The economic effects of the EU biofuel target.

In this paper we use the CGE model DART to assess the economic impacts and optimality of different aspects of the EU climate package. A special focus is placed on the 10% biofuel target in the EU. In particular we analyze the development in the biofuel sectors, the effects on agricultural production and prices, and finally overall welfare implications. One of the main findings is that the EU emission targets alone lead to onlyminor increases in biofuel production. Additional subsidies are necessary to reach the 10% biofuel target. This in turn increases European agricultural prices by up to 7%. Compared to a cost-effective scenario in which the EU 20% emission reduction target is reached, additional welfare losses occur due to separated carbon markets and the renewable quotas. The biofuel target has relatively small negative or even positive welfare effects in some scenarios.CGE model; Climate policy; EU; Biofuels;

Financing choices of firms in EU accession countries

The paper presents evidence of actual and target capital structures of firms in five EU accession countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania and Estonia). We consider the financial constraints of private companies and compare the level of indebtedness and the determinants firms’ choices of capital structure in selected EU accession countries and EU countries. A dynamic non-linear adjustment model is adopted to explicitly model the adjustment of a firm’s leverage to a target leverage.

Exchange Rate Risk and Convergence to the Euro

This paper proposes a new monetary policy framework for effectively navigating the path to adopting the euro. The proposed policy is based on relative inflation forecast targeting and incorporates an ancillary target of declining exchange rate risk, which is suggested as a key criterion for evaluating the currency stability. A model linking exchange rate volatility to differentials over the euro zone in both inflation (target variable) and interest rate (instrument variable) is proposed. The model is empirically tested for the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary, the selected new Member States of the EU that use direct inflation targeting to guide their monetary policies. The empirical methodology is based on the TARCH(p,q,r)-M model.exchange rate risk, inflation targeting, monetary convergence, euro area, new EU Member States

Mapping the course of the EU "Power Target Model"... on its own terms

The European Union took more than 20 years to start defining a common market design for its internal electricity market: a European Power Target Model. And, a further 10 years to fully implement it. Meanwhile, the reference generation set of that model has shifted from CCGT burning gas to RES units transforming intermittent natural resources. Could the existing EU target model continue to work well for the short- term operation and long-term investment? If not, can the existing EU institutions easily produce an "RES resilient" new power target model

Analysis of alpha-induced reactions on 151^{151}Eu below the Coulomb barrier

Novel measurements of $(\alpha,\gamma)$ and $(\alpha$,n) reaction cross sections on the target nucleus $^{151}$Eu, close to the reaction thresholds, support the setting up of recent parameters of the $\alpha$-particle optical model potential below the Coulomb barrier. A better understanding of the $\alpha$-particle optical potential at these energies leads to a statistical model analysis of additional partial cross sections that were formerly measured but not considered within the model analysis. On this basis we have tentatively assigned a modified $J^{\pi}$=9$^-$ spin and parity to the 22.7-h isomer in $^{154}$Tb.Comment: 3 pages, 2 figure

Integrating biofuels into the DART model: Analysing the effects of the EU 10% biofuel target

Biofuels and other forms of bioenergy have received increased attention in recent times: They have partly been acclaimed as an instrument to contribute to rural development, energy security and to fight global warming but have been increasingly come under attack for their potential to contribute to rising food prices. It has thus become clear that bioenergy cannot be evaluated independently of the rest of the economy and that national and international feedback effects are important. In this paper we describe how the CGE model DART is extended to include first-generation biofuel production technologies. DART can now be used to assess the efficiency of combined climate and bioenergy policies. As a first example the effects of a 10% biofuel target in the EU are analyzed.biofuels, CGE model, EU climate policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Integrating biofuels into the DART model: analysing the effects of the EU 10% biofuel target.

Bioenergie; Allgemeines Gleichgewicht; CGE-Modelling; Klimaschutz; Förderung regenerativer Energien; Wirkungsanalyse; EU-Staaten;

INCORPORATING BIOFUELS INTO A PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF THE EU AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

The impact of increased consumption of biofuels on agricultural markets has already been substantial, and will increase further as countries around the world seek to expand the proportion of their energy that they get from renewable sources. Models of the agricultural sector must therefore include some consideration of the demand for agricultural products for biofuels and the byproducts that are produced as part of the production process that are returned to the agricultural sector. In this paper the method of introducing biofuels into the FAPRI GOLD (grains, oilseeds, livestock and dairy) model is discussed. A scenario is run whereby the EU is assumed to introduce a binding 10% target by 2020 and the results are discussed in order to illustrate the workings of the model. The modelling effort is ongoing and planned work is discussed. The aim of the paper is to highlight major issues in building a model of this type.Biofuels, partial equilibrium model, agricultural sector, EU policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Supply of renewable energy sources and the cost of EU climate policy

What are the excess costs of a separate 20% target for renewable energy as a part of the EU climate policy for 2020? We answer this question using a computable general equilibrium model, WorldScan, which has been extended with a bottom-up module of the electricity sector. The model set-up makes it possible to directly use available estimates of costs and capacity potentials for renewable energy sources for calibration. In our base case simulation, the costs of EU climate policy with the renewables target are 6% higher than those of a policy without this target. As information on the supply of renewable energy is scarce and uncertain, we perform an extensive sensitivity analysis with respect to the level and steepness of the supply curves for wind energy and biomass. In the range we explore, the excess costs vary from zero (when the target is not binding) to 23% (when the cost progression and the initial cost disadvantage for renewables are doubled).

How to design Greenhouse Gas Trading in the EU?

Summary: A new and remarkable Green Paper about how to trade Greenhouse gases (GHG) in the EU has recently been published by the Commission of the European Union. This to achieve the stated 8% reduction target level. The Green Paper raises ten questions about how greenhouse gas permit trading should be designed in the EU before year 2005. These ten questions can be compressed into four main issues, namely target group, allocation of emission allowances, how to mix emission trading with other instruments and fourth enforcement. In the literature, there is a strong need to guide decision-makers and stimulate academic debates concerning the actual design of a simple and workable GHG market model for the EU. This model must take both economic, administrative and political concerns into account so that it is feasible in practice. Based on our findings, we therefore develop a policy recommendation concerning the future design of GHG permit trading in the EU.European Union; Energy policy; Greenhouse gases; CO2 emission; Permit trading design; Kyoto protocol; Electricity sector