Forecasting real GDP: what role for narrow money?

JEL Classification: E41, E52, E58business cycle, forecast comparison, Money, VAR models

Measuring the time-inconsistency of US monetary policy

JEL Classification: E52, E58monetary policy, time-inconsistency, US, US monetary policy

Downward nominal wage rigidity and the long-run Philips Curve: simulation-based evidence for the euro area

JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58, E61Downward nominal wage rigidity, euro area, long-run Phillips curve, price stability

Comparing economic dynamics in the EU and CEE accession countries

JEL Classification: E32, E52, F31central and eastern Europe, exchange rate, Kalman filter, optimal currency area, Structural VAR

Definition of price stability, range and point inflation targets: the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations

JEL Classification: E52, E61, E31, E42, E43credibility, definition of price stability, inflation, inflation expectations, nominal anchor

Designing targeting rules for international monetary policy cooperation

JEL Classification: E52, F41, F42inflation target, Monetary policy cooperation, sticky prices, targeting rules, welfare analysis

The Angular Size and Proper Motion of the Afterglow of GRB 030329

The bright, nearby (z=0.1685) gamma-ray burst of 29 March 2003 has presented us with the first opportunity to directly image the expansion of a GRB. This burst reached flux density levels at centimeter wavelengths more than 50 times brighter than any previously studied event. Here we present the results of a VLBI campaign using the VLBA, VLA, Green Bank, Effelsberg, Arecibo, and Westerbork telescopes that resolves the radio afterglow of GRB 030329 and constrains its rate of expansion. The size of the afterglow is found to be \~0.07 mas (0.2 pc) 25 days after the burst, and 0.17 mas (0.5 pc) 83 days after the burst, indicating an average velocity of 3-5 c. This expansion is consistent with expectations of the standard fireball model. We measure the projected proper motion of GRB 030329 in the sky to <0.3 mas in the 80 days following the burst. In observations taken 52 days after the burst we detect an additional compact component at a distance from the main component of 0.28 +/- 0.05 mas (0.80 pc). The presence of this component is not expected from the standard model.Comment: 12 pages including 2 figures, LaTeX. Accepted to ApJ Letters on May 14, 200

Inflation persistence and monetary policy design: an overview

How monetary policy should be set optimally when the structure of the economy exhibits inflation persistence is an important question for policy makers. This paper provides an overview of the implications of inflation persistence for the design of monetary policy. JEL Classification: E52, E58Inflation persistence, optimal monetary policy, uncertainty