CASTNet: Community-Attentive Spatio-Temporal Networks for Opioid Overdose Forecasting

Opioid overdose is a growing public health crisis in the United States. This crisis, recognized as "opioid epidemic," has widespread societal consequences including the degradation of health, and the increase in crime rates and family problems. To improve the overdose surveillance and to identify the areas in need of prevention effort, in this work, we focus on forecasting opioid overdose using real-time crime dynamics. Previous work identified various types of links between opioid use and criminal activities, such as financial motives and common causes. Motivated by these observations, we propose a novel spatio-temporal predictive model for opioid overdose forecasting by leveraging the spatio-temporal patterns of crime incidents. Our proposed model incorporates multi-head attentional networks to learn different representation subspaces of features. Such deep learning architecture, called "community-attentive" networks, allows the prediction of a given location to be optimized by a mixture of groups (i.e., communities) of regions. In addition, our proposed model allows for interpreting what features, from what communities, have more contributions to predicting local incidents as well as how these communities are captured through forecasting. Our results on two real-world overdose datasets indicate that our model achieves superior forecasting performance and provides meaningful interpretations in terms of spatio-temporal relationships between the dynamics of crime and that of opioid overdose.Comment: Accepted as conference paper at ECML-PKDD 201

Social Attention: Modeling Attention in Human Crowds

Robots that navigate through human crowds need to be able to plan safe, efficient, and human predictable trajectories. This is a particularly challenging problem as it requires the robot to predict future human trajectories within a crowd where everyone implicitly cooperates with each other to avoid collisions. Previous approaches to human trajectory prediction have modeled the interactions between humans as a function of proximity. However, that is not necessarily true as some people in our immediate vicinity moving in the same direction might not be as important as other people that are further away, but that might collide with us in the future. In this work, we propose Social Attention, a novel trajectory prediction model that captures the relative importance of each person when navigating in the crowd, irrespective of their proximity. We demonstrate the performance of our method against a state-of-the-art approach on two publicly available crowd datasets and analyze the trained attention model to gain a better understanding of which surrounding agents humans attend to, when navigating in a crowd

Finding Temporally Consistent Occlusion Boundaries in Videos using Geometric Context

We present an algorithm for finding temporally consistent occlusion boundaries in videos to support segmentation of dynamic scenes. We learn occlusion boundaries in a pairwise Markov random field (MRF) framework. We first estimate the probability of an spatio-temporal edge being an occlusion boundary by using appearance, flow, and geometric features. Next, we enforce occlusion boundary continuity in a MRF model by learning pairwise occlusion probabilities using a random forest. Then, we temporally smooth boundaries to remove temporal inconsistencies in occlusion boundary estimation. Our proposed framework provides an efficient approach for finding temporally consistent occlusion boundaries in video by utilizing causality, redundancy in videos, and semantic layout of the scene. We have developed a dataset with fully annotated ground-truth occlusion boundaries of over 30 videos ($5000 frames). This dataset is used to evaluate temporal occlusion boundaries and provides a much needed baseline for future studies. We perform experiments to demonstrate the role of scene layout, and temporal information for occlusion reasoning in dynamic scenes.Comment: Applications of Computer Vision (WACV), 2015 IEEE Winter Conference o

Effects on orientation perception of manipulating the spatio–temporal prior probability of stimuli

Spatial and temporal regularities commonly exist in natural visual scenes. The knowledge of the probability structure of these regularities is likely to be informative for an efficient visual system. Here we explored how manipulating the spatio–temporal prior probability of stimuli affects human orientation perception. Stimulus sequences comprised four collinear bars (predictors) which appeared successively towards the foveal region, followed by a target bar with the same or different orientation. Subjects' orientation perception of the foveal target was biased towards the orientation of the predictors when presented in a highly ordered and predictable sequence. The discrimination thresholds were significantly elevated in proportion to increasing prior probabilities of the predictors. Breaking this sequence, by randomising presentation order or presentation duration, decreased the thresholds. These psychophysical observations are consistent with a Bayesian model, suggesting that a predictable spatio–temporal stimulus structure and an increased probability of collinear trials are associated with the increasing prior expectation of collinear events. Our results suggest that statistical spatio–temporal stimulus regularities are effectively integrated by human visual cortex over a range of spatial and temporal positions, thereby systematically affecting perception