financial market linkages– has engendered several macroeconomic implications for the euro area. This paper focuses on assessing the key impacts on the euro area macroeconomy through an analysis of prospective channels, stylised facts and review of relevant empirical findings. It takes a long-term perspective over a period predominantly characterised by the rapid growth of globalisation, nothwithstanding the more recent interruption to the growth of global trade and capital flows that emerged towards the end of 2008 associated with the global financial turmoil and the associated downturn in global economic activity. Following an overview of the salient aspects of globalisation, which highlights the increasing openness of the euro area in terms of both trade and capital flows as well as the global reduction in transportation and information costs and the rise in the effective global supply of labour, the paper then assesses the external impacts of globalisation on the euro area, focussing on trade performance, export specialisation and import prices. It then investigates euro area domestic adjustment to globalisation with a supply-side focus, analysing separately impacts on productivity, labour markets and prices.Globalisation, trade performance, export specialisation, productivity, labour markets and prices.

Globalization and Economic Mobility

Reviews current research on the impact of international trade, outsourcing, and foreign direct investment on unemployment and inequality, and discusses their implications for intragenerational and intergenerational mobility

Offshoring and Home Country R&D

National concerns are sometimes raised against offshoring of economic activities to other countries. While most of the existing literature has focused on the effects on labor demand and productivity the effects on domestic R&D have been neglected. This is unfortunate since the decision to offshore activities also includes R&D. We use unique and rich firm level data for the Swedish manufacturing sector to analyze how offshoring impacts domestic R&D and how these effects vary with respect to target region and type of firm. The results suggest that offshoring of production alter a firm’s investments in R&D in Sweden and that a negative impact on home country R&D is confined to offshoring by non-multinationals and offshoring to Europe and EU15 countries.Offshoring; R&D; Manufacturing sector; EU15

Business services and the changing structure of European economic growth

A pervasive trend that characterised the past two decades of European economic growth is that the share in the economy of commercial services, and particularly business services, grows monotonically, and this mainly to the expensive of the manufacturing sector. The structural shift reflects a changing and increasingly complex social division of labour between economic sectors. The fabric of inter-industry relations is being woven in a new way due to the growing specialisation in knowledge services, the exploitation of scale economies for human capital, lowered costs of outsourcing in-house services, and the growing encapsulation of manufacturing products in a 'service jacket'. Business services, which inter alia includes the software industry and other knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS), play a key role in many of these processes. We argue that in recent decades business services contributed heavily to European economic growth, in terms of employment, productivity and innovation. A direct growth contribution stems from the business-services sector's own remarkably fast growth, while an indirect growth contribution was caused by the positive knowledge and productivity spill-overs from business services to other industries. The spill-overs come in three forms: from original innovations, from speeding up knowledge diffusion, and from the reduction of human capital indivisibilities at firm level. The external supply of knowledge and skill inputs exploits positive external scale economies and reduces reduces the role of internal (firm-level) scale (dis)economies associated with these inputs. The relatively low productivity growth that characterises some business-services sectors may be a drag on the sector's direct contribution to overall economic growth. The paper argues that there is no reason to expect a "Baumol disease" effect as long as the productivity and growth spill-overs from KIBS to other economic sectors are large enough. Finally, the paper concludes by pinpointing some policy 'handles' that could be instrumental in boosting the future contibution of business services to overall European economic growth.

Performance, IT maturity and offshoring behaviour of Italian manufacturing corporations in the dire straits of globalisation

This study examines productivity and profitability of Italian manufacturing corporations in relation to IT usage and offshoring of intermediate goods. The information set is based on a balanced panel of enterprises' economic accounts and foreign trade statistics for the years 2000-2004, linked to 2002 and 2004 surveys on ICT usage. The analytical framework is similar to one previously developed for Sweden, allowing for (partial) comparability. Offshoring is positively related to productivity, although the significance of intensity variables depends on employment size and industry. The same occurs for some variables of IT maturity (workers using PCs and a composite indicator), and for human resources as proxied by cost of labour (i.e. wage levels). These variables also show a positive impact on profitability, although limited to productions which are easy to outsource. Offshoring decisions and IT maturity, instead, do not present any strong mutual relation. The key issue of the direction of causality between IT maturity, offshoring and productivity is also tentatively addressed: lagged offshoring appears to weakly impact productivity, while lagged IT maturity does not, and a reverse causality from productivity to IT maturity is revealed. This first evidence, albeit limited, challenges some commonplaces, suggesting the coexistence of different business models. A richer information set should allow for a more appropriate treatment of these issues, as well as for extending the analysis to other, crucial determinants of performance.Firm behaviour, productivity, profitability, IT usage, offshoring, industrial studies, Manufacturing, Italian economy

Globalisation : trends, issues and macro implications for the EU

Globalisation, defined as an increasingly integrated world economy, has the potential to generate the largest structural upheaval in economies since the industrial revolution. As in the past, this process is being underpinned by both technological change and by a shift in policies in many countries towards a more open, market based, system of economic governance. These policies reflect the realities of a new world order where knowledge creation and absorption and the flexibility of the regulatory and institutional frameworks will be the key determinants of the economic fortunes of economies. This paper examines the historical empirical evidence regarding globalisation and quantifies the macro benefits and costs for the EU over the coming decades.globalisation, trade integration, global productivity, terms of trade, Denis , Mc Morrow, R�ger

Information and Communication Technology: Dynamics, Integration and Economic Stability

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has become a major driver of investment and growth in OECD countries. The analysis puts the focus on key developments in the ICT sector and international outsourcing dynamics as well as the specific role of ICT in the financial sector. One can show that the expansion of ICT is not only contributing to national and international outsourcing but to insourcing as well. Furthermore, ICT affects regional integration. In the context of a modified Dornbusch model – including foreign direct investment – the impact of ICT on output and the exchange rate are discussed. The risk of overshooting in foreign exchange markets is likely to be reduced through the expansion of ICT which allows a more pro-active monetary policy.Integration, ICT, Growth, Foreign Exchange Markets, Stability

Offshoring, Relocation and the Speed of Convergence: Convergence in the Enlarged European Union

Economic convergence of the new member states (NMS) of the EU towards the old EU countries (EU-15), not only in terms of real income, but also in nominal terms, is of paramount importance for the whole of the EU. We build a dynamic CGE model, starting from the Balassa-Samuelson two-sector framework, but modify and enlarge it with forward-looking investment, consumption, and labour mobility behaviour to address several other issues like welfare and sustainability in terms of foreign indebtedness. At the same time we evaluate the impact of convergence on the EU-15 countries also, by endogenising offshoring and the related FDI flows from them to the NMS. Thereby we identify various effects of relocation and globalisation on the EU-15 enlarging the standard set of effects of globalisation and demonstrate the key role of their dynamic nature in the process of convergence. We find that in a general equilibrium setting fears of large adverse effects of a relocation of EU-15 manufacturing to the NMS are not well founded. In contrast, offshoring appears to be a win-win case for both the EU-15 and the NMS in terms of real income. The convergence of the NMS is fairly rapid, but will involve a persistent rapid inflation rate.convergence, relocation, new member states, EU-15

Offshoring, Extent of the Shadow Economy and Firm Performance. Evidence from Italy

Being the G-7 country with the largest shadow-economy share, we posit that Italy's manufacturing firms - to counter emerging economies' competition - could alternatively offshore or enter the shadow economy. Within this context, we investigate, in a sample of Italian firms, whether internationalised firms outperform purely domestic firms in terms of efficiency, innovativeness and skill composition. Using propensity-score-matching and difference-in-difference techniques we find evidence that: (i) offshoring impacts TFP negligibly but, (ii) labour cost relocation robustly causes offshoring; (iii) offshoring firms are more likely innovative and R&D-oriented; (iv) firms in high- shadow -economy provinces less likely offshore. It is also evidenced that the latter firms show lower TFP and R&D expenditure.trade integration; offshoring; empirics of global sourcing; shadow economy