The long-run relationship between savings and investment in oil-exporting developing countries: A case study of the Gulf Arab States

The relationship between national saving and investment over the long term is examined for six Gulf Arab oil-exporting developing countries -- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. We show that, provided some large outliers are properly accounted for, long-run equilibrium relationships between saving and investment (both total and fixed) exist in these countries. Since these countries have typically large current account surpluses such relationships cannot be explained by standard arguments. Our hypothesis is that the response of investment to saving largely depends on domestic absorptive capacity.Saving-investment correlation; oil-exporting developing countries; GCC countries; absorptive capacity; outlier detection; integrated process.

Corporate Disclosure on Anti-Corruption Practice: A study of Social Responsible

This paper seeks to determine the extent of anti-corruption information disclosure in the sustainability reports originating from Gulf countries. Focus primarily on the fight against corruption, this study utilizes a deeply-rooted content analysis technique of corporate sustainability reporting, covering 66 Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) firms during 2014. Strengthened by the application of institutional theory, insight into the results points to a state of limited maturity regarding the disclosure of anti-corruption procedures in the region. More specifically, the results highlight the compliance in the reporting of conduct code, while reporting information on whistle-blowing was significantly less in comparison. Firms in Qatar and UAE ultimately release better informed reports; inclusive of detailed information on internal anti-corruption practices

The Gulf Cooperation Council countries – economic structures, recent developments and role in the global economy

In the wake of high and rising oil prices since 2003, the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have seen dynamic economic development, enhancing their role in the global economy as investors and trade partners. Real GDP growth has been buoyant, with non-oil activity expanding faster than oil GDP. Macroeconomic developments have also been characterised by large fiscal and current account surpluses as a result of rising oil revenues, notwithstanding fiscal expansion and rapid import growth. The most significant macroeconomic challenge faced by GCC countries is rising inflation in an environment in which the contribution of monetary policy to containing inflationary pressure is constrained by the exchange rate regimes. The overall favourable macroeconomic backdrop of recent years has provided GCC countries with an opportunity to tackle long-standing structural challenges, such as the diversification of oil-centred economies and reform of the labour markets. In a global context, apart from developing into a pole of global economic growth, GCC countries – together with other oil-exporting countries – have become a major net supplier of capital in global markets, second only to East Asia. As a result, they have become part of the international policy debate on global imbalances. Furthermore, GCC countries are home to some of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds, which raises several financial stability issues. Their role as trade partners has also increased, with the European Union being the only major region in the world maintaining a significant surplus in bilateral trade with the GCC. GCC countries are also key players in global energy markets in terms of production, exports and the availability of spare capacity. Their role is likely to become even more pivotal in the future as they command vast oil and gas reserves and benefit from relatively low costs in exploiting oil reserves. JEL Classification: F40, F30, F14, E60, N15, O53, Q40.Gulf Cooperation Council, global imbalances, sovereign wealth funds, financial stability, oil markets.

Oil prices and stock markets: what drives what in the Gulf Corporation Council countries?

In the empirical literature, only few studies have focused on the relationship between oil prices and stock markets in net oil-importing countries. In net oil-exporting countries this relationship has not been widely researched. This paper implements the panel-data approach of Kónya (2006), which is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country-specific bootstrap critical values to study the sensitivity of stock markets to oil prices in GCC (Gulf Corporation Council) countries. Using two different (weekly and monthly) datasets covering respectively the periods from 7 June 2005 to 21 October 2008, and from January 1996 to December 2007, we show strong statistical evidence that the causal relationship is consistently bi-directional for Saudi Arabia. Stock market price changes in the other GCC member countries do not Granger cause oil price changes, whereas oil price shocks Granger cause stock price changes. Therefore, investors in GCC stock markets should look at the changes in oil prices, whereas investors in oil markets should look at changes in the Saudi stock market.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64354/1/wp960.pd

The insurance sector in the Middle East and North Africa : challenges and development agenda

This paper studies the causes of the low development of the insurance sector in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region, particularly for long term insurance. The paper shows that life and non-life premiums, as well as assets, are very low relative to expected levels given per capita income and demographic characteristics, and examines the causes of such poor performance. There is a wide range of factors constraining the development of the industry, including the absence of mandatory insurance in key areas, the predominant presence of the state in some countries, gaps in regulation and supervision, unsupportive tax regimes, fragmented market structures, a chronic lack of suitably skilled people, as well as the absence of products that conform with cultural/religious preferences, especially in the case of life insurance. The lack of development of the insurance sector is a matter of concern, as research shows that the sector can contribute to both financial and economic development. Key recommendations to accelerate the development of the sector include wider introduction of mandatory insurance lines that have clear positive externalities, continuing the privatization process for government owned insurers, employing non capital techniques to force rationalization of insurance sectors with too many small and inefficient players, removing tax distortions, taking steps to stabilize motor third party liability markets (typically the largest line of business), strengthening reporting and disclosure, regulating banc-assurance, improving consumer protection, further developing Takaful long term insurance ('Family Insurance'), and establishing regional centers of excellence for skills development.Insurance Law,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Debt Markets,Climate Change Economics,Emerging Markets

Has the non-oil sector decoupled from oil sector? A case study of Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

As oil and gas are exhaustible resources, the need for economic diversification has gained momentum in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries immediately after the end of the first oil boom in 1973-74. Economic diversification, in the context of GCC countries, implies development of the non-oil sector and reduction of the proportion of government revenue and export proceeds from the oil and gas sector. Applying newly developed measures of business cycle synchronicity between oil and non-oil sectors in three GCC economies (Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia), we show both the degree of diversification achieved so far and the direction of diversification in terms of individual non-oil sectors. Overall, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia appear to be moderately ahead than Qatar in reducing their dependence on oil. Nevertheless, by developing large production capacities of natural gas, Qatar has recently reduced its dependence on oil in favor of natural gas. A quantitative assessment of the determinants of business cycle synchronization is also provided.Business cycle; Synchronization; Oil price; Fiscal policy; GCC countries

Economic Policy, Institutional Development, and Income Growth: How Arab Countries Compare with Other Developing Countries

Similar to most other developing countries, almost all Arab countries failed to catch up economically with advanced industrial countries. This paper discusses three possible explanations of the disappointing growth performance: (i) an insufficient reformmindedness of developing country governments, (ii) counterproductive policy recipes of the Washington Consensus and (iii) more deeply rooted barriers to growth related to institutional deficiencies prevailing in various developing countries. The empirical evidence for Arab countries and other developing countries provides little support to the first two hypotheses. By contrast, institutional development is shown to have a significant impact on policy-related variables and the growth performance of developing countries. For Arab countries as a group, institutional development is more advanced than for the control group of other developing countries. Yet, serious institutional deficiencies tend to constrain future growth in several Arab countries. These findings have important implications for national policymakers and the international community.Washington Consensus, implementation deficits, effectiveness of reforms, institutional growth determinants