Using aircraft location data to estimate current economic activity

Aviation is a key sector of the economy, contributing at least 3% to gross domestic product (GDP) in the UK and the US. Currently, airline performance statistics are published with a three month delay. However, aircraft now broadcast their location in real-time using the Automated Dependent Surveillance Broadcast system (ADS-B). In this paper, we analyse a global dataset of flights since July 2016. We first show that it is possible to accurately estimate airline flight volumes using ADS-B data, which is available immediately. Next, we demonstrate that real-time knowledge of flight volumes can be a leading indicator for aviation’s direct contribution to GDP in both the UK and the US. Using ADS-B data could therefore help move us towards real-time estimates of GDP, which would equip policymakers with the information to respond to shocks more quickly

Economic activity weakens

Economic indicators ; Economic conditions - United States

Economic activity accelerates

Economic conditions

Economic Activity and Institutions

This paper is one of two working papers concerning the waste management sector transition project run from MERIT under the direction of René Kemp. This paper examines some of the numerous meanings and interpretations associated with the words “institution” and “institutions” and the different levels at which the two notions are employed. Institutionalism, institutionalization, institutional change and related terms are discussed followed by an examination of the links between “institutionalism” and the discipline of economics. The analytical, policy and political implications of the institutionalist approach are discussed and ways in which the institutionalist approach may be applied to changes in the economy during transitions are explored.Institutions, Institutional Analysis, Scale, Policy

Expansion in economic activity

Economic conditions ; Industrial productivity

Political intervention in economic activity

This paper proposes a political economy explanation of bailouts to declining industries. A model of probabilistic voting is developed, in which two candidates compete for the vote of two groups of the society through tactical redistribution. We allow politicians to have core support groups they understand better, this implies politicians are more or less effective to deliver favors to some groups. This setting is suited to reproduce pork barrels or machine politics and patronage. We use this model to illustrate the case of an economy with both an efficient industryand a declining one, in which workers elect their government. We present the conditions under which the political process ends up with the lagged-behind industry being allowed to survive.probabilistic voting, redistribution, survival of inefficient firms, porkbarrels

Economic activity expanding more rapidly

Economic conditions

Money, debt and economic activity

Economic conditions - United States ; Economic indicators

Financial Stress and Economic Activity

This paper briefly summarizes the results presented in Claessens, Köse and Terrones (2008a, 2008b) to provide a set of basic stylized facts about the linkages between macroeconomic and financial variables during recessions and episodes of financial stress, including the periods of credit crunches and asset (house and equity) price busts. The analysis employs a comprehensive database of key macroeconomic and financial variables for 21 OECD countries over the 1960-2007 period. The results indicate that recessions following periods of financial stress are often longer and deeper than other recessions are. The paper concludes with a short discussion of the implications of its findings for the current crisisFinancial Stress, Economic Activity, Business Cycles